• Begin Russell Wilson: The Denver Broncos are one of the hottest teams in the league and Wilson is uniquely suited to dominate the Houston Texans defense.
• Sit James Conner: It’s a revenge game for the former Pittsburgh Steelers running back, but he doesn’t see the same opportunities this year as he did last year – especially with the Cardinals playing from behind.
• Six teams have a bye week: There will be more surprising names on the starting line-up than usual. The players who sit are more likely to be players who you might consider as starters based on the bye weeks, but who should probably still sit.
Estimated reading time: 16 minutes
Deciding who should start or sit in fantasy football can be as easy as looking at the PFF rankings and deciding on the higher-ranked player. This “Start ’em, Sit ’em” column goes a step deeper and explores why someone you normally start might not have a good week, or why someone you overlooked might have a good week. In many cases it’s the usual starters who should play the main role, but we also want to explore the borderline players.
Jump to a position group:
QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF/ST | K
BEGIN
Sam Howell, Washington commanders
- Howell ranks fourth in fantasy points on the season, with most of his poor games coming early in the season. Since Week 5, he is averaging 21.2 fantasy points per game.
- Only once since Week 5 has he ranked outside the top 12 fantasy quarterbacks.
- That was in Week 7 against the New York Giants, when he was sacked six times and completed just 52% of his passes.
- Since that game, he’s done a much better job of avoiding sacks. He was sacked five or more times in six of his first seven games. He has been fired four or fewer times in each of the last five years.
- Howell has generally been successful as a fantasy quarterback because he consistently throws 40 or more passes every game.
- The Commanders play the Miami Dolphins in Week 13 and are heavy underdogs. It’s very likely that Howell will get back to 40 passes as the Commanders should play out from the back.
- The volume alone will be enough to make him a fantasy starter. The Dolphins have a top-six coverage grade and a top-six pass rush grade, but they have allowed an above-average number of fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, in part due to volume.
Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
- Wilson has been a top-12 fantasy quarterback in three of his last four games and five of his last eight games.
- He’s not playing as well as he did in his peak seasons with the Seattle Seahawks, but he’s performing significantly better than he did in his previous two seasons.
- Wilson performed much better against zone defense than man defense this season, with a PFF pass grade of 76.0 against zone and a PFF grade of 61.3 against man defense.
- The Broncos play the Houston Texans in Week 13, who field the sixth-best zone defense in the NFL.
- Although the Broncos are one of the hottest teams in the NFL, the Houston Texans are the favorite by a few points. Houston has won or lost by a margin of three points or fewer in each of its last nine games.
- The Texans are among the top 10 teams giving fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.
- Wilson should see normal volume and be a bit more efficient than usual on his way to a top-12 finish among quarterbacks.
- He’s also among the top 12 quarterbacks this week because Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields have byes.
SIT
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Mayfield has scored the 16th-most fantasy points this season, with three quarterbacks ahead of him in a bye week.
- One of the reasons he is ranked so high is because he has managed to stay healthy, which has led to numerous pass attempts. He has thrown the eighth most passes this season.
- He ranks just 20th among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game this season.
- Mayfield faces the Carolina Panthers, who have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, in Week 13.
- The Buccaneers are heavy favorites against the Carolina Panthers, who just fired their head coach.
- Tampa Bay runs the ball with a lead 52.6% of the time, the sixth-highest rate in the NFL, and throws the ball with a deficit 70% of the time, the seventh-highest rate. This means that the fantasy value for Buccaneers players is more dependent on the script of the game compared to other teams.
- The Panthers have been an average coverage defense this season, but game plans have resulted in opposing quarterbacks underperforming due to a lack of passing volume.
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
- Smith is one of 12 quarterbacks ranked in the top five over the last three weeks. The other 11 quarterbacks are either fantasy starters or have a bye this week.
- The Seahawks have the third-worst matchup for quarterbacks this week against the Dallas Cowboys, according to PFF’s Strength of Schedule tool.
- The Cowboys have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.
- Smith has played better against zone defenses than against the man this season, with a PFF pass percentage of 76.6 against the zone compared to 68.2 against the man.
- His 5.7% turnover percentage against men is the fifth highest among quarterbacks.
- The Cowboys offer the second-highest man coverage in the NFL.
- While not many fantasy managers likely thought about signing Smith, he joined Baker Mayfield as the only quarterbacks to be drafted in at least 10% of ESPN leagues last week but not ranked in the top 13 or in a bye week.
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