If you’re betting on the NBA’s Rookie of the Year award ahead of the season, bet on Paolo Banchero. I usually strive for a little more nuance in these award previews, but if Banchero stays healthy, he’s the overwhelming favorite to win the award based on precedent. He is now available at +225 on Caesars Sportsbook. He would still be a good value bet at even money.
Chet Holmgren’s injury is part of that, but it goes much deeper. Winning Rookie of the Year largely means hoarding possessions. We saw this game last season when Evan Mobley lost to Scottie Barnes despite having arguably the best defensive season in rookie history. Barnes had more leeway to give numbers and that gave him the slightest advantage when the votes were tallied.
Since 2006, only two great men have won this award: Karl-Anthony Towns and Blake Griffin. Griffin’s Clippers traded their starting point guard mid-season. Towns had Ricky Rubio as a point guard, one of the NBA’s most selfless lead ball handlers. They were both put in positions to handle the ball and score a lot of points. They did. It is an opportunity that is offered to very few beginners. Since 2006, only 40 of them have averaged 15 points per game. Of those 40, 16 became Rookie of the Year, meaning a rookie averaging 15 points per game has about a 40 percent chance of winning the award.
You won’t be surprised to hear what kind of beginners get the chance to score so many points. Since Chris Paul won in 2006, every winner except Malcolm Brogdon has been drawn in the lottery. Six winners were No. 1 overall, two finished second, and five others finished in the top five. Essentially, this means we’re looking for high-draft picks that have the leeway to handle the ball and score.
Why does this point us to Banchero? Well, let’s take a look at the next few picks in the 2022 NBA Draft. Holmgren is out for the year. Jabari Smith, a limited ball handler who was drafted more for his shooting and defense, plays on a Houston team with Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. Green is one of Houston’s key ball handlers, averaging fewer than four assists per 100 possessions scored , an extraordinarily low number. To put it in perspective, the 3.9 assists per 100 possessions he’s been averaging just now is JJ Redick’s career mark. Porter’s assist numbers were much better a season ago, and he’s really evolved as a playmaker since Houston moved him to point guard. But he is still a first goalscorer in a contract year. Smith could one day be a better player than Banchero but is unlikely to get the ball enough to surpass him as a freshman.
We’ll get to Keegan Murray, No. 4 overall, and Benedict Mathurin, No. 6 overall, in a moment, but Jaden Ivey, No. 5, is a shaky shooter who joins Cade Cunningham’s team. The sky’s the limit for him as the shot improves, but this season the touches probably won’t be there. Shaedon Sharpe, number 7, is on Damian Lillard’s team and sits behind Anfernee Simons and Josh Hart in the pecking order. No. 8 pick Dyson Daniels and No. 9 Pick Jeremy Sochan are mainly defenders at this stage of their career. No. 10 pick Johnny Davis struggles for minutes with three established NBA starters and two recent lottery picks. That rounds out the top 10. Not particularly encouraging, is it?
All of this brings us back to Banchero, drafted in as an offensive lynchpin on a team without a single proven guard on his roster. None of us can say for sure what kind of NBA player Banchero will be 10 years from now, but even if he’s a bust, there are plenty of precedents for such players to win that honor. Michael Carter-Williams and Tyreke Evans are Rookie of the Year winners. There is very little correlation between this award and future success. It’s about releasing numbers in a debut season.
OK, so we found Banchero to be the best value on the board at +225. Are there other players worth snooping on? If you really want to diversify your Rookie of the Year portfolio, I consider the following players to be sensible sleepers. (Odds below courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.)
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Keegan Murray, Kings (+430)
Murray won’t be a primary ball handler, but he does play on a team with two generous ones. Domantas Sabonis is the best passing center west of Nikola Jokic, and De’Aaron Fox’s speed creates so much gravity towards the edge that a shooter like Murray should get plenty of open looks both inside and outside the arc. His mid-range game complements Fox’s driving style and the rest of Sacramento’s shooters quite well, and part of the appeal of drawing him fourth was that he’s already 22. This isn’t a teenager who could help down the line. The kings chose him to help him now.
That’s the real reason for this bet. The Kings are desperate for a play-in push, and Murray will get narrative momentum if he helps them get one. While narrative help is intangible, the workload is quantifiable. The Kings won’t load Murray if he’s essential to the win. In a crowded Western Conference, he records enough minutes to post numbers by default.
This was a much more attractive bet before Holmgren got injured. Betting markets often call for a second favorite as a hedge against hefty tickets to a single contestant, and Murray found himself in that position almost automatically. Banchero simply has fewer teammates to get in the way of his own offense. In addition to Fox and Sabonis, Murray has to fight for touches with Malik Monk, Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, Richaun Holmes and Davion Mitchell. There’s a lot of mouths to feed in Sacramento. That just doesn’t apply to the Magic. When you bet on Murray, you’re betting on the Kings making a serious playoff push. It will take that to close what is likely to be a significant statistical gap between him and the favourite.
Malcolm Brogdon is gone. Buddy Hield and Myles Turner could be joining him soon. The team is now firmly owned by Tyrese Haliburton, but any games he misses are winnable, and in a clear tanking season, minor scrapes and bruises tend to turn into lengthy absences. The point here is that there are a lot of shots in Indiana, and apart from Chris Duarte, there just aren’t that many Pacers looking to take them.
Stylistically, Mathurin should play pretty well against Haliburton when they’re in the lineup together. His best trait is his jump shot, but he’s powerful enough to kill overzealous defenders that get close. He’s not yet an accomplished pick and roll technician, but he doesn’t have to be. It’s not like Banchero and Murray are expected to post gaudy assist numbers.
In truth, I’d probably wait until preseason to make that bet. We don’t yet know how Indiana will set up its lineups. Does Mathurin start? It is more likely that he will come off the bench behind Duarte. How many times will Rick Carlisle play Three Wardens? His history suggests he’ll think about it. The odds shouldn’t change too much here until opening night, so there’s no reason to jump on this bet.
Much the same logic applies to Agbaji as to Mathurin, but you are three times as likely to get him. He’s on a team that’s currently being ripped to the bone. There will be no shortage of shots for Agbaji, and it doesn’t hurt that he’s set to come into the NBA as a relatively strong defender. He’s also a four-year-old college player, so the learning curve won’t be too steep. It wouldn’t be very surprising to see Agbaji starting alongside Collin Sexton in Utah backcourt if the Jazz manage to trade Mike Conley ahead of opening night.
The obvious downside here is that while Agbaji is an excellent shot, he’s not a great ball handler. He’s also on Sexton’s team and Sexton isn’t exactly known for his death. If you’re looking for a Utah long shot bet, Sexton looks a lot more appealing at +5000 for Most Improved Player.
OK, the total of all totals. Everything that applied to Smith applies to Washington. The difference is that you get one at +650 and the other at 100-to-1. Washington probably won’t play enough minutes to win, or even seriously contend for, that award. But Porter is volatile and until he signs a contract extension, he’s a commercial candidate by default. If he or Green get hurt, Washington would be entitled to serious minutes just because he’s young on a tanking team.
I bet on it? no But if you’re looking for the longest long shots, check out guards who have minutes, even if those include injuries. For the same reason, Jaden Hardy at +5000 is a reasonably reasonable lottery ticket given that Jalen Brunson just left Dallas and Spencer Dinwiddie has an extensive injury history. I wouldn’t bet on him either, but that’s the formula for a non-top pick. Brogdon won his second-round pick honors after the Bucks traded acting point guard Michael Carter-Williams nine days into the season. The odds don’t really reflect how unlikely something like this was, but there’s precedent for it if you’re looking for one.