Houston vs Villanova Odds
Houston may be the No. 5 seed by the selection committee, but the Cougars are the best team left on the field, according to KenPom and Bart Torvik.
The Cougars have a chance to reach their second straight Final Four on Saturday when they take on Villanova in San Antonio.
Houston made the Elite Eight by winning Illinois and Arizona – the top two seeds – in a dominant fashion. Defensive ball pressure, offensive rebounding, and athleticism saw Houston win back-to-back top-15 and top-5 teams.
Villanova also won and covered the spread in all three games of the NCAA Tournament, beating No. 15 in Delaware and then knocking out Big Ten teams in Ohio and Michigan states. Wildcat victories were rarely in doubt as Villanova landed enough attacks to counter comeback attempts from Bucky and the Wolverine.
The Wildcats have not faced top 20 Kenpa since November, when they lost 57-36 to Baylor.
Villanova has faced a challenging schedule outside of conferences, won the Big East tournament and is a very experienced team. But he hasn’t seen a ball-pressing defense like the Cougars in a long time, and that’s where this matchup is likely to be decided.
Houston held Arizona by just 0.96 points per possession in their Thursday Night Sweet 16 contest, the third-lowest of the Wildcats season.
The Cougars used their elite offensive rebounds to control the pace and slow the game to a halt. Once preventing Arizona from making an effective transition and forcing them to play half court, turnover problems and the Wildcats’ inability to reach the rim easily halted one of the nation’s most elite offenses.
Unlike Arizona, Villanova will be more than happy to play this half-court game. Both teams live half court offensively, and Villanova’s offense against the Houston defense is the key battle of the game. I think the Cougars have a few matchup advantages that the typically elite offense run by the Wildcats can be a concern.
The Villanova attack forces teams to change everything and then tries to exploit inconsistencies on the perimeter.
The Wildcats have a ton of shots with the ball – 10th in pick-and-roll frequency, but the Cougars are ranked 15th in the nation in pick-and-roll defense according to ShotQuality. One of the main reasons for this is their ability to switch and stay under the radar, as Michigan and Ohio State did in their last two games against Villanova.
Houston also has an elite post-up defense that doubles up every time and makes the ball spin around the perimeter. Villanova likes to put up her defense and reverse her offense, but the Cougars are athletic enough to throw doubles when needed and still spin around the perimeter to compete with jumpers. Houston is the best defense after the up according to ShotQuality.
The Wildcats love to throw triples and they do it very effectively, but one of the main elements of Calvin Sampson’s team is an elite three-point defense. Cougars guard the perimeter with the 10th best speed in the entire country.
If there’s one area where Villanova can excel offensively, it’s on the free throw line, as Houston fouls a lot due to his aggression. Villanova is the best free kick team of all time.
But otherwise, Houston’s choke pressure could cause serious problems for Collin Gillespie and the rest of the Wildcats’ offensive players.
Villanova’s offense is usually one of the best-run units in the entire country, but this season the Wildcats have struggled with teams that are putting more pressure on the ball.
The Wildcats’ defense really wrecked Tennessee in the out-of-conference game, but the offense scored just 0.60 PPP against Baylor, 0.97 PPP in St. John’s and 1.03 PPP against Red Storm in the Big East Tournament. All of these teams are elite in forcing losses and like to spread the press from time to time like Houston.
If a team can apply enough pressure to prevent Villanova from delivering his accurate offense, it could make things very difficult for this group.
Due to their undersized size, the Wildcats also have a hard time picking up defensive rebounding and are only 196th in that category. Houston’s elite offensive rebounding ability will earn second chance points in a game that won’t feature many possessions.
The Wildcats have looked great in this tournament so far, but both OSU and Michigan have been matchups that stylistically favor Villanova’s offense. Neither of them was going to give up to Villanova, and neither of them had the ability to switch 1-5, which is necessary for an effective defense.
Houston is a much better perimeter defender than both, and even the ShotQuality reports may chill the idea that Villanova is playing right now.
Although the Wildcats won those two games by 10 and 8 points respectively, SQ only won by 4 and 2 points. Michigan missed a lot of layups, and Ohio State conceded a few times in the last minutes thanks to their great looks.
These matches were almost tailor-made for Villanova, but they will have a much harder time on offense on Saturday given the inability to get clean looks from the perimeter and Cougar’s ability to switch.
Houston vs. Villanova Bet Picks
If it’s a close game at the end of the game, there is one major area where Villanova has the upper hand. The Wildcats shoot better free throws than any other team in NCAA history, and the Cougars are only 327th in free throw percentage. It’s a scary thought for the Cougars in a game that’s only two matches long, meaning closeness is expected in the final four minutes.
With that said, Houston point guard Jamal Shed may be two inches shorter than Villanova’s Gillespie, but I expect Shed’s athleticism and defensive prowess to really cause Gillespie problems. He is one of the best perimeter defenders in the country.
Just as Baylor and SJU rocked Gillespie by pressing the ball throughout the game, the Houston team’s defense could upset the Wildcats.
Houston’s offense isn’t always pretty and he doesn’t have a lot of shots, but Villanova’s mediocre defensive rebounding numbers mean Houston will win on shot count.
If the first or second chance doesn’t work, Houston will get more shots in this game. And even if they are less effective, the Cougars will book their place in the Final Four for the second year in a row.
The market opened at -1.5 in Houston, and was immediately bet to -2/-2.5. He has since settled on the Cougars-2 as the market finally shows proper respect for the Sampson group.
In a game between two elite coaches and two elite teams, Houston’s key matchup advantages are significant enough for me to score two points. I wouldn’t bet more than two as I expect this game to be close.