The 2023 NFL regular season is set, which means it's time for the real games to begin. All 14 playoff spots have been secured and the race for Super Bowl LVIII and the Lombardi Trophy is just around the corner.
Excitements and surprises are part of the experience, so it would be foolish to rely on just about anything. But here's how we would rank all the contenders entering the tournament from least to most likely to lift the trophy on Super Bowl Sunday:
Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield USATSI
Baker Mayfield deserves credit for exceeding expectations as their quarterback in practice, and Todd Bowles' defense has quietly cracked down over the last month, particularly against the run. But their old-school brand of ball control is more scattered outside the NFC South, and Bowles' group tends to be extremely conservative in key spots.
Steelers HC Mike Tomlin Getty Images
Mike Tomlin pulled a rabbit out of the hat once again, navigating the turmoil in the lineup and the injuries to quarterbacks to keep Pittsburgh afloat. But as sharp as Mason Rudolph was off the bench, this is the only playoff team with a negative point differential, and now the defense's best difference maker, TJ Watt, is hurt. They will still be shabby as always.
Eagles QB Jalen injured USATSI
Has there ever been a team that started 10-1 the year after a Super Bowl bid only to look so depressed? There are special players on this roster, but all the momentum from their 2022 run has disappeared in an increasingly apathetic 1-5 stretch to end the year. The defense can't stop anyone, but perhaps there's hope for Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown and Co. to rediscover their magic on the road.
Packers RB AJ Dillon, QB Jordan love Getty Images
They weren't that dissimilar to the Rams, their fellow wild-card entrant, and shouldn't remain relevant as they rebuild with a reduced defense. And certainly Joe Barry's unit remains a liability. But QB Jordan Love was a revelation alongside a quiet group of speedy young wideouts. Paired with Aaron Jones and Matt LaFleur's ground game, they can play spoilsport.
Browns DE Myles Garrett Getty Images
Joe Flacco was a story of the season as he came off the street to hit left and right and bring a complete lack of authority to Kevin Stefanski's passing attack. Will it hold up against playoff defense? Perhaps. Maybe not. But Jim Schwartz's own stingy unit, led by Myles Garrett and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, could be opportunistic enough to offset the QB's willingness to take risks.
Texans QB CJ Stroud USATSI
Not even the biggest CJ Stroud fans could have imagined that the rookie quarterback would do so much for Houston so quickly. His pocket presence far exceeds his age and DeMeco Ryans has consistently gotten more out of his shifting defense than expected. Are they still a year away from a deep run? Perhaps. But with such youthful swagger, one should never say never.
8. Rams (10-7)
Rams QB Matthew Stafford USATSI
Matthew Stafford seemed destined to break through behind a dubious line at the start of 2023, but Sean McVay's offense has been humming along since a bye in mid-November, helping LA go 7-1 during that stretch (the only loss came in overtime against the Ravens). Except for Aaron Donald, they still have a makeshift “D.” But with Puka Nacua and their weapons they can play gunfights.
Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill USATSI
There may not be a larger boom-or-bust troupe in this dance. When operating at full health and speed, Mike McDaniel's All-Star roster can light up the scoreboard, with the connection between Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill being one of the NFL's best. The problem is that they all get mixed up at the wrong time, leaving Tua to face important questions without a fully intact supporting cast.
Lions QB Jared Goff Getty Images
At home they are a different animal than on the road, with Jared Goff prone to turnovers against aggressive fronts, but when they are firing on all cylinders few clubs are as confident and controlled. Dan Campbell's aggressiveness on the sideline is undiminished, and their robust front helps facilitate both consistent running and playful attacking.
Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb USATSI
America's Team is back at the top of the NFC East, and we've seen many times this year that when Dak Prescott and Co. are scoring, there may not be a nicer offense in the game. The way Prescott has reclaimed the field as his domain remains MVP-worthy, with CeeDee Lamb nearly unstoppable on the outside and playmakers like Micah Parsons and DaRon Bland running their own ball game on the other side. But unfortunately, Prescott and Mike McCarthy's staff have yet to overcome the hurdle on the big stage.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes USATSI
Andy Reid's offense typically resembles a video game in its creativity and execution, which wasn't the case in 2023. But for all the frustration Patrick Mahomes has shown, the QB is practically living playoff football, not entirely unlike Tom Brady in his prime. And their defense, led by Chris Jones, was poor up front – it was in the top five in sacks in the entire NFL.
3. Bills (11-6)
Bills QB Josh Allen Getty Images
They struggled to win major contests earlier this year, but you'd be hard-pressed to find a more dangerous offensive trio than Josh Allen, James Cook and Stefon Diggs. They have hurdles to overcome in January, but with an improved Sean McDermott-led defense featuring ball-hawk Rasul Douglas, they could be the contender no one else wants to play against.
49ers HC Kyle Shanahan Getty Images
It's no coincidence that Kyle Shanahan has reached the NFC title game three times since 2019. A fourth trip wouldn't surprise anyone, as Brock Purdy is the most confident and agile point guard Shanahan has ever fielded. Not only do they have elite multi-purpose weapons, but they also have impressive defenses. Your key will be to get early leads.
1. Ravens (13-4)
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson Getty Images
They have all the ingredients to be a true championship contender: a dynamic quarterback in Lamar Jackson who can hit with effortless accuracy and avoid leg problems, an experienced coach in John Harbaugh who has been on the field before big stage, and a fast, physical defense that can impact the ball at every level. They should be favored in every matchup.