The 2022 NFL season was full of exciting endgames and unpredictable outcomes, but nothing beat the Week 15 playlist. This marked the first week in NFL history that three teams had comeback wins by 17+ points, all of which turned playoff races.
The Cincinnati Bengals shot down from 17th place to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to take first place in the AFC North alone. The Jacksonville Jaguars went within a game for first place in the AFC South with a comeback win over the Dallas Cowboys and helped the Philadelphia Eagles take a lead in the NFC East with three games left. Of course, the Minnesota Vikings won the NFC North Saturday after their 33-point comeback win — the largest overcoming deficit in NFL history.
Comeback wins and thrilling league finishes saw plenty of food stalls at Sunday afternoon’s games. Which are reality and which are overreactions? Here’s a look.
The Cowboys won’t win a playoff game
Overreaction or reality: overreaction
Dallas hasn’t even looked close to a Super Bowl-caliber team in recent weeks and needed a drive late in the fourth quarter to beat the Houston Texans with a win last week. In Week 15, the Cowboys gambled away a 17-point lead against the Jacksonville Jaguars to lose in overtime.
Forget the NFC East, the Cowboys are three behind the Philadelphia Eagles in the division with three games to play and the Eagles own the head-to-head tiebreaker. All the Eagles have to do is win a game to win the division (it doesn’t have to be in Week 16 in Dallas).
Can this team win a playoff game in a month with the way they play? Certainly this isn’t a formula for doing it – underperforming against under-.500 teams from the AFC South. But the Cowboys will pick up the NFC South winner in the first round of the playoffs barring an epic collapse, and despite their looks over the past two weeks, they should beat any team.
The Jaguars will win the AFC South
Overreaction or reality: reality
Jacksonville is just a game behind the Tennessee Titans for the division lead with three games remaining — with the head-to-head tiebreaker in hand. The Titans are 7-6 after losing to the Chargers and the Jaguars improved to 6-7 after defeating the Cowboys.
The Titans and Jaguars will face off in Week 18, with Tennessee taking on Houston and Dallas before this match. Jacksonville meets the New York Jets in a short week, followed by Houston before the regular season finale.
The Jaguars still need some help, but their path to the playoffs is here. With the way the Titans are playing, Jacksonville could lose this division.
The Bengals will be No. 1 in the AFC
Overreaction or reality: overreaction
That’s a bit hasty, even though Cincinnati is one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now. The Bengals are tied for first place in the AFC North, a game behind the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs for the top seed in the conference. There is a path for the Bengals to get the top seed in the AFC coming in Week 17 against the Bills.
If Cincinnati wins this game, the Bengals will have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bills and the Chiefs. Cincinnati has yet to finish the job against Baltimore, who are a game out of division with the head-to-head tiebreaker in tow.
The Bengals have a lot of work to do to become No. 1 and need some help (Kansas City have lost one of their last three games). This is possible, but not the most likely outcome.
Patrick Mahomes will break NFL record for passyards in one season
Overreaction or reality: reality
Mahomes is for 4,496 yards in 14 games, which is an average of 321.1 yards per game. Peyton Manning holds the single-season pass yards record with 5,477, requiring Mahomes 982 pass yards in his last three games to break the mark (325.7 yards per game).
That’s more than achievable for a quarterback, which is why his team is among the best in the NFL. The Chiefs need Mahomes to play at the MVP level every week and he’s delivering. Mahomes needs just 754 yards in his last three games to set the league record for pass + rush yards in a season (Drew Brees has that mark with 5,562).
Both disks are in play. Mahomes will be the hardest to reach.
Jalen Hurts will set single-season rushing TD record by a QB
Overreaction or reality: reality
Hurts has 13 rushing touchdowns this season, ranking second alone for most rushing touchdowns in a season by a quarterback in NFL history. The Philadelphia Eagles quarterback needs just a touchdown to tie Cam Newton’s record 14 — two to pass him.
Hurts has three plays to grab two rushing touchdowns, and the Eagles always seem to let him run the ball inside the 2-yard line. Newton’s brand will be tied – at least.
The Lions will make the playoffs
Overreaction or reality: reality
Yes, that was mentioned last week. It deserves a repeat after Detroit’s win over the New York Jets and the loss to the Seattle Seahawks this week. The Lions are still No. 9 in the conference thanks to Seattle, who own the direct tiebreaker, but Detroit should — in the worst case scenario — be a half-game behind the Commanders and Giants for the final playoff spot in the conference .
The Lions finish with the Panthers, Bears and Packers – all teams with losing records. No matter who wins between Washington or New York, Detroit’s at least nine wins are now a reality. The Lions could even go 10-7 with their style of play.
Whoever wins between Washington and New York seems to get one of the wildcard playoff spots in the NFC. Detroit seems on track to get the other.
Mike Tomlin will finish with a lossless season
Overreaction or reality: overreaction
Avoiding a losing season secured with their win over the Panthers, the Steelers improved to 6-8 with three games to go. Pittsburgh will need to get his way for Tomlin to keep his streak alive at 17 – a task that won’t be easy.
Pittsburgh ends its season with Las Vegas (6-8), Baltimore (9-5) and Cleveland (6-8) – with the lone road game in Baltimore. The margin for error is small, but the Steelers are also still in the playoff race (although their playoff chances are slim).
It’s hard to see the Steelers win, but Pittsburgh can make it interesting.