Week 8 of the college football season continues on Wednesday with a C-USA matchup between New Mexico State and UTEP. Our college football betting tips assume these offenses may be undervalued and attack the total in this game.
Today’s C-USA matchup between the New Mexico State Aggies and the UTEP Miners looks a lot more interesting than it did a week ago.
New Mexico State is 4-3 this season and has rattled off back-to-back conference victories thanks to the outstanding play of dual-threat quarterback Diego Pavia. So it seemed like this matchup against UTEP would be a great chance to continue that winning streak. But the Miners may have finally found their quarterback after last week’s win over FIU.
Now that the Miners have more power on offense, are they worth a look as home underdogs? Or do we have the whole thing in view?
I’ll break down the college football odds and find the best bet in my college football picks and predictions for New Mexico State vs. UTEP on October 18th.
New Mexico State vs. UTEP – best odds
New Mexico State vs. UTEP tips and predictions
Talk about the work Jerry Kill has done in his first two seasons at New Mexico State. In his first season at the helm, he took the Aggies to their first bowl game since 2017 and it was just the fifth bowl game in program history. And this season, the team is already just two wins away from becoming bowl eligible again.
It would be the first time since 1959-60 that New Mexico State qualified for bowl games in consecutive seasons.
So how did they get here? Well, largely on the back of dual-threat quarterback Diego Pavia. The junior signal-caller is having a breakout season for the Aggies. Pavia has thrown for 1,615 yards with 14 touchdowns compared to five interceptions while completing 62.2% of his passes. He is also the Aggies’ leading rusher with 431 yards and two more scores on the ground.
With Pavia at the helm, the Aggies rank sixth nationally with 5.7 yards per carry. But that improved accuracy in throwing the football has helped New Mexico State score a respectable 30 points per game this season.
But suddenly the Aggies might no longer have the only solid offense in this game.
Just four weeks ago, redshirt sophomore quarterback Cade McConnell was the UTEP Miners’ fourth-string quarterback. Due to injuries, he made his first start in his FBS career against FIU and did not disappoint.
McConnell was efficient against FIU, going 11-for-17 for 262 yards, including a beautiful 80-yard bomb to Kelly Akharaiyi. That helped the Miners take a 21-3 lead in the first quarter and they never looked back on their way to a 27-14 victory.
It was enough for McConnell to earn another start, and he continued to hold his own in this matchup against the Aggies and their suspect pass defense. New Mexico State ranks 106th in passing yards allowed per game and 92nd in opposing yards per pass attempt.
But while UTEP may now have an answer under center, the defense still leaves a lot to be desired. Especially on the ground. The Miners have some solid numbers when it comes to pass defense, but that’s generally because teams didn’t have to pass against them.
Opponents have been able to trample on UTEP this season. The Miners rank 112th in rushing yards per game and 113th in opponent yards per rush. That’s not exactly a recipe for success against this Aggies offense.
I expect both teams to score in this game, so I’ll take the over in what’s now a much more exciting US-USA clash.
My best choice: Over 47.5 (-110 on FanDuel)
Picks made at the time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Same game between New Mexico State and UTEP
Over 47.5
Cade McConnell Over 175.5 yards
Kelly Akharaiyi Over 57.5 yards
Star Thomas any time TD
Our same-game combination starts off, as always, with my best bet being the Over 48.5 for this C-USA matchup, and if that’s the case, there has to be some production in this game.
I already praised McConnell’s performance last week, so we bet he’ll take that into account in this game too. His passing yard prop is set at 175.5 for this matchup. That’s probably so low because a lot of his yardage last week came on that big 80-yard throw. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he hits some more big shots against this Aggies defense.
New Mexico State is vulnerable to deep balls, ranks 92nd in opponent yards per attempt and is 28th in most passes allowed of 20 yards or more this season.
McConnell’s main target was clearly Kelly Akharaiyi, who caught eight balls for 223 yards and two scores. So I add Akharaiyi to reach over 57.5 yards too.
I’d also like to add some props for New Mexico State’s rushing yard, but those don’t appear to have been released as of this writing. Instead, let’s throw to Star Thomas to find the end zone too. He has scored five goals this season, four times on the ground and once through the air. If these arrive we will receive a payday of +518.
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New Mexico State vs. UTEP spread and over/under analysis
UTEP opened this matchup as underdogs by 2.5 points, but New Mexico State saw the early action and pushed the limit to three. This line certainly gives the Miners a little more respect as it shows some life with McConnell under center.
But the Aggies have been a great bet lately, going 3-0-1 ATS overall in their last four games. And since New Mexico State has been more consistent on offense all season, as opposed to just one game for McConnell. I expect Pavia to be the difference in this game and I would call the Aggies short favorites here.
The total was 49, the early money was under and the number was down to 47.5 as of Tuesday afternoon. But as mentioned above, that number doesn’t take into account the quarterback rotation for UTEP, and with both defenses having major vulnerabilities, it looks like the over here.
New Mexico State vs. UTEP betting trend worth knowing
UTEP has reached the team total over in each of its last three games. Find more college football betting trends for New Mexico State vs. UTEP.
Information about the game New Mexico State vs. UTEP
| Location: | Sun Bowl, El Paso, TX |
| Date: | Wednesday, October 18, 2023 |
| Begin: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
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