In theory, the arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court in The Hague against Vladimir Putin would change little in the prospects for the negotiations. Neither the United States, Russia nor China signed the treaty establishing the supranational court (Rome Conference, 1998). From a purely legal point of view, it would still be possible to sit Joe Biden, Putin and Xi Jinping around the table. Perhaps Volodymyr Zelenskyy could also be there, since Ukraine has signed the agreement but not ratified it. The countries accepting the jurisdiction of the court are 123 but the appeal is absent, including India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Algeria. All more or less candidates for a hypothetical peace summit. The point is, we’re not going in that direction.
The Hague initiative reinforces a dynamic that is already very clear. Over time, the hard line of the Poles and Balts remained the only visible one, at least in Europe. Since the exposure of the Bucha massacres (April 1, 2022), Franco-German pressure to keep the dialogue with the Kremlin open has weakened until it faded.
Then, of course, there is the United States. Joe Biden has been gradually arming Zelenskyy, trying to avoid a dangerous escalation of the conflict and hoping that Putin will be persuaded to stop. At the same time, the White House has never made a concrete diplomatic proposal. Not because he didn’t have one, but because he didn’t want to burst the divide in Europe between the hardliners in the East and the “aperturists” in the West. On March 2, Foreign Minister Antony Blinken met again with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in New Delhi. Perhaps a last call, if only for a truce. Rejected.
Then came the radical change. On Wednesday, March 15, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin concluded the meeting with colleagues from the more than 50 countries supplying arms to Kiev by saying, “We have no more time to waste. We are assembling the weapons and military tools that will enable the Ukrainians to regain lost territory.” The counteroffensive is rumored to start in May.
Pentagon generals believe Putin’s army and Wagner’s mercenary militias are exhausted and low on ammunition. They can be beaten if not overwhelmed provided you put in the extra effort and do it quickly.