NFL free agency begins Monday through a legal negotiation window, but we’ve already seen a handful of extensions this week – along with two massive quarterback deals. First, the Seahawks agreed to send Russell Wilson to the Broncos. The Commanders then brought in Carson Wentz to negotiate a deal with the Colts. Harold Landry III and Mike Williams also made big money outside of the franchise by renewing their contracts.
National NFL reporters Jeremy Fowler, Dan Graziano and Kevin Seifert are evaluating every major free agent signing and trade over the next few weeks, and they’re starting with this pair of trades and renewals. They will evaluate each move from the team’s point of view, using the terms of the contract, the amounts of money, the value and age of the player, and history to evaluate the deal. Since the specific structure of the contracts is not always known when a deal is announced, they may delay evaluating the move until they know more about the guaranteed money.
We’ll also have NFL Draft Analysts Matt Miller and Jordan Reid looking at every move from a draft standpoint. What does each signing and trade mean for this team’s first-round prospects in April, and how do the deals affect where the best prospects can be picked? Taking into account the needs of the team, the positional value on the draft boards, and what they’ve been hearing from across the NFL, they break down what it all means for NFL teams’ next off-season event: the draft.
We are just getting started as teams will start signing players next week. And all deals become official on Wednesday with the start of the new league year. See how our experts rate and rate each action, with the most recent ratings at the top. This part will continue to be updated.
Indianapolis Colts get: 2022 2nd round pick, 2022 3rd round pick, and 2023 3rd round pick (may become a 2nd round pick if Wentz plays 70% of games in 2022)
Washington commanders receive: QB Carson Wentz, 2022 second round pick
Colts class: BUT-
Commander class😀
An honest question for the Commanders: Is Wentz an undeniable upgrade from Taylor Heinicke, the backup quarterback who filled in for Ryan Fitzpatrick for much of last season? We can probably agree that Wentz has the stronger hand and the best stats of his career. But how many additional victories will he bring? And will those extra wins be worth the significant difference in their salaries in 2022?
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Here we can assume that the Commanders will not do much better with Wentz than with Heinicke or a quarterback of a similar profile. And even if it gives them an extra win or two, it won’t be worth the extra cash or cap space. Now, Wentz has been shown the door twice in two seasons by franchises who had every reason to try to make him work: the Eagles because he was the No. 2 pick in the 2016 draft and the Colts after they gave up on what had become was selected in the first round to acquire it last year. The Colts surrendered Wentz with no path to an obvious replacement. Something is not right here, and this is clearly not only due to Wentz’s inconsistent play on the field.
Eventually, Washington will pay Wentz $28 million and lose three draft picks in pursuit of an extra win or two in 2022. And it is likely that next year at this time he will face a similar situation. The Colts, meanwhile, did the right thing by dropping the bait. They made a deal last year that didn’t work, and they paid dearly for it. But there was no point in prolonging or aggravating the error. They didn’t get back what they gave away, but to be honest, getting a second round pick and at least two players in the third round is a pretty strong comeback given the circumstances. — Seifert
What this means for the 2022 draft: “Commanders” drop out of the list of teams that need a quarterback, and the “Colts” are immediately added to it. Indianapolis still lacks first round capital to acquire one of the best passers this year and should instead be considered a veteran favorite. As for the top class of 2022 quarterbacks, Washington filling its quarterback need with Wentz could mean a longer wait on draft day for QB1 or QB2 than previously expected. In most dummy drafts, the Commanders have done their best to pick the No. 11 starter overall, but now Washington can focus on adding a receiver against Terry McLaurin or replacing Brandon Scherff in the offensive line. — Miller
Seattle Seahawks get: QB Drew Lock, TE Noah Fant, DL Shelby Harris, 2022 1st round pick, 2023 1st round pick, 2022 2nd round pick, 2023 2nd round pick, and 2022 5th round pick
Denver Broncos receives: QB Russell Wilson and 2022 fourth round pick
Seahawks class: D+
Broncos grade: BUT
NFL clubs could spend a generation or more trying to find a quarterback as good as Wilson at 33. your future projects. Wilson wasn’t looking to run as much in 2021 as he had in previous seasons, scoring 43 sprint attempts in 14 games, a career high, and it’s fair to wonder if he can peak efficiency without mixing his skills normally. open field. But even a smaller version of his influence is a massive improvement over the quarterbacks the Broncos hired after Peyton Manning retired in 2015, and it will still put the Broncos in the top 10 quarterbacks at the start of the 2022 season.
For the Seahawks, the big question is “why?” What would motivate you to trade a quarterback, presumably still in his prime, even if he’s in the latter half of his career, given the historical difficulty of finding a worthy replacement? Look at the history of the Seahawks, which goes back to 1976, and try to find a quarterback who even came close to Wilson’s prowess. Why not do everything possible to extend his stay in Seattle? If you couldn’t do it, then why?
The return of the Seahawks was not terrible and prevented their ratings from dropping further. The real failure here is not to maximize the career of a quarterback who only happens once in a franchise (at the moment). — Seifert
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Marcus Spears can’t contain his joy as he discusses Russell Wilson and the opportunities that lie ahead of him in Denver.
What this means for the 2022 draft: The Seahawks are now a top contender for a quarterback in the 2022 or 2023 NFL Draft and they will have enough draft capital to acquire him. What does this mean for the 2022 quarterback class? A quarterback can go off the board within the top 10 picks. However, it’s more likely that Seattle is now poised to land a premium pass rusher with the 9th overall pick, as well as two first-round selections before 2023, a year in which the quarterback class is expected to be much more talented. — Miller
Deal: Five years, $87.5 million
Grade: B+
The Landry’s market value is a tougher nut to crack than you might think. As a rule, young extremists are in high demand. And Landry has put in a respectable sack count in his career, with 31 sacks in four seasons, topped off by a 12-sack hit in his contract year. He’s also a stalwart, having played in all but one Titans game in the past four years.
But his other indicators are a little less clear. For example, last season Landry ranked 34th among the NFL’s top forwards in scoring passes (13.8%). Some pass rushers break the rules all the time, and some have a number of sacks that make them look like they break the rules all the time. And it wouldn’t be outlandish to place Landry in the latter category.
However, the Titans knew that 1) someone would give him a high salary and 2) it would be harder to find a worthy replacement for Landry, even if they don’t consider him an elite pass rusher. They ended up signing him without using the franchise tag and before he had a chance to seek offers from other teams. — Seifert
What this means for the 2022 draft: Now that the Titans have re-signed their all-star pass rusher, the team could have many different directions with the 26th overall pick. They could have picked a pass rusher even after they got Landry back, but the wide receiver is one area to look at. AJ Brown and Julio Jones are two big targets, but longevity was an issue for both during their first season together. — reed
Deal: Three years, $60 million
Grade: FROM-
Here is an example of a franchise tag working in favor of a player. It would have cost the Chargers more than $18 million for Williams’ franchise, who finished his career year with 76 catches for 1,146 yards and nine touchdowns. An honest analysis of Williams’ career doesn’t paint a picture of a $20 million-a-year wide receiver, but the Chargers are trying to maximize quarterback Justin Herbert in his rookie, and Herbert clearly has a good relationship with Williams.
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If Williams had left, the Chargers would have had to study players like Allen Robinson II and Amari Cooper, good players and one could argue they would be upgrades. But familiarity matters, and the Chargers and Herbert love and trust Williams. Signing him to a long-term contract allows them to keep his maximum number lower this year than it would be on the franchise tag.
Who knows? Once the real numbers come in, it’s possible this deal will look better for the team than it did in the initial report. But as it stands, it looks like a fantastic deal for a player and overpaying the team for a guy who only hit 50 catches in a season once every five years. — Gratiano
What this means for the 2022 draft: Signing Williams to a lucrative contract extension shouldn’t change the Chargers’ draft plans much. With one of the worst defensive records in the league in 2021, the home defense remains top of the needs column. The right tackle and cornerback will also draw attention. The Chargers should be looking for improvements over Brian Bulaga and Storm Norton, and they could pick a tackle from this year’s deep class. — reed