The picture of the 2023 NFL playoffs is officially set. After the Lions upset the Packers in dramatic fashion Sunday night, knocked Green Bay out of the postseason and lifted the Seahawks to the last wild card spot, the Super Wild Card weekend schedule is complete. Now the actual games can begin. The postseason is a new challenge for 14 contenders and only time will tell who are ready to compete at the Lombardi. In the meantime, we would classify them as follows:
Tyreek Hill USATSI
Mike McDaniel deserves credit for leading Miami to this point and unlocking quarterback Tua Tagovailoa earlier this year. Tyreek Hill can always shake up a game with his speed. But Tagovailoa is a complete unknown from a medical perspective, recovering from his recent concussion, and even if his health weren’t at risk, neither he nor #2 Teddy Bridgewater possess the consistent depth accuracy to play a shootout, which may well be required thanks to their vulnerable pass defense.
13. Seahawks (9-8)
DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett USATSI
Seattle, gifted a postseason ticket by the Lions’ exploits, is benefiting from its experience on the sidelines, where Pete Carroll has now led 10 different playoff runs in 13 years. Rookie Kenneth Walker III offers some pop as a vintage bell cow. And the once porous defenses have tightened of late. Unfortunately things have gone the wrong way where a resurgent Geno Smith has elite targets in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett but now has 10 turnovers in his last eight games.
Trevor Lawrence USATSI
Doug Pederson probably deserves Coach of the Year recognition for the way he helped restore Trevor Lawrence as a rising star among the middle and his boys put on some gruff football during their five-game winning streak at the end of the year; Pederson’s teams dating Philadelphia have always engaged in a fight. But they’re a young group whose defensive holes have probably been masked a little by taking on the Jets, Texans and Titans on the track.
Saquon Barkley, Daniel Jones Getty
Winning significant games in 2023 usually means consistently winning through the air, which isn’t necessarily something they’ve been able to achieve with a makeshift receiving corps for Daniel Jones, who has otherwise enjoyed quiet but notable growth under Brian Daboll. So your cap feels pretty low compared to more explosive teams. But as a spoiler early in the round, they’re built to make noise thanks to the intelligent physicality that Dabolls rubbed off on Saquon Barkley and co.
Justin HerbertUSATSI
Welcome to the three-team region full of fun, talented teams that just can’t be trusted. Los Angeles has all the building blocks of a title contender, from the laser-armed Justin Herbert to the ultra-shady Austin Ekeler to the QB-smashing Joey Bosa. And yet coach Brandon Staley, whose “D” has folded against defeated opponents, all too often seems to get in the way of important decisions. No matter how many eye-popping names they have on both sides of the ball, their games find a way to get to the point.
Dak Prescott USATSI
Speaking of flashy names, Dallas is king when it comes to a glittery product on paper that doesn’t show up when it matters most. When they’re firing on all cylinders, when CeeDee Lamb pulls in catches and Micah Parsons terrorizes QBs from the edge, they’re a powerhouse. But their groundplay has been flat lately, and what’s even more concerning: Despite the high-level distribution Dak Prescott is capable of under center, the QB has been particularly risky to force throws since returning from injury, and led the NFL to just 12 games with 15 picks. What’s more, he’s still looking for a crucial big-game win after seven years.
Justin Jefferson USATSI
Kevin O’Connell steered that program in the right direction, somehow allowing Kirk Cousins to put in some of the boldest and most resilient work of his career in an otherwise inefficient year by QB standards and somehow finish 13 of 17 games by a screener to win a pass defense. Culture is on the rise, and Justin Jefferson’s smooth gameplay makes it all the more promising. Trouble is, the few times they have a hard time, it gets ugly; Cousins, Dalvin Cook and the entire operation seem to be going haywire when Jefferson isn’t feasting in the background. And then there’s that infamous point difference; Despite all of those victories, we’re yet to see Minnesota cleanly and handily handle the deal.
Tom BradyGetty
Everything says Tampa Bay should be one and done in the playoffs. Everything except, well, the man under the middle. Todd Bowles’ first attempt to succeed Bruce Arians was sloppy, sluggish and uninspiring, with conservative tendencies mixed poorly with injury-plagued lineups. But Tom Brady is still airing it at 45 and still saving some of his best stuff for crunch time. Bowles’ “D” is generally quick and physical enough to stay in every game, so Brady’s setup isn’t letting him down, giving him time to slam Mike Evans on the sidelines, they could easily play spoilers.
Lamar JacksonUSATSI
Where is Lamar Jackson right now? Physically? mental? The Star QB hasn’t occupied a practice field, let alone started a game, in a month. And his availability, as well as his athletic limitations (or lack thereof) due to a knee injury, could decide whether they are even able to reach the end zone on the big stage. Baltimore’s offense was already pretty one-dimensional, with Jackson and JK Dobbins tasked with managing the show on location. Luckily, John Harbaugh is battle-hardened on the sidelines, and their “D,” overridden by Roquan Smith, averages more than a snack a game.
Jalen injures USATSI
Not unlike their title-winning predecessors from five years ago, they don’t exactly strut their stuff into the tournament with their heads held high, although at one point they look like the bare-bones package. The X Factor may well be defending Jonathan Gannon, who leads the NFL in sacks but faced death from a thousand paper cuts. But the reunion should help QB Jalen Hurts return to his form as a steely double threat catalyst, and his wide-ranging duo of AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith are reliably lethal. Their moats have also traditionally been sturdy, helping them win vastly different types of games.
Joe BurrowUSATSI
Although they have an MVP candidate in Joe Burrow at center, they have not been a juggernaut on the track and have only surpassed 30 points once in their last six games. What they have been, however, is reliable in the clutch, and Burrow’s pretty precision shots are the main reason. Ja’Marr Chase’s widespread electricity certainly helps, as does an opportunistic “D”. They’re a bit worried about Burrow’s protection and her health in general, but as long as Burrow’s out there it’s hard to count.
Kyle Shanahan Getty
There was a time when injuries could mar Kyle Shanahan’s prized results system, as 2018 and 2020 proved. That time seems to be over now as Shanahan’s run-first attack thrives with his third starting QB of the year, with rookie Brock Purdy somehow bringing even more composure and passing than Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance before him. The guns are elite, with Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel at service and George Kittle at center, and DeMeco Ryans’ defense is vicious, with Nick Bosa off the edge and ball magnets on the next few levels. They’re just so round. The only big question mark is whether Purdy, 23, will look any different under the brightest lights.
Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs USATSI
If fate rests with any contender, it may be theirs. Electrified by the hospitalization and recovery of Damar Hamlin, Buffalo was already best equipped to take on the Chiefs, their playoff nemesis, thanks largely to the fireworks tandem of Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. Allen is such a gunslinger, of course, that he tends to give up the ball, but so much else works in the Bills’ favor to make up for occasional mistakes: their ground play with rookie James Cook is underrated, the defense is littered with experienced playmakers even without a Von Miller, and coach Sean McDermott is as balanced a leader as anyone.
1st Bosses (14-3)
Patrick Mahomes Getty
They have advanced to the AFC Championship in each of the four seasons. Andy Reid had Patrick Mahomes as the starting QB, and the two times they failed to make the Super Bowl, they went into overtime to win the conference title. Simply put, there is no safer choice when it comes down to it. The story isn’t the only thing on her side, either. Despite a vulnerable defense, Reid unblocks the shady Kadarius Toney at the right time, Travis Kelce remains an impenetrable safety valve, and Mahomes – always the clutch trick play artist – still makes MVP games look casual. Like the Patriots of yore when the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick pairing alone demanded trust, they are the NFL’s most stable standard today.