With just three weeks left in the NFL regular season, the playoff races are heating up, as are the races for home field advantage during the playoffs and the all-important first-round goodbye for every conference. The AFC and NFC have two teams with a better than 20 percent chance of usurping the current wildcard teams, and the AFC South is close to a coin toss, but that’s not all that’s at stake in Week 16.
The Philadelphia Eagles are poised to become the NFC No. The Eagles still have a good chance of winning the bye, but their odds drop about 6 percent if they lose to the Cowboys on Saturday. But that’s not the only knock-on effect of Hurts’ uncertainty. The Eagles play the Giants in Week 18, and if they don’t get the bye before the last week of the regular season, Philadelphia could end up needing to win this week and possibly shake things up in the NFC wildcard race.
As for the No. 1 in the AFC, the Bills are the current favorites at 59.1 percent, followed by the Chiefs at 37.3 percent. The Bengals are the third most likely team to score a clinch at 3.6 percent. It’s likely to be a two-team race and with the Bills and Chiefs both being double-digit favorites this weekend, it’s unlikely we’ll see too much drama. However, if we do and one of the Bears or Seahawks creates the commotion, the odds of earning the bye would fluctuate significantly.
Six teams are in the Week 16 playoffs: the Bills and Chiefs in the AFC and the Eagles, Vikings, 49ers and Cowboys in the NFC. Three other AFC teams and one other NFC team can secure a spot this week, and milestones are at stake for the Bills and Eagles, too.
• Cincinnati secures a playoff spot with a win in New England on Saturday or a Jets loss or draw with Jacksonville on Thursday.
• The Chargers secure a playoff spot with a win in Indianapolis on Monday and a combination of losses or ties by the Raiders, Patriots, Jets and/or Dolphins.
• The Ravens compete in one of 10 scenarios that include them winning or drawing and up to seven other teams winning, losing, or drawing. There’s even a scenario where Baltimore comes into play, regardless of its outcome, if the Patriots and Jets lose, the Browns, Raiders, and Titans lose, or draw and the Chargers win.
• The Giants earn a playoff berth, winning a win Saturday in Minnesota and losing two of the three in Detroit, Seattle and Washington.
• The Bills win the AFC East with a win in Chicago on Saturday or a Dolphins loss to the Packers on Sunday.
• The Eagles take the NFC East title with a win-or-draw and a win-or-draw and a loss-or-draw from the Vikings Saturday in Dallas for NFC home field advantage and a first-round bye.
However, as mentioned above, the Eagles’ injury situation could have repercussions throughout the NFC playoff race. The AFC is giving us a big showdown on Thursday night between the Jaguars and Jets, two outside teams looking in right now, but don’t overlook the Bengals at Patriots as that game has significant playoff and AFC North implications. After scanning the board, there are 10 games in week 16 that will move the needle for one or both teams involved. Let’s take a look at the potential swings in playoff odds for each team if they won this week:
Jaguars at Jets, 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday
What if the Jaguars win?
| TEAM | PLAYOFF ODDS | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
40.0 percent | +7.8 percent | |
5.0 percent | -19.0 percent |
What if the Jets win?
| TEAM | PLAYOFF ODDS | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
35.0 percent | +11.0 percent | |
28.3 percent | -3.9 percent |
Falcons at Ravens, 1 p.m. ET Saturday
What if the Falcons win?
| TEAM | PLAYOFF ODDS | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
9.4 percent | +6.4 percent | |
84.5 percent | -9.4 percent |
What if the Ravens win?
| TEAM | PLAYOFF ODDS | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
98.6 percent | +4.7 percent | |
0.4 percent | -2.6 percent |
Lions at Panthers, 1 p.m. ET Saturday
What if the lions win?
| TEAM | PLAYOFF ODDS | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
72.2 percent | +14.6 percent | |
6.4 percent | -4.4 percent |
What if the Panthers win?
| TEAM | PLAYOFF ODDS | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
17.2 percent | +6.4 percent | |
29.1 percent | -28.5 percent |
Seahawks at Chiefs, 1 p.m. ET Saturday
What if the Seahawks win?
| TEAM | PLAYOFF ODDS | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
46.6 percent | +27.6 percent |
| TEAM | 1 SEED QUOTE | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
8.20% | -29.1 percent |
What if the Chiefs win?
| TEAM | 1 SEED QUOTE | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
44.4 percent | +7.1 percent |
| TEAM | PLAYOFF ODDS | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
11.1 percent | -7.9 percent |
Giants at Vikings, 1 p.m. ET Saturday
What if the Giants win?
| TEAM | PLAYOFF ODDS | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
97.5 percent | +19.9 percent |
| TEAM | 1 SEED QUOTE | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
0.0 percent | -0.6 percent |
What if the Vikings win?
| TEAM | 1 SEED QUOTE | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
2.5 percent | +1.9 percent |
| TEAM | PLAYOFF ODDS | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
71.2 percent | -6.4 percent |
Bengals at Patriots, 1 p.m. ET Saturday
What if the Bengals win?
| TEAM | PLAYOFF ODDS | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
100.0 percent | +0.4 percent | |
6.9 percent | -14.6 percent |
What if the Patriots win?
| TEAM | PLAYOFF ODDS | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
35.5 percent | 14.0 percent | |
99.0 percent | -0.6 percent |
Commanders at 49ers, Saturday 4:05 p.m. ET
What if the Commanders win?
| TEAM | PLAYOFF ODDS | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
69.2 percent | +30.5 percent |
| TEAM | 1 SEED QUOTE | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
0.0 percent | -0.7 percent |
What if the 49ers win?
| TEAM | 1 SEED QUOTE | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
2.5 percent | +1.8 percent |
| TEAM | PLAYOFF ODDS | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
24.7 percent | -14.0 percent |
Eagles at Cowboys, 4:25 p.m. ET Saturday
What if the Eagles win?
| TEAM | 1 SEED QUOTE | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
100.0 percent | +1.8 percent | |
0.0 percent | -0.5 percent |
What if the cowboys win?
| TEAM | 1 SEED QUOTE | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
2.3 percent | +1.8 percent | |
92.3 percent | -5.9 percent |
Packer at Dolphins, Sunday 1 p.m. ET
What if the Packers win?
| TEAM | PLAYOFF ODDS | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
16.3 percent | +9.3 percent | |
66.4 percent | -8.5 percent |
What if the dolphins win?
| TEAM | PLAYOFF ODDS | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
82.3 percent | +7.4 percent | |
1.5 percent | -5.5 percent |
Chargers at Colts, Monday 8:15 p.m. ET
What if the Chargers win?
| TEAM | PLAYOFF ODDS | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
96.7 percent | +14.8 percent | |
0.0 percent | -0.2 percent |
What if the Colts win?
| TEAM | PLAYOFF ODDS | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
0.6 percent | +0.4 percent | |
65.9 percent | -16.0 percent |
(Photo: Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)