The Athletic has live coverage of UConn vs. San Diego State in the National Championship.
It’s hard to believe, but there’s only one game left this 2022-23 college basketball season. It’s been a happy, choppy ride but we have a great duel that will see us across the finish line. And I have another chance to finish against the spread above .500 in the 2023 NCAA men’s tournament.
Therefore, I present to you my One Shining Prediction. Enjoy the game tonight and thanks for riding with me all season.
NCAA Tournament 2023: 33-33
Regular Season 2022-23: 45-30
Today’s line is via BetMGM.
No. 4 UConn (-7 1/2) vs. No. 5 San Diego State, 9:20 p.m. ET, CBS. Miami is a really good basketball team, but for most of Saturday night, UConn kept the Hurricanes looking positive. The Huskies went 14-4 up (courtesy of two 3-pointers from 6-9 junior forward Adama Sanogo), leading by 13 at halftime, building their lead to just a short one early in the second half Period on 20 from where Miami closed on eight was never threatened en route to a 72-59 yawn.
That was impressive enough, but especially considering the Huskies didn’t even have their A-game. Their best player, Jordan Hawkins, suffered from a stomach problem that limited him to 13 points. Their top playmaker and glue guy, Andre Jackson Jr., got into trouble early in the first half, having six points and four assists in 22 minutes. All of UConn’s eight rotation players scored, led by Sanogo’s 21 points and 10 rebounds. By the time the championship game begins, Hawkins will have had another 48 hours to rest and recover, Jackson will be eager to use his mulligan and the rest of the Huskies will be full of confidence knowing they are on the greatest able to contribute on stage when her team needed her most.
The performance was just an extension of what UConn did during this tournament. Each of the Huskies’ five wins was in double figures. They blitzed a really good Gonzaga team by 28 points into the Elite Eight. They have everything a team needs to win a national championship – shooting, size, speed, athleticism, deep rebounds, efficient defense, the ability to score inside and outside, and play on the half court or in the transition zone. And they have a tenacious head coach who descends from basketball kings.
San Diego State, meanwhile, has won each of its last two games by a single point, including Saturday’s dramatic triumph over Florida Atlantic thanks to Lamont Butler’s game-winner. The Aztecs play fantastic defense – they rank No. 4 in adjusted efficiency at KenPom nationally – but they showed some vulnerability to FAU. The Aztecs advanced to the semifinals after holding their opponents in the tournament with 17 percent 3-point shooting, but the Owls lost 41 percent in their 22 attempts and scored 71 points. SDSU also got just one more rebound, despite the Owls being 328th in height at KenPom. UConn is 28th in height, and the Huskies are also No. 2 in the country in offensive rebound percentage. So that’s another area the Aztecs are used to dominating but will play evenly (or possibly at a disadvantage) tonight.
There are two ways San Diego State can create this excitement. The first is to make it a grueling half-court affair. That’s very plausible. The Aztecs have averaged just 10.0 turnovers per game in tournaments and kept their opponents at 60.0 points per game. When it comes to setting the pace, the team that wants to play slow always has the edge over the team that wants to play fast. At the very least, that would be reason to believe that San Diego State can stay close enough to cover that sizeable point spread. UConn is clearly the better team, but 7 1/2 points is a lot of wood in a national championship game.
The other way San Diego State could win is by shooting lights from a 3-point range. That’s implausible. The Aztecs have averaged 19.9 3-point attempts per game this season, which ranks 264th in the country, and they account for 33.3 percent of the tournament as a team. Their top scorer, 6-4 senior guard Matt Bradley, finally broke his trough on Saturday night with 21 points on 4 of 8 3-point shots, but he will face one of the best full-backs in the country tonight in Jackson. There’s no doubt UConn coach Dan Hurley will tell Jackson that it’s his job to make sure Bradley doesn’t get clean looks, forcing the fellow Aztecs to make amends. These guys have risen at times (Butler and 5-10 senior guard Darrion Trammell in particular) but to win a national championship your best players need to be at their best. Jackson will ensure that Bradley is not at his best.
Certainly there are plenty of reasons why the state of San Diego is in this game. Still, like Saturday night in Miami, the Aztecs will be overwhelmed by a superior opponent who will play to their full potential. We can look for ways that San Diego State could win this game, or at least come close, but that would require us to look deep into the dirt when the woods are telling us something obvious. UConn will control this game, knock down the free throws required to salt it away and win by double digits to clinch the school’s fifth NCAA championship. The choice: UConn
(Photo by Matt Bradley: Gregory Shamus/Getty Images