1 of 1 Home Stamp border between Brazil and Guyana (Essequibo) — Photo: arte/g1 Home Stamp border between Brazil and Guyana (Essequibo) — Photo: arte/g1
On Saturday (September 12th), the presidents of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, and Guyana, Irfaan Ali, agreed to meet on the territorial dispute.
However, the eyes of the world, especially Latin America, are not only on the two countries; The United States, like Brazil, is another protagonist of this diplomatic crisis.
But despite the military move announced Thursday by the American Embassy in Georgetown, experts polled by BBC News Brasil still do not believe President Joe Biden's priorities include intervening in the region should the crisis escalate into armed conflict.
Not to mention the establishment of a military base in Guyana, as the Brazilian government fears.
“Washington has declared its support for Guyana and I believe they want to give Venezuela the impression that there would be a quick and decisive response to any military move.” [da Venezuela]“Philip Gunson, senior analyst for the Andes at the International Crisis Group in Caracas, told BBC Brazil.
“But I’m not entirely sure how that would actually play out in the US Congress and whether there would be a direct and quick intervention.”
For Jorge Heine, a professor and researcher at Boston University, the American Army's Southern Command overflights sent a short but clear message.
“The United States is showing its arsenal and showing that it will not tolerate these actions by the Venezuelan government. It’s a bit like sending aircraft carriers to the Middle East.”
But Heine said he didn't think the U.S. Army would go much further than it has already shown.
Jeff Colgan, a professor of political science at Brown University, told the BBC that the Biden administration is in no mood to engage in confrontation.
“The United States is already grappling with a war in Ukraine and the crisis in Gaza. They are not looking for another military conflict to deal with,” he said.
“The Biden administration and the American people do not want another fight. And it is quite possible that this problem will be resolved peacefully.”
Military base and alliance with Guyana
Gunson viewed rumors of the establishment of an American military base in Guyana with skepticism.
“The United States has denied any intention in this regard and at the moment it appears to be a claim from Venezuela, which has an interest in turning the dispute into an 'antiimperialist struggle'.”
Heine, on the other hand, is not so stubborn and believes that Guyana just has to want the base for it to exist.
“I believe that if Guyana asks for it, the United States might consider the possibility. The problem is the costs. If it's something outside the normal Pentagon budget, it would have to be approved by the American Congress. But I think it would happen because.” There are currently very strong antiVenezuela opponents, especially antiMaduro opponents in the legislature.
Other aspects of the problem also guide American sympathy for Guyana.
The International Court of Justice in The Hague had ruled that Venezuela could not take any action in connection with Essequibo until its verdict.
Added to this is the disproportionality of their armies: 120,000 on the Venezuelan side versus around 4,000 on the other side of the border.
What weight do economic interests have in the question?
Since 2015, Guyana has discovered 11 billion barrels of oil reserves, including in the Essequibo region, which have helped the country become one of the fastestgrowing economies in the world. And one of the companies exploring Guyana's reserves is the American company Exxon.
During COP28 in Dubai, CEO Darren Woods said he was closely monitoring the situation but that the company was not helping the Guyanese government financially, according to Bloomberg.
Although Colgan sees parallels in the current tensions between the two South American countries to Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990, he does not believe Exxon is a factor in the U.S. government's support for Guyana.
“The American government does not want to be seen as motivated to engage militarily to protect the interests of Exxon or any other oil company,” he told BBC Brazil.
While Essequibo was just scrubland, Hugo Chávez found it easy to leave the border issue there, in a diplomatic maneuver to improve his relations with Caribbean bloc countries, according to Jorge Heine, who also served as Chile's ambassador to China during the government by Michele Bachelet. But the oil reserves piqued the interest of Nicolás Maduro.
Another way for the United States to intervene in the matter without having to use its army is to return the economic sanctions it has eased and impose others, putting further pressure on the Venezuelan economy.
Brazilian Diplomacy Test
The general consensus is that the Venezuelan president's priority when he called the referendum to annex Essequibo was not new oil reserves, but rather his own political survival, even if this led to greater economic problems in the long term.
Venezuela x Guyana: Understanding in the 5point dispute over Essequibo
Analysts say Maduro used the historic border issue and the “annexation” of Essequibo as a political move to revive nationalist sentiments among Venezuelans and pave the way for next year's presidential election.
“I think it is unlikely that there will be a largescale Venezuelan invasion,” Heine told BBC News Brasil. “The terrain there is initially quite difficult and the route to Essequibo leads partly through Brazilian territory. So that makes things very complicated,” he explained.
Therefore, the former diplomat said Maduro would limit himself to ploys to attract public attention, such as the map, or demanding Venezuelan licenses for businesses in Essequibo, rather than military action. “But that doesn’t mean the problem isn’t serious.”
Another consensus is that Brazil can and should mediate negotiations between Guyana and Venezuela, given its role as a regional leader in South America and as a border country between the two.
In a phone call with Maduro over the weekend, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said it was important to avoid “unilateral actions that lead to an escalation of the situation,” according to the Brazilian government.
For Heine, the fight for the Essequibo territory is the opportunity for Brazilian diplomacy to show that it can exert influence and maintain control.
“It is a real challenge for the Lula government. And the fact that the USA has already shown something with military exercises is somewhat problematic. It seems to me that [Essequibo] It should be something that Brazil can solve. The country has traditionally had good relations with Venezuela, it should be able to influence the Venezuelan government not to do anything reckless.”
An alternative could be for the USA and Brazil to work together on this diplomatic path, according to the Boston University professor.
“What would not be good is if Brazil were left out and this was resolved between Venezuela, Guyana and the United States. Brazil should be a natural partner in any solution to this problem.”
Colgan agrees. “Brazil is an absolutely important partner in this situation due to its economic and diplomatic importance in South America. Brazil’s decisions will significantly impact the options available to Venezuela.”