Week 9 of the NFL had four big matchups and four different time slots, making it the most anticipated week as we approach the halfway point of the year. The Kansas City Chiefs took care of the Miami Dolphins in Germany, while the Baltimore Ravens defeated the Seattle Seahawks in another showdown of the league’s top teams.
The Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys battled for the NFC East in a thrilling late afternoon showdown, with the Eagles emerging victorious in a game that came down to the final play. With three great matchups, there’s plenty of overreaction on the afternoon slate starting in Week 9.
Which of these are overreactions and which are reality?
The Dolphins offense is only elite when it beats a good team
Overreaction or reality: reality
The Dolphins are 0-3 against teams over .500, but there’s more to their failures than just an inability to beat good teams. Their offense has taken a significant step backwards when playing against teams over .500. In the three games, the Dolphins faced teams with winning records, the offense averaged just 17 points per game and did not score more than 20 points in any game. Against these teams, they averaged just 309.7 yards per game.
Miami entered Week 9 with the No. 1 offense in points and yards per game, averaging 33.9 points and 453.2 yards. Against teams with winning records, the Dolphins haven’t come close to achieving any of those numbers, including just 14 points and 292 yards in Sunday’s loss to the Chiefs.
Maybe that’s the Dolphins offense. It just doesn’t show up against good teams.
The Chiefs have the best defense in the AFC
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
The Chiefs’ defense is very good, as evidenced by the 14 points and 292 yards the unit held to the Dolphins in Sunday’s 21-14 win in Frankfurt, Germany. Kansas City is fourth in the NFL in yards allowed (287.8), second in passing yards (176.1) and second in points allowed per game (16.1). Defense is the biggest catalyst for Kansas City’s 7-2 start and the reason the Chiefs could return to the Super Bowl again.
Thanks to the Ravens, the Chiefs defense isn’t the best in the AFC. Baltimore allows the fewest points per game (15.1) and the second fewest yards (276.5). The Ravens also rank first in goal-to-go situations (40%) and second in red zone conversion rate (35%).
Kansas City deserves to be in the conversation, but Baltimore is better.
The Ravens are the best team in the AFC
Overreaction or reality: reality
The Ravens are certainly flexing their muscles against the good teams this season and are comfortably beating the 500+ teams. Baltimore outscored Seattle 37-3, rushing for 298 yards and gaining 515 yards of offense while allowing just 151 yards. This was a dominant performance against a Seattle defense that has allowed just 15.7 points and 232.7 yards in the last three games.
Baltimore certainly has a reputation for beating good teams this year, becoming the fifth team since the merger in 1970 to record multiple 30-point wins in a season against teams playing better than .500. They are the third team since 1970 to win three straight games by more than 24 points against teams with a winning record – two of those victories coming in the last three weeks.
Baltimore has the same record as Kansas City, but the Ravens edge out the good teams on their schedule. The Ravens are playing a brutal schedule this year, but they have overcome every test against a good team.
Baltimore has been the best team in the AFC for nine weeks.
Seahawks have a low ceiling with Geno Smith
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
The Seahawks are a good team that had a bad day, but this seems to be a trending pattern in the Geno Smith era against good teams. Smith was not good on this particular day, finishing 13 of 28 for 157 yards with no touchdowns and one interception (49.3 rating).
Against teams with winning records, Smith doesn’t have bad numbers. The Seahawks are 4-3 under Smith as he has thrown 10 touchdowns and five interceptions (including Sunday’s performance). With nine touchdowns, seven interceptions and a passer rating of 86.4 (20th in the NFL), Smith hasn’t exactly had the best of years either.
Perhaps the best version of the Seahawks is the team that made the playoffs in the first round and was eliminated, but that team is tied for first place in the NFC West and has a shot at the division title. It’s unfair to put a low ceiling on the Seahawks after a bad day.
The Eagles will win the NFC East
Overreaction or reality: reality
The winner of the first Eagles-Cowboys game in recent years usually has control of the NFC East. The Cowboys defeated the Eagles in 2021 en route to the division title, while the Eagles did the same in 2022. Philadelphia and Dallas may meet again in Week 14, but Sunday’s win over the Cowboys was huge for the Eagles.
Regardless of the outcome, the Eagles persevered and took the win. Philadelphia is 2.5 games ahead of Dallas with eight games left to play and the direct tiebreaker in front of them. The Cowboys have a very loose schedule ahead of them (Giants, Panthers, Commanders, Seahawks), while the Eagles have a significant stretch of touches before meeting again (Chiefs, Bills, 49ers) – but Dallas still has a lot of ground to make up to even to catch up with Philadelphia.
The Week 14 game will be significant, but Dallas needed to win on Sunday to have a shot at the division. Unless the Cowboys go 4-0 in the next four games, that doesn’t seem to be an option.
Mike McCarthy cost the Cowboys the Super Bowl
Overreaction or reality: reality
The Cowboys look to the 49ers and Eagles, two teams they were 0-2 against in the first half of the season. That doesn’t bode well for a Super Bowl contender, does it? That falls to McCarthy.
Dallas played well enough to win on Sunday, but situational football eluded them as the Cowboys had multiple chances to snatch victory from an Eagles team that was trying to lose this game. The Cowboys turned the ball over on downs twice in the second half and scored first-and-goal from the Eagles’ 6-yard line with 27 seconds left in a 28-23 game, but lost yards due to two penalties and a sack. That set up Dallas for an impossible third-and-26 conversion from the Eagles’ 27 with five seconds left and no timeouts. The Cowboys failed to score and lost the game.
This team is not a good situational football team. That starts with McCarthy, who was lethargic with time management throughout the game and the situation where Dallas was behind. The Cowboys won’t be a Super Bowl team because of McCarthy as the NFC East was in their hands.
In typical Cowboys fashion, they failed to get the job done in a big moment.
Josh Dobbs will lead the Vikings to the playoffs
Overreaction or reality: reality
It’s unbelievable what Dobbs was able to do for Minnesota after Sunday’s win. He didn’t let the offense miss a beat in practice all week and taught them his rhythm on the sideline when he came on for Jaren Hall in the second quarter.
All Dobbs did was throw the game-winning touchdown pass to Brandon Powell with 22 seconds left in a thrilling 31-28 victory, capping a day in which he had two touchdown passes, a rushing score and two fumbles managed 20 of 30 for 158 yards (101.8 rating). Dobbs was traded to the Vikings five days ago and was benched by the Cardinals last week.
The Vikings are 5-4 and in control of their playoff fate. They have a quarterback that several teams have relied on to hold down the line over the last two years. With a competent offense, Minnesota could get the best out of Dobbs en route to a surprising playoff berth.
Wait until Dobbs actually knows his players.