The elections in USA They are scheduled for Tuesday, November 5th. But before both Democratic Party As the Republican Party They have to hold primaries.
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Under normal conditions one could be sure that the candidates will be there Joe Biden And Donald Trump. Both already faced each other in 2020 with the Democrats winning. Today they are favorites in the internal elections of their respective parties.
Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Waterloo, Iowa, on October 7, 2023. (Photo by KAMIL KRZACZYNSKI / AFP).
/ KAMIL KRZACZYNSKI
But currently Trump card77 years old, He faces six criminal and civil charges ranging from allegations of fraud, defamation, election interference, mishandling of confidential documents and conspiracy to rig the election.
Most of these trials could begin before the November presidential election.
Two of these cases have their origins in the election in which he lost Biden, a defeat that he does not acknowledge, claiming that he was the victim of a fraud. According to the judicial authorities Trump card He made personal efforts to undo the election results in an irregular manner.
The most important legal proceedings against Donald Trump. (AFP).
As a result, two states, Colorado and Maine, passed a ban last December Donald Trump be a candidate in the Republican primary.
The judiciary in both states decided this Trump card cannot run in the elections due to his role Attack on the Capitol January 2021, when hundreds of his supporters attacked Congressional headquarters on the same day as the then-Vice President Mike Pence had to certify the victory Biden.
Special, Colorado And Maine they think about it Trump card took part in events ofrevolt” and that for this reason, due to the law, he is ineligible for the presidency of the country 14 Amendment the Constitution of the United States.
Aside from that…
What does the 14th Amendment say?
“No person shall serve as a Senator or Representative in Congress, or as an elector for the President and Vice President, or hold any office, whether civil or military, in the United States or in any State, unless he has previously held such office under the oath.” as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any state legislature, or as the executive or judicial officer of any state, in support of the Constitution of the United States, in which he has taken part in any insurrection or rebellion against the same or has his opponents Help or comfort given.”
The states where a veto was requested for Trump's candidacy. (AFP).
What will happen now? The Republican primary begins in January and ends in June. The decisions of Maine And Colorado They only apply to the primaries in these states, which are scheduled for March 5th. However, both sentences have been stayed until a final decision is made Supreme Court of the United States.
Therefore, until the Supreme Court rules on the matter, ballots in these states must contain the name of Trump card.
Public opinion and the parties themselves have asked this question Supreme Court address the problem urgently.
As for other states with similar claims about Trump's candidacy, Michigan, Minnesota and California have ruled that the mogul has the right to appear on the ballot.
What can happen in the Supreme Court of the United States? It's unpredictable. But it must be taken into account when Trump card After coming to power, there were changes in its composition and now there is a strong conservative majority in the country's most important judicial body.
This should be pointed out at this point Trump card can continue the election campaign. Furthermore, even if he were convicted in one of his trials and won the election, nothing would stop him from becoming president of the United States.
US President Joe Biden in a picture taken on July 25, 2023. (Photo by Mandel NGAN / AFP).
/ ALMOND NGAN
Talk about BidenThe 81-year-old president's re-election bid is not increasing voting intentions in the polls.
In the latest CNN national poll Trump card has a 49% advantage over 45% of Biden.
This was the result of a New York Times poll in November Trump card will win Biden in five of the six key states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Only in Wisconsin is the Democrat ahead.
It should be noted that the key states are those that ultimately give victory to one of the candidates, since in the electoral system of the United States, the one who receives the most votes nationally does not necessarily win.
In the CNN poll, the majority of voters agreed Biden He does not have the qualities expected of a president, such as his policy positions, his ability to understand people's problems, or his insight and resilience.
In addition, support for Biden Among young people it has fallen significantly in the surveys. A national NBC News poll in November put him close Trump card among voters ages 18 to 34, a drastic setback compared to the 20-point lead Biden gained over Trump in 2020 among that demographic.
Among the various reasons young people gave for not supporting Biden According to NBC News, there is one situation, the war between Israel and Hamas, that has had the worst impact on his relationship with this group of voters.
The NBC News poll, conducted just over a month after the conflict began, found that 70% of voters under 35 disapproved of Biden's handling of the war.
Russian President Vladimir Putin visits the Naryn-Kala fortress in Derbent, Republic of Dagestan, on June 28, 2023. (Photo by Gavriil GRIGOROV / SPUTNIK / AFP).
/ GAVRIIL GRIGOROV
Putin gets by without rivals
Between March 15th and 17th Russia will hold presidential elections Wladimir Putin71 years old, running for re-election for the fifth time since 2000 and with an almost certain victory.
These will be the first elections Russia since the beginning of the war UkraineEnd of February 2022.
As with the last election, there will be no open opposition candidate in March who could overshadow him Putin.
Therefore, international public opinion assumes that these elections will be a kind of referendum on how the Russian military campaign will proceed Ukraine and that the president's goal will be to maintain the level of electoral support he has received in the past.
Putin's longevity in power. (AFP).
Putin was elected president Russia first in 2000 and subsequently won four presidential elections.
He was Prime Minister between 2008 and 2012.
Thanks to a controversial constitutional reform passed in 2020, the president can run again. He can run in 2024, and if he wins, he can run for re-election in 2030, which would remain in power until 2036.when he is 84 years old.
The elections that Putin won. (AFP).
At the moment, Putin He doesn't face any major rivals. Five major parties have been authorized to nominate a candidate without collecting signatures, all of them Kremlin allies and supporters of the war in Ukraine, according to the AFP agency.
Almost all opponents who could endanger Putin's re-election, including the anti-corruption activist Alexei Navalnywere imprisoned or forced into exile.
The journalist and former local councilor was the last to fall Ekaterina Duntsova40-year-old whose presidential candidacy was disqualified by the electoral commission because of “errors in the documents he submitted for registration.”
Duntsova He regretted the decision, which he described as “sad.”
It presented itself as an “alternative” to current power and criticized the Russian military operation in 2010 Ukraine.
Opinion
Trump's veto and Biden's weaknesses
By Francisco Belaunde Matossian
International analyst
The United States Supreme Court will decide whether or not Trump's veto in Colorado and Maine succeeds. It is not ruled out that other states will take similar measures, but the final say will be with the country's highest court.
What these states decided is controversial because even people who oppose Trump don't agree that he should be excluded from the election.
Furthermore, in the Colorado case, the decision was made by a vote of 4 to 3, meaning that there is no entirely clear position regarding the application of the 14th Amendment to the charge of insurrection.
Now, it is difficult to predict an outcome in the Supreme Court, but it should be noted that this court has a conservative majority. In addition, some of them were proposed by Trump himself and were ultimately able to vote against the veto of the candidacy.
As for the content of the campaign, this year the immigration issue will take center stage, particularly as records on illegal immigrants entering the United States are being broken. This is an issue that weakens Biden's candidacy and Trump will obviously exploit it.
In addition, Republicans have already linked the issue to aid to Ukraine. If Biden wants passage of the military and economic aid package for Ukraine, he will have to make concessions to the Republicans on immigration.
But the president will have to carefully consider how far these concessions can go in order not to lose the support of Latino voters.
Another difficult issue is the war between Israel and Hamas, where it could also undermine the vote of part of the Democratic electorate for Biden.
As for the elections in Russia, they are completely decided; there are no real elections in this country. They even just eliminated a pacifist candidate who wanted to compete with Putin.
The only thing that will be of interest is the level of participation and how much Putin will win. It's a similar scenario to countries where there is a dictatorship, where we just wait and see how much the president gets.
So Putin's goal in these elections would be to maintain support from previous elections; It will be like a great survey on his management.