Cover 7 | Sunday A daily NFL destination that provides in-depth analysis of football’s biggest stories. Every Sunday, three of The Athletic’s NFL writers react to the biggest news, plays and performances from the day’s games.
The NFL playoffs are fast approaching and some teams picked up convincing wins in Week 13 to solidify their wins while others suffered tough losses.
No game embodied both sides of that coin more than the one that took place on Sunday in Houston. The Texans and Denver Broncos battled to the end, with Houston’s defense stiffening with its back to its own end zone. But Texans safety Jimmy Ward came through and intercepted Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson to seal the Texans’ victory.
The win puts Houston at 7-5 and right in the AC playoff hunt, while Denver will need some help now at 6-6.
Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions are in no danger of missing the playoffs. Although the 21-0 lead against the New Orleans Saints quickly evaporated, they were able to hold on to the win 33-28 and were now 9-3. Still, one has to wonder how the bleeding portends a team that has struggled to score like New Orleans on how it will perform in the playoffs against the NFC elite.
Speaking of the NFC elite: The San Francisco 49ers proved to be the best of their team on Sunday, defeating the Eagles 42-19 in Philadelphia. The 10-2 Eagles are still holding on to the No. 1 seed, but 9-3 San Francisco has certainly made an impressive statement.
On the other end of the spectrum, the New York Jets and New England Patriots are each in losing seasons. For the Jets, a 13-8 home loss to Atlanta may have effectively ended any chance of quarterback Aaron Rodgers returning this season. At 4-8, the Jets’ chances of making the playoffs are almost gone.
The 2-10 Patriots, who lost 6-0 to the Los Angeles Chargers, are actually the worst team in the AFC, but the glimmer of hope is that they may be the front runner and land one of the top two picks in the upcoming NFL Draft could. As they free fall into a franchise-caliber rookie quarterback, it’s fascinating to think about who the coach will be responsible for his development.
Athletic NFL writers Mike Jones, Ted Nguyen and Dan Pompei share their thoughts on all of these storylines.
There are no concerns about the Lions’ offense. It’s one of the best units in the NFL. But does the way Detroit’s defense played today and in recent games make you worry about their ability to beat teams like the Eagles, 49ers and Cowboys in the postseason?
Jones: Yes. This has been a problem for a long time. Compared to last season, they improved slightly in terms of yards and points allowed. In 2022, they gave up 392.4 yards and 25.1 points per game. This year it’s 318.8 yards and 23.5 points.
Detroit struggles in the red zone, allowing opponents to score touchdowns on 68.8 percent of their drives inside the 20, third-worst in the league. Despite these shortcomings, Dan Campbell’s team won this season. But once they reach the postseason, this will likely prove to be their undoing. Philadelphia, San Francisco and Dallas all have strong offenses and the ability to engage in a shootout with anyone, and perhaps more importantly, all three have defenses capable of making game-winning plays. The Lions are also among the worst in the league when it comes to takeaways and will therefore likely come up short.
Nguyen: The Lions’ defense is bottom of the league in several respects, as the Ravens have a 38-point lead over them. They have to sell out to stop the rush, so they give up a lot of room for gaming action. Their offense is as good as any in the NFL, but they need to win shootouts when playing against some of the top competition. It’s a hard way to live, but that’s just how the Lions are built. Your offense must force opposing offenses to get used to a passing game by scoring often and early. It will be extremely difficult for them to get stops if they are behind by more than one possession.
Pompeii: Yes. The Lions’ defense was their downfall last year. This year is better, but they still allow too many points and don’t make critical stops when needed. The good news for the Lions is that help could be on the way. Opponents double-teamed Aidan Hutchinson for most of the season, and the Lions were unable to take advantage of other rushers. They have to hope that James Houston, who had eight sacks as a rookie last year, can return soon from his ankle problem. They could also get a significant boost if CJ Gardner-Johnson bounces back from his torn pectoral muscle. Gardner-Johnson was one of the team’s key offseason additions, but has not played since the second game of the season.
The 49ers didn’t just beat the Eagles. They beat the reigning NFC champions. It’s a simple question, but one that everyone will ask themselves: Are the 49ers now the presumptive Super Bowl favorites?
Jones: It was definitely an impressive performance, but I won’t call them presumptive Super Bowl favorites in Week 13. The 49ers and Eagles have been competing for the title of most complete team in the league this season. San Francisco certainly made it clear on Sunday that they deserved this title.
But we also saw the 49ers perform poorly. This was the first time we saw that the Eagles really didn’t have what it took. I was obviously hoping to see an instant classic, but this result made sense. Coming into this game with a 10-1 record and a five-game winning streak, the Eagles were hot but also appeared to be in for a bad day, especially given the physical and emotional toll of their last three wins. There was the tough division win (28-23) against Dallas, a heavyweight battle (21-17) against the Chiefs and another eventful battle (37-34) against the Bills – late-game comebacks were required in each of those games, the last two . If the Eagles and 49ers played each other three more times, we would most likely have a 2-2 tie in the series. It will be interesting to see the Eagles’ reaction to this loss next week when they face the Cowboys again, but I’m already praying to the football gods for a rematch in the NFC Championship.
Nguyen: The 49ers have always been my Super Bowl favorites. There is simply no team as complete as them. Doubters assumed the quarterback would be a weakness, and it’s fair to question Brock Purdy’s ceiling, but he’s playing at such a high level right now. He simply threw four touchdowns on the road and kept making the right plays. I don’t think this game reflects the divide between the 49ers and Eagles. The Eagles played three tough games in 13 days, including last week’s overtime game against Buffalo. I have a feeling we’ll see a more competitive rematch in the playoffs.
Pompeii: This game showed us that there is no presumptive Super Bowl favorite. The 49ers may be playing the best football in the league in early December, but they need to maintain their level of play to secure this title. Their Christmas game against the Ravens will tell us a lot about the 49ers. They currently have no more wins in the NFC than the Lions and Cowboys and still have one fewer wins than the Eagles. That being said, it’s safe to say that there is no better team in the league today than San Francisco.
The Jets have now fallen to 4-8 after falling to the Falcons. Are we officially done talking about Aaron Rodgers?
Jones: We should be. But Rodgers will still find a way to insert himself into the conversation because he loves being at the center of the action. It wouldn’t surprise me if he’s still trying – or at least seems like he’s trying – to come back. It feels like he has nothing to gain, but maybe he’d rather knock off some rust and see how his Achilles holds up. But if I’m on the Jets and trying to protect my investment, I say, let’s just practice and give ourselves more time to heal. But that’s just me.
GO DEEPER
If Aaron Rodgers is considering a Jets return, don’t ask him why. “Do you know my story?”
Nguyen: Yes. I’m not sure it was ever realistic for him to play again that season, especially when the playoffs were unlikely. The risk of another catastrophic injury behind the Jets’ offensive line and a slim chance at the playoffs could mean the end of his career at his age. Unfortunately, the Jets wasted another year of elite defense because they couldn’t find a better option than Zach Wilson.
Pompeii: The only victory that has Rodgers coming back at this point is Rodgers going where no one has gone before. It would add to his legend. And it obviously means something to Rodgers. Therefore, the possibility should not be ruled out until Rodgers or coach Robert Saleh says it no longer exists. Rodgers hasn’t worked as hard as he has to give up. Football players like Rodgers want to play, no matter the circumstances. Personally, I would like to see it.
Houston picked up a decisive win today against fellow AFC wild card contender Denver. Do you expect the Texans to make the playoffs, and if so, is DeMeco Ryans hands down the NFL Coach of the Year?
Jones: Yes. No question. No one outside of Texans headquarters (and perhaps even some inside) expected Houston to do well this season. It was supposed to be a year full of growing pains and lessons learned. Instead, Ryans has completely transformed this force into a legitimate force.
Praise Ryans for his decision to bring offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik from San Francisco to Houston. Slowik was unproven, having never served as a play caller while working under coach Kyle Shanahan. But he’s clearly masterful at the offense, quarterback development and game management. And Ryans also identified key veterans he was able to recruit as leaders for the young defense that is now playing at a high level. If Ryans were placed on the playoff roster by one of the worst teams, Ryans would be a slam dunk for Coach of the Year. Even if they narrowly miss the playoffs, I still think he deserves it.
Nguyen: When you look at how bad the Texans have been in recent years and how they are playing this year, I think Ryans needs to be taken into consideration. Their offense has made great strides with CJ Stroud and Slowik, and while their defense doesn’t have much talent, they play hard and are well coached. Ryans has an excellent sense of how to communicate what he wants to do to opposing quarterbacks and how to surprise an offense with pressure. If it’s about the biggest impact, the award should go to Ryans, but of course voters could also simply vote for one of the coaches of a top-seeded team.
Pompeii: I would be surprised if the Texans weren’t a playoff team. The remaining schedule is going well for them, Stroud continues to improve and the Texans have gained momentum. Ryans has done a remarkable job of rebuilding a 3-13 team and is a strong candidate for Coach of the Year, but it’s too early to say he should win the award. There are many options available right now, including Miami’s Mike McDaniel, Jacksonville’s Doug Pederson, Philadelphia’s Nick Sirianni, Cleveland’s Kevin Stefanski and Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin.
GO DEEPER
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After a brutal 6-0 loss to the Chargers, it looks like the 2-10 Patriots will land a coveted top-two pick next season NFL Draft. If that happens, what are the chances that owner Robert Kraft will give coach Bill Belichick the opportunity to attempt a rebuild around Caleb Williams or Drake Maye?
Jones: It’s hard to say, but there will definitely be some long, hard conversations between Kraft and Belichick this offseason. I don’t think the draft position matters. It depends on Kraft’s continued confidence in Belichick’s abilities as a talent evaluator, as there have been numerous mistakes by Belichick, the personnel director, over the last few offseasons.
Roster construction was the main reason the Patriots are so bad. It’s not that Belichick’s players don’t play hard or are undisciplined. New England had swings and misses at key positions and also lacked the overall skill, speed and depth to keep up. Would Belichick be willing to give up some power in this area to stay with the Patriots? Does he even want to endure another reconstruction? Kraft must find answers to all of these questions before making his decision.
Nguyen: I feel like this decision doesn’t depend on this game or any other game this season. Either you believe Belichick didn’t have enough playmakers on offense and a quarterback to mold, or you believe the game passed him by. Sure, it would be nice to see some sort of juice from Zappe, but that’s unlikely, and anyone who’s seen this team knows that. If you’re trusting Zappe to save this offense to save Belichick’s job, he’s one dead man. I think Kraft needs to discuss getting some new voices into the building, especially in terms of offensive coordinator who will be working with a potential high draft pick.
Pompeii: Kraft will likely make a judgment call on Belichick/his future coach, as he should, regardless of the team’s draft slot. The Patriots need the best coach possible to guide them through the rebuild and potentially develop a quarterback. Belichick can develop a quarterback, no question. The main reason Kraft would leave Belichick is that he may believe he is no longer the coach he was. The secondary reason would be that he believes the organization needs change. The third reason would be that he believes the 71-year-old won’t be around long enough to see a rebuild through.
(Photo by Dan Campbell: Mike Mulholland/Getty Images)