Cover 7 | Sunday A daily NFL destination that provides in-depth analysis of football's biggest stories. Every Sunday, three of The Athletic's NFL writers react to the biggest news, plays and performances from the day's games.
Entering Week 15 of the NFL season, only two teams (the Carolina Panthers and the New England Patriots) had been eliminated from the playoffs. Four more were added on Sunday: the New York Jets, Tennessee Titans, Washington Commanders and Arizona Cardinals.
Tennessee held a 13-0 lead over the Houston Texans, who lost offensive rookie of the year candidate CJ Stroud to a concussion. But backup quarterback Case Keenum helped his team to a decisive 19-16 overtime victory that kept Houston in the thick of the AFC wild-card race and within striking distance of the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC South.
Meanwhile, the struggling Panthers dealt a major blow to the Atlanta Falcons' playoff hopes in the NFC South by pulling off a rain-soaked 9-7 upset. This result, as well as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' win at the Green Bay Packers and the New Orleans Saints' home win over the New York Giants, left Atlanta one game behind in the division. The Buccaneers and Saints, who meet in Tampa Bay on December 31, remain tied at the top of the division.
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But the door is also wide open for the much-criticized NFC South to secure two playoff spots, thanks in large part to every NFC North team except the Detroit Lions being eliminated in Week 15. The Chicago Bears, two playoff spots behind them, win. The Minnesota Vikings and Lions let a 17-7 lead (and a last-second Hail Mary) slip away in a 20-17 loss. Instead, Cleveland Browns backup quarterback Joe Flacco was the hero of the day, throwing three interceptions to spark a late – and very important – comeback.
And while the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers took care of business late in the afternoon, the Buffalo Bills followed up a Week 14 road win over the Kansas City Chiefs with a standout performance against the Dallas Cowboys.
Athletic NFL writers Mike Jones, Ted Nguyen and Dan Pompei share their thoughts on Sunday's biggest developments.
Did Sunday's 31-10 Buffalo tell us more about the Bills as a rising contender or the Cowboys (who secured a playoff spot despite their loss) as a team with something to prove?
Jones: The Bills showed why people around the league say no one wants a part of Buffalo in the playoffs. This team is finally reaching its potential and is already in playoff mode because they put themselves in such a hole that there was no room for error. The Cowboys haven't pulled out all the stops like we've seen, but Buffalo is hungry and can step up a gear that few teams can.
Most impressively, the Bills beat the Cowboys on a day when Josh Allen completed just 7 of 15 passes for 94 yards and a touchdown. The Bills have struggled to run the ball this season, but they defeated Dallas with 266 rushing yards, with James Cook leading the way (179 yards and a TD on 25 carries). Meanwhile, the Bills' defense held previously hot Dak Prescott in check (21 of 34 for 134 yards and one interception) and stopped the Cowboys on eight of 13 third-down attempts.
Nguyen: It tells us a lot about the Cowboys. I definitely would have been impressed with a Bills win, but the Cowboys got crushed, and this isn't the first time they've been eliminated on the road – they lost 42-10 to the 49ers in Week 5. The Bills have a lot going for them in their running game worked, but the Cowboys couldn't even slow them down. Allen attempted just 15 passes for 94 yards, and the Bills dominated.
The Bills defense was impressive. Few believed the Bills would have a chance to slow the Cowboys, in part because they were terribly good at defending the midfield line, where the Cowboys like to attack. But the Cowboys' inability to run the ball efficiently hurt them.
Pompeii: I'm going to call the Cowboys' performance a bad day. This was not the team we saw dominating in the last five games. There seems to be an inordinate amount of skepticism about the Cowboys, as if one loss is more important than five convincing wins.
The Bills, on the other hand, have been inconsistent but have won two of three games, including wins against two of the better teams in the league. The defense has suffered some serious injuries but could bounce back at the right time of the season. The Bills are well-positioned to make the playoffs and possibly pull off an upset or two in the postseason if they continue as they are.
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The Jets dropped to 5-9 with a 30-0 loss to the Miami Dolphins and have no chance of making the postseason. However, reports on Sunday said Aaron Rodgers could return in Week 16. Is there any reason why he (or the team) should push for that comeback now?
Jones: It's silly to risk rushing back onto the field in a lost season, but I also understand that Rodgers wants to brush off some rust over the last few weeks and have something to build on for next season. And Robert Saleh and his assistants would probably like to point to a few positive bets as the Jets' leadership reviews the season and weighs whether to make changes. But otherwise the risks seem to outweigh the opportunities.
Nguyen: The only reason Rodgers is coming back at this point is so Rodgers can show the world he pulled off a medical miracle — but it's also risky because the Jets may have the worst offensive line in the league. It would be catastrophic if Rodgers suffered another injury that would affect him well into next season.
I can see it a bit from Rodgers' perspective: He's been hitting rehab hard and wants a little reward. But from a franchise perspective, it's an unnecessary risk.
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Pompeii: Rodgers would add to his legacy by becoming the player who came back from a torn Achilles tendon faster than anyone ever. It could also give others confidence in their recovery. And from a team perspective, one season flows into the next in the NFL – the momentum built at the end of the 2023 season could change the way the Jets approach the offseason or even influence decisions in the front office and coaching staff.
It's also possible that playing will help determine Rodgers' future. Maybe it convinces him he has more to offer – or maybe it tells him it's time to retire. One thing is certain: Rodgers' return would make the Jets visible, something they otherwise wouldn't be.
Tampa Bay and New Orleans face each other at the top of the NFC South. Who will take over the division – and will this team pose a threat as a No. 4 seed?
Jones: I prefer Tampa Bay. The Bucs currently have the momentum after winning three straight. Baker Mayfield appears to be as comfortable on offense as he has been all year, and the defense is playing well enough to provide the support needed to keep things going. They have some difficult games ahead of them (next week they host Jacksonville, then New Orleans in what could ultimately decide the division). But New Orleans must travel to LA to play the Rams before taking on Tampa Bay, and then face an elimination against Atlanta – which (despite the Panthers win on Sunday) is more impressive than Carolina, the Bucs' last opponent in the regular season.
So at the moment, Tampa Bay appears to be the narrow favorite. Can it pose a threat in the playoffs? You never know, especially if the Bucs continue to build on this momentum. But it's still hard to imagine they'll achieve major success.
Nguyen: The Bucs have an advantage. Their offense is humming right now and it looks like they have the most difference makers (Mike Evans, Vita Vea, Antoine Winfield Jr.) of the NFC South teams. They also developed a running game that helped take pressure off Mayfield. The Saints had a decisive win over the Giants, but I don't trust them against a decent quarterback.
The Buccaneers could upset someone as the fourth seed, but that depends on the matchup.
Pompeii: The Bucs are ahead at the moment. Interestingly, they are 3-1 against divisional opponents, but we are still three games away from deciding the division and it will come down to the final week. The Falcons aren't finished yet, but it's becoming apparent that the Bucs or Saints will win the division.
And those are probably the two best teams in the division. However, neither may have enough gunpowder to make a real name for themselves in the playoffs. If the NFC South representative advances to the championship round, the NFL will be stunned.
The Rams are 7-7 and still have guys like Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald. How dangerous can this team be if they make the playoffs?
Jones: I don't think the Rams will make much noise in the playoffs. They have some proven playmakers on offense and defense, but there are also many young players who are still growing into their roles. Just getting into the playoffs would be a major achievement. Few people in the league gave Sean McVay's team much of a chance to start the season due to their numerous roster holes and deficiencies.
But give McVay and his staff a lot of credit for leading this team to a competitive season.
Nguyen: Stafford plays as well as any quarterback in the league and the Rams have suddenly developed an effective running game. Their defense doesn't have much talent other than Donald, but is disciplined and plays hard. If this defense can be average (or even just a little below average), the Rams will be a tough opponent for anyone. With an explosive offense and Donald rushing the passer, this team can pull off an upset.
Pompeii: The Rams are one of about a dozen teams in the “clump.” The teams that make up the group are not elite teams, but they are competitive and can beat an elite team if the stars align. They can also lose to sub-clump teams.
However, the Rams have yet to beat an elite team. All of their victories came against other clump or sub-clump teams. There's a chance they beat another clump team in the playoffs. However, if they face an elite team, it could be a different story.
Without Stroud, the Texans eked out a last-second overtime victory in Tennessee. The Browns, meanwhile, overcame Flacco's tumultuous day (and 2.5 Montez Sweat sacks) and kept Chicago away. Which victory was more impressive?
Jones: This is a difficult decision. Both victories had impressive elements, but the Texans have the slight edge. DeMeco Ryans continues to impress by getting this team to play hard and exceed expectations. The Titans aren't as star-studded as they have been in years past, but it was still a big challenge, especially without Stroud. Case Keenum was solid (229 yards, one TD, one INT), and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik was wise to rely heavily on Devin Singletary, who rushed for 121 yards. The entire team delivered a determined performance and recovered from a double-digit deficit to win.
As for the Browns, it wasn't their best performance, but they got the plays when they needed them most. Flacco once again showed why experience and depth at the quarterback position are so important. He was never overwhelmed and performed well because he had often been in high-pressure situations.
Nguyen: I thought the Texans win was more impressive. It's not often that you come back from a double-digit lead with a backup quarterback on the road. After giving up 13 points in the first half, the defense only allowed three more in the second half and overtime combined – Ryans and his team did an admirable job on that side of the ball. The win was the Texans' eighth of the season and puts them in contention for the AFC South.
This shouldn't take anything away from Flacco and the Browns, who also had to come back from a double-digit deficit. I just thought the Texans had to overcome even more factors to get the “W” today.
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Pompeii: Both were impressive, but I commend the Browns for beating a Bears team that won three of four games and played better defense than most teams in the league. The Browns also continued their winning ways despite having as many serious injuries as any other team. Flacco was off Sunday and the Browns couldn't get their running game going, but they made big plays at the right moments and tight end David Njoku continued his hot streak.
The Browns are limping to the finish line and may have limited postseason potential, but they are a resilient, determined team that deserves a lot of credit.
(Photo by Baker Mayfield: Patrick McDermott / Getty Images)
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