Six different Eastern Conference teams have sole control of the No. 1 at some point this season. Four of them since the end of January. One of the teams currently split for the top spot has never kept it to themselves… but the teams currently seeded at No. 9 and No. 12 have both done so for significant stretches. Now, with just weeks into the regular season, the race for home field advantage took its craziest turn yet.
The Miami Heat lost four games in a row last week. Before last Monday’s game against the Philadelphia 76ers, they were heavily favored in first place. On Sunday, their fourth straight loss gave them 28 overall, one behind Philadelphia and Milwaukee on 27. Then the Bucks lost to the Grizzlies on Saturday and the 76ers lost to the Suns on Sunday. Suddenly all three teams had 28 losses. So did the rising Boston Celtics, who lost their 24th game on Jan. 21. Since then they have only lost four times. Now the four Eastern Conference powerhouses are bogged down in the loss column. Boston and Miami have seven games left. Milwaukee and Philadelphia have eight.
Even more complicated matters? One of those four teams could be underdogs in the first round… and we have no idea which one. Brooklyn preseason favorites currently sit at No. 9, but will likely end up at either No. 7 or No. 8 once the play-in dust settles. Some teams will be much more eager to face them than others. So with the home straight, let’s dive deeper into each of the four teams currently battling for the top spot. How easy will their paths to home field advantage be, and how much do they even want it?
Boston Celtics
How clear is your path? Most analysis models favor Boston to earn first place at this stage. FiveThirtyEight, for example, ranks the Celtics as the only Eastern Conference team with 52 wins, while the Bucks, Sixers and Heat have 51 wins each. This model responds to how Boston has been playing less recently than the trail before them. The Celtics are not only 24:4 in the last 28 games. They absolutely decimate their opponents. The NBA has tracked net scoring since the 1996-97 season. During that period, the best all-season mark ever achieved by a team belongs to the 1996-97 Bulls, up 11.8. The Celtics have been up-16.4 since Jan. 22.
But if they want the #1 seed, they have to earn it. The Celtics have the third-toughest remaining game schedule in the NBA. That includes a home date with the Heat on Wednesday and a trip to Milwaukee on April 7 that could decide the matter. It’s also not clear how healthy they will be for these games. Robert Williams III will have his knee checked on Monday after suffering an injury on Sunday, but Boston coach Imo Udoka said Williams was in “quite a pain.” Without him, Boston’s fearsome defense looks a little more beatable. The Celtics play the best basketball in the east and that might be enough to put them ahead, but they still have probably the toughest task ahead of the four contenders.
How bad do you want it? Seeding probably doesn’t mean all that much to Boston, all things considered. Boston’s absurd net rating during this series was even better on the road (up-17.6), and from a matchup perspective, they’re better equipped to face Brooklyn than anyone else in the Eastern Conference. Most teams don’t have a single adequate defender for Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. Boston has several players who can handle both. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have proven they are up to the task of defending Durant. Marcus Smart and Derrick White are a perfect combination for Irving. The Celtics should be fine no matter where they end up.
intense heat
How clear is your path? If the Heat can just pull themselves together, they still have a pretty good shot at this one. Only Philadelphia has an easier schedule in the East’s top 4, and amazingly, the Heat are probably healthier than they’ve been all season. Their Wednesday date with Boston is an extremely precarious matchup for them, but any lingering doubt they may have can be erased with a pallet cleaner at home against Kings Monday.
Of course, we have no idea what’s going on in Miami right now. Tensions seem to be easing after a row between Jimmy Butler, Udonis Haslem and Erik Spoelstra. These issues may not be resolved in the time it would take Miami to gain home field advantage. It’s for takeout, but Miami might not be particularly motivated to snag it.
How bad do you want it? A team as proud as the Heat would never admit it, but Miami shouldn’t want a part of Brooklyn in the first round. The Heat have the clutch injury ranked No. 26 in the NBA, reflecting the half-court troubles they will face in the slower postseason. They’re extremely dependent on Tyler Herro to generate late-game baskets, but as Philadelphia proved last week, the downside to that is that Herro is an incredibly vulnerable defender. Irving and Durant would chase him off the ground. Jimmy Butler probably can’t match two goalscorers like Brooklyn, who are about as immune to Miami’s stellar defense as two offensive players due to Durant’s height and Irving’s ball handling. A matchup with the Raptors, Bulls, or Cavaliers wouldn’t exactly be easy, but it would be far more palatable than one with the Nets.
Milwaukee Bucks
How clear is your path? Milwaukee’s upcoming list is almost as difficult as Boston’s. They have a matchup with the Celtics in April, as well as street games in Brooklyn and Philadelphia this week. That gives them the sixth-toughest remaining schedule overall, and with Brook Lopez and Pat Connaughton slowly being reintegrated into the rotation, the Bucks could be forgiven for prioritizing updating their roster over winning games.
Yet the Bucks are 10-3 in their last 13, and when they had all three of their stars, they looked as strong as ever. This trio outperforms opponents by almost 10 points per 100 possessions when they were on the floor together, and now that the Bucks are regaining their depth, there’s no reason to think they can’t stay hot if they want to. If they can take care of business at home against Boston in April, they’re likely favorites at that point to earn the No. 1 seed. You have the highest floor of all four contenders.
How bad do you want it? It’s easy to forget, but last year’s Bucks really relied on their home court to win in the postseason. Milwaukee lost seven games in the 2021 playoffs. Six were on the way. It’s anecdotal, but it’s the old adage that roleplayers are better at home, and Milwaukee should seemingly make home play a priority, especially since their roster relies so heavily on roleplayers around Giannis Antetokounmpo making 3-pointers. Even if the Bucks were playing a compromised version of the Nets a year ago, their win likely gave them a level of confidence against Brooklyn that would carry over into a playoff rematch. The Bucks probably want the No. 1 as much as any of their competitors. It’s the best possible position for them to start their championship defense.
Philadelphia 76ers
How clear is your path? The 76ers play the Bucks in what is by far their biggest game of the regular season on Monday. After? It’s smooth sailing. After the Bucks, they have no more games against any of the top-five seeds in either conference, and half of their remaining competitions are played with the Pistons and Pacers. Predicting tiebreaks at this point would be foolish. There are too many iterations of this four-sided standoff to understand how each compares to one another. But there’s a 7-1 run on the table for the Sixers if they try.
How bad do you want it? They just haven’t been that particular lately. Both Joel Embiid and James Harden have missed games due to injury management. Nothing wrong with that. With the playoffs approaching, that’s a sensible strategy. But it suggests seeding isn’t a top priority for Philadelphia right now. They probably went into last week’s matchup with the Heat, expecting to be defeated, only to be surprised when Tyrese Maxey and Shake Milton stole a win just below Miami.
The 76ers probably weren’t hoping to lose that game, but winning it wasn’t exactly positive either. Philadelphia wants nothing to do with the Nets. Forget the personal vendetta that Irving and Durant have against Harden and just think of the matchups. Matisse Thybulle, more of a team defender than a man defender, can only mark one of them. Who takes the other? Is there anything Tobias Harris can do to slow down Durant? Would Danny Green, mid-30s, be remotely able to stay ahead of Irving? Thybulle’s presence on the floor doesn’t do the offensive any favors either. It’s not a slam dunk that he’s playing starting minutes. In truth, avoiding the nets probably means more to 76ers than a big seed. They have the best road record in the Eastern Conference at 25-12. Matchups are more important to them than venues.