The NFL Playoffs divisional round schedule for the 2023 season is packed with great matchups, and we've got you covered with everything you need to know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the top keys to every game and a bold prediction for each matchup.
Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information offers a large stat and betting nugget for every competition, and our Football Power Index (FPI) delves into the numbers with a match prediction. Analytics writer Seth Walder tackles each match's biggest Finally, Walder and Eric Moody give us tips for the final result of each game. Here's everything you want to know in one place so you can prepare for an exciting NFL playoff football weekend.
Let's look at the entire division slate, including a showdown between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, the Lions' attempts to maintain their playoff runs, and the surging Texans and Packers visiting the No. 1 seed as big underdogs.
Jump to a matchup:
HOU BAL | GB-SF
TB-DET | KC-BUF
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC/ESPN+ | Spread: BAL -9.5 (43.5)
What you should pay attention to: A frustrating postseason series is coming to an end. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is 0-2 in the divisional round, throwing one touchdown pass and three interceptions. But the Texans are 0-4 in the divisional round and are losing by an average of 14.5 points. –Jamison Hensley
Bold prediction: Texas quarterback CJ Stroud will throw for over 300 yards, becoming the first quarterback to achieve that feat against the Ravens since Tom Brady threw for 325 yards on October 27, 2022. Stroud led the league in passing yards per game this season (273). and could have thrown well over .300 in the Wild Card game against the No. 1 Browns defense when he threw .236 in the first half. — DJ Bien Aime
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Statistics you should know: The Ravens utilized play-action at the seventh-highest rate in the regular season (26%), and Jackson thrived with it, ranking in the top seven in the league in QBR, completion percentage and yards per attempt. However, the Texans have been one of the worst defenses at defending play this season – ranking in the bottom five in QBR, completion percentage and yards per attempt.
Matchup X-Factor: The Texans offensive line. The Ravens have used simulated pressure all season to disrupt their opponent's defense with great success while maintaining numbers in coverage. The Ravens recorded 27 sacks on simulated pressure, more than any other team. Houston's offensive line needs to be ready if they want to protect Stroud. — Walder
Schedule key: I'd like to see Houston offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik take Stroud out of the bag on some shoe concepts to draw Baltimore defenders, with tight end Dalton Schultz serving as a sub-target. That could be the key to the Texans finding a rhythm against the Ravens' really good defense. Read more on ESPN+. — Bowen
Injuries: Texans | Ravens
Official note: In a year in which NFL officials threw more flags for intentional groundings (61) than in any other season since at least 2000, it should be noted that referee John Hussey's team was the most aggressive in the regular season, with seven such flags. And as it turned out, Jackson took five such penalties, the most in the NFL. Stroud took one. — Seifert
Betting nugget: The Ravens are 11-6 against the spread (ATS) this season (the unders are 9-8). The Texans are 10-8 ATS, including the playoffs (the Unders are 11-7 ATS).
Moody's selection: Ravens 37, Texans 24
Walder's choice: Ravens 27, Texans 20
FPI forecast: BAL, 81.7% (average 12.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: How Texans' draft night changed the franchise… Ravens add Cook to roster, waive Gordon… Stroud is 'special' as Texans get revenge on Browns with wild card… Jackson comes in the playoffs and proves himself against the Texans
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET | fox | Spread: SF -9.5 (50.5)
What you should pay attention to: This is the 10th playoff meeting between the Niners and Packers, an NFL record, with San Francisco holding a 5-4 lead in those games. Additionally, the Niners have won six straight NFC divisional round playoff games, the longest active streak in the NFL. The winner will either receive the title of winningest team in postseason history or share it with others. The Packers are tied with the Patriots at 37 points and could move into first place with a win alone, while a win for the 49ers would put them level with Green Bay and New England. – Nick Wagoner
Bold prediction: Jayden Reed will be the Packers' leading receiver. How can a guy who didn't catch a single pass the week before do this? Well, the Packers haven't had the same leading receiver in yards in consecutive weeks since Romeo Doubs in Weeks 3 and 4. Doubs led the way again last week against the Cowboys, so perhaps the 49ers will roll their coverage his way. Reed set the franchise record for catches by a rookie this season with 64. – Rob Demovsky
Statistics you should know: The 49ers have won their last five home playoff games, the longest active streak in the NFL, with two of those wins coming against the Packers (2012 Divisional Round and 2019 NFC Championship). The 49ers have dominated these matchups, with four of five wins coming by more than 14 points.
Matchup X-Factor: Packers quarterback Jordan Love. I picked him as the X Factor last week, and guess what? He was the X factor. As of Week 10 and into the playoffs, Love now leads the NFL in QBR (78.4) – and that's not even close. Dak Prescott is second in that span with 73.7. This level of quarterbacking gives the Packers a chance against anyone, including the 49ers. — Walder
2:05
Dan Orlovsky's advice for Jordan Love against the 49ers
Dan Orlovsky joins The Pat McAfee Show to share his thoughts on how Jordan Love can beat the 49ers.
Schedule key: San Francisco receiver Deebo Samuel averaged 8.8 yards after the catch this season, leading all WRs. Coach Kyle Shanahan will plan for him in open field opportunities, which means the Packers will have to be on their tackling A-game. Green Bay will need to limit Samuel's numbers after the catch to pull off an upset. Read more on ESPN+. — Bowen
Injuries: Packers | 49ers
Official note: Referee Alex Kemp's regular season team led the NFL with an average of 15.3 flags per game. The Packers and 49ers both finished in the top third of the NFL for most flags this season, the 49ers with 125 and the Packers with 124. — Seifert
Betting nugget: The Packers have won four straight games as underdogs, their longest underdog winning streak since 2011-12.
Moody's selection: 49ers 31, Packers 21
Walder's choice: 49ers 30, Packers 23
FPI forecast: SF, 78.6% (average 11.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: After Rodgers, LaFleur thrives on love… Shanahan, LaFleur's long NFL history… McCaffrey (Cade) a full participant in 49ers practice… Purdy uses internal motivation to maintain his edge
Sunday, 3 p.m. ET | NBC | Spread: DET -6.5 (48.5)
What you should pay attention to: The Lions just won their first playoff game in 32 years and will appear in an NFC divisional round for the first time since the 1991 playoffs. These teams will meet for the second time this season after Detroit won their regular season game at Tampa Bay 20-6. Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield and Lions quarterback Jared Goff both revived their careers in new surroundings as former No. 1 overall picks and will look to lift their respective teams with their strong play. –Eric Woodyard
Bold prediction: The Bucs will hold the Lions to under 20 points… and win. Tampa Bay will be the underdog again, Detroit will be an extremely hostile environment, and coach Todd Bowles hasn't beaten Goff since 2019, when Goff was with the Rams and Bowles was the Bucs' defensive coordinator. But the defense found its footing last week in one of Bowles' best games, and Mayfield is doing much better physically with his rib and ankle injuries. – Jenna Laine
Statistics you should know: The Buccaneers' defense has survived 41% of dropbacks by opposing quarterbacks this season, the third-highest rate in the NFL. They could look to increase that even more against Goff, who has seven blitz turnovers this season, second-most turnovers in the NFL.
NFL playoffs 2023
• Divisional Round Guide »
• Mapping Upset Schedules (ESPN+) »
• Wildcard Overreactions (ESPN+) »
• Barnwell: Big Questions (ESPN+) »
• Full playoff round and schedule »
Matchup X-Factor: Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson. He is on a three-game multi-sack streak and has a 33% pass-rush win rate in the wild-card round (more than double his regular-season rate). The Lions' pass defense is their weakness, but if Hutchinson gets going, the Lions could quickly pull away. — Walder
Schedule key: Will we see Lions receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and Buccaneers corner Carlton Davis III in one-on-one man coverage duels? St. Brown had 124 yards in Week 6 against Tampa Bay, so the Bucs need a plan here – possibly with Davis as cover and safety running late on defense. Read more on ESPN+. — Bowen
Injuries: privateer | Lions
Official note: Referee Bill Vinovich's regular-season team is typically one of the stingiest in the NFL. However, in 2023, they averaged 13.4 flags per game, the seventh fewest in the NFL. When the Lions and Bucs met in the regular season, the teams combined for ten flags – five apiece. — Seifert
Betting nugget: Both teams are 12-6 ATS this season, which is the second-best record behind the Raiders (12-5 ATS). The unders are 12-6 in Buccaneers games, while the overs are 11-7 in Lions games.
Moody's selection: Lions 28, Buccaneers 21
Walder's choice: Lions 34, Buccaneers 17
FPI forecast: DET, 62.5% (average 4.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Mayfield responds to Lions DB's barb…Goff leads Lions to revenge win over Rams…Mayfield leads underdog Bucs to upset playoff win…Oral history of the Lions' last playoff win
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: BUF -2.5 (45.5)
What you should pay attention to: For the first time in this rivalry between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, the Chiefs are coming to Orchard Park for the postseason. The quarterbacks met six times, with the Bills winning three of the four regular season meetings and the Chiefs winning both postseason games (2020 and 2021). The difference for the Bills in regular and postseason games is defensive success. In the regular season, the Bills held the Chiefs to 20.8 points per game and had nine takeaways, but in the playoffs, Kansas City averaged 40 points per game and only committed one turnover. A big test lies ahead for the Bills defense, which is dealing with a variety of injuries. — Alaina Getzenberg
Bold prediction: Mahomes and Allen will combine for at least six TD passes. These two always give great performances when they play, especially in the postseason. Mahomes and Allen combined for five passes in the AFC Championship Game after the 2020 season and seven passes in the divisional round next season. Conditions won't be ideal, but that hasn't stopped them so far. – Adam Teicher
Statistics you should know: One area that could separate the Bills from the Chiefs could be winning the turnover battle. The Bills forced 30 turnovers this season, second-most in the NFL (the Ravens and Giants each forced 31). The Chiefs forced 17 turnovers this season, the 27th most in the NFL.
2:39
Why Stephen A. believes Josh Allen will surpass Patrick Mahomes
Stephen A. Smith makes the case for Josh Allen and the Bills to top Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the AFC divisional round.
Matchup X-Factor: Bills cornerback health. Taron Johnson (concussion), Rasul Douglas (knee) and Christian Benford (knee) are all injured. While Buffalo looks like the better team on paper, a depleted secondary seems like a dangerous combination against Mahomes. — Walder
Schedule key: In the Week 14 matchup between these teams, Bills running back James Cook had 83 receiving yards. Look for the Bills to get Cook back into the passing game with backfield releases and screens. And look for Chiefs linebacker Nick Bolton to play a key role in limiting these plays. Read more on ESPN+. — Bowen
Injuries: Chiefs | bills
Official note: Shawn Hochuli is one of the most active referees in the NFL. During the regular season, he threw an NFL-high 14 flags for charging the passer, five more than the nearest referee. Since becoming a referee in 2018, he led the league with 61 such flags. This could prove interesting, as Allen has become very adept at roughly compensating passer fouls. In 2023, he scored six draws, the most in the league. Mahomes only drew one. — Seifert
Betting nugget: Mahomes is 10-5 ATS in his playoff career, including an ATS of 7-2 when he is not at least a seven-point favorite. Allen has gone 3-6 ATS in his playoff career.
Moody's selection: Bills 31, Chiefs 27
Walder's choice: Chiefs 32, Bills 31
FPI forecast: BUF, 56.6% (average 2.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: How Mahomes handled the worst season of his career… Allen's TD dash thrills Bills in wild-card win over Steelers… Mahomes prepares for Allen again, compares to Brady-Manning