HELSINKI (AP) – During the Cold War and the decades that followed, nothing could convince Finns and Swedes that it would be better to join NATO – so far.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has profoundly changed Europe’s security prospects, including northern European-neutral Finland and Sweden, where support for NATO membership has risen to record highs.
A poll commissioned by Finnish television YLE this week found that for the first time, more than 50% of Finns support joining the Western military alliance. In neighboring Sweden, a similar poll found that supporters of NATO membership were more than opposed.
“The unthinkable can begin to become conceivable” Former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bild tweetedsupporter of NATO membership.
None of the countries will join the alliance overnight. Support for NATO membership is growing and declining, and there is no clear majority to join their parliaments.
But signs of change since Russia launched its invasion last week are unmistakable.
The attack on Ukraine has forced Finland and Sweden to break with their policy of not providing weapons to warring countries by sending assault rifles and anti-tank weapons to Kyiv. For Sweden, this is the first time it has offered military aid since 1939, when it helped Finland against the Soviet Union.
Apparently aware of a change in its northern neighbors, Russia’s foreign ministry last week expressed concern over what it described as efforts by the United States and some of its allies to drag Finland and Sweden into NATO, and warned that Moscow would be forced to respond. measures if they join the alliance.
The governments of Sweden and Finland have said they will not allow Moscow to dictate their security policy.
“I want to be very clear: it is Sweden that decides our security policy on its own and independently,” said Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Anderson.
Finland has a history of conflict with Russia, with which it shares a border of 1,340 kilometers (830 miles). The Finns have fought dozens of wars against their eastern neighbor, for centuries as part of the Kingdom of Sweden and as an independent nation, including two fighting the Soviet Union in 1939-40 and 1941-44.
In the post-war period, however, Finland pursued pragmatic political and economic ties with Moscow, remaining militarily unfettered and a neutral buffer between East and West.
Sweden has been avoiding military alliances for more than 200 years, choosing the path of peace after centuries of war with its neighbors.
Both sides ended traditional neutrality by joining the European Union in 1995 and deepening co-operation with NATO. However, the majority of people in both countries remain firmly against full membership in the alliance – so far.
The YLE survey showed that 53% were in favor of Finland’s accession to NATO, while only 28% were against. The survey had an error of 2.5 percentage points and included 1,382 respondents interviewed from February 23 to 25. Russia’s invasion began on February 24.
“This is a very significant change,” said Matti Pesu, a senior researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. “We have had a situation over the last 25-30 years in which Finns’ views on NATO have been very stable. It seems to have changed completely now. “
Although he noted that it was not possible to draw conclusions from a poll, Pesu said no such change in public opinion had taken place since Russia’s war with Georgia in 2008 and the annexation of the Crimean peninsula in 2014, so this is an exception.
In Sweden, a poll commissioned by public broadcaster SVT in late February found that 41% of Swedes support NATO membership and 35% oppose it, which is the first time supporters have backed it.
The Northern Duo, important partners for NATO in the Baltic Sea region, where Russia has significantly increased its military maneuvers over the past decade, have stressed that it is up to them to join the military alliance.
In his New Year’s speech, Finnish President Sauli Niinisto stressed that “Finland’s room for maneuver and freedom of choice also includes the possibility of military unification and applying for NATO membership, if we so choose.”
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg noted last week that for Helsinki and Stockholm, “it is a matter of self-determination and the sovereign right to choose your own path and then potentially apply to NATO in the future.”
There are no specific criteria for joining NATO, but candidates must meet certain political and other considerations. Many observers believe that Finland and Sweden would qualify for a quick entry into NATO without lengthy negotiations within months.
Although not members, Finland and Sweden work closely with NATO, allowing, among other things, Allied forces to exercise on their territory. Helsinki and Stockholm have also significantly strengthened their bilateral defense co-operation in recent years, and both have secured close military co-operation with the United States, Britain and NATO’s neighboring Norway.
Niinisto’s office said Thursday it would meet with US President Joe Biden at the White House on Friday “to discuss Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the effects of the war on the European security order and bilateral co-operation”.
The Finnish head of state is one of the few Western leaders to maintain a regular dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin since Niinisto took office in 2012. Niinisto has seemingly good relations with both Biden and two leaders in close contact throughout Ukraine’s crisis.
In December, Biden called Niinisto and said he was pleased with Finland’s decision to purchase 64 Steck Lockheed Martin F-35A fighter jets to replace the country’s old F-18 fighters. Biden said the move would pave the way for closer US-Finnish military ties in the future.
Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said this week that her Social Democratic Party would discuss possible NATO membership with other parties, but did not set a time frame. She said everyone agreed that the events of recent weeks had changed the game.
“Together, we see that the security situation has changed dramatically since Russia invaded Ukraine. That’s a fact we have to admit, “Marin said.
___ Associated Press writers Carl Ritter of Stockholm and Lorne Cook in Brussels contributed to this report.
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