FROM OUR REPORTER
WARSAW – In Warsaw, Joe Biden spoke as the “supreme commander” of the entire West. It will be the American President who will set the course for the new phase of the war. How is the White House moving? Here’s what we get, point by point. The Americans are convinced that the conflict will last much longer, but nobody dares to predict. In Washington, it is believed that Vladimir Putin still believes he can bend the Ukrainian resistance, even as the Russian army faces mounting problems. Cynical but sadly relevant observation, however, the Biden administration believes Putin will keep throwing new troops into the fray and messing them up. The war could therefore become even bloodier. The US will provide the necessary weapons. F-16 fighters are excluded for now. But the position could change, as was the case with the Abrams tanks.
negotiation unlikely
At the moment there is no possibility of negotiations. Nothing is moving. All channels of dialogue with Putin are closed. The US strategy is both simple and ambiguous: to bring Ukraine to the battlefield in the best condition. Biden has no intention of formulating a framework for a possible negotiation. It is feared that any American proposal could spark divisions first in Ukraine and then in the Western Bloc. One of the most complicated issues remains Crimea. Nobody from the administration has commented officially, but the prevailing opinion is that it would be very risky for the Ukrainians to try to retake the peninsula. The White House believes this is a “red line” for Putin. His reaction could be devastating. There is no confidence in what Beijing presents as a “peace plan”. For the White House, it’s just an attempt to ease political-diplomatic pressure on Putin.
The Chinese haven’t even consulted the Ukrainians, so by definition it’s a mediation that can’t lead anywhere. Not only. Vice President Kamala Harris said in Monaco last Saturday that “China is deepening ties with Russia.” As far as it turns out, US intelligence is preparing a dossier to be released in the next few days with evidence of “this link.” So far, Foreign Minister Antony Blinken has specified that “there are no signs of Chinese arms deliveries to Russia.”
The testimony of Italy
Another key issue is the compactness of the European bloc. The Americans take note of Germany’s increased commitment. For a long time, Washington considered the government in Berlin to be the least willing to deliver bombs. Now the first place is occupied by others. Maybe, but that’s just an exclusive deduction from France. Opinion on Italy, on the other hand, is positive. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is said to “navigate well” between Silvio Berlusconi’s pro-Russian opposition and Matteo Salvini’s skepticism about Zelenskyy’s support. Last March, 143 United Nations countries condemned Putin’s aggression. In the coming days, the UN plenum will be asked to comment on the peace plan developed by Zelenskyy. According to accounts available to the Oval Office, the consensus this time could be a little lower: between 130 and 139 votes.