NFL pick 1
Last week we were strong again with NFL betting! In fact, the two choices I shared with you turned out to be winners (Vikings +3.5 over the Bengals and the Bucs +3.5 over the Packers).
Over the entire season, my NFL team and total picks totaled 46 wins, 33 losses, and 3 ties (all shared on mjpicks.com). This corresponds to a success rate of 58%.
Let's talk about serious things. My top pick for the NFL is for the Packers to score more than 20.5 points. They face the Panthers.
For what? First of all, Carolina's best cornerback, Donte Jackson, is a questionable case. All signs point to him missing the game, which would be a huge boost for Jordan Love and his Packers. With the Panthers eliminated from the playoffs, there is no reason to put Jackson back in action.
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Jordan Love and the entire offense have taken a step forward in recent weeks. They have scored more than 20.5 points each of the last five weeks, except last week when they missed that mark by half a point. The Packers have the youngest offense in the entire league, so it's no surprise that they have improved significantly over the course of the season.
I also like this bet because Green Bay faces a very weak offense. In fact, the Panthers have scored the fourth-fewest points in the NFL this season. Why is it important? Because that means they can't handle long journeys. Carolina tends to run 3-6 plays on offense before giving the ball back to their opponents after a punt or turnover. This gives the Packers more opportunities to score points.
To top it off, I think Green Bay's defense is strengthening after a poor performance against the Bucs. In that game, the defense was torched for a total of 452 yards in front of the home crowd. Confronting Bryce Young is a good way to make amends.
We will likely finally have Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon in the Packers backfield. Both appear to be a little banged up but should be on the field this Sunday.
NFL pick 2
My second NFL tip this week is for fewer than 44 points to be scored in the Cardinals' game against the Bears.
If you just focus on Arizona's away games, six out of seven games ended with a total score under 44. Now if you look at Chicago's games at Soldier Field, you'll notice that four out of six games ended with a total score under 44 the board. So if you combine both, you end up with a score of 10:3, which speaks in favor of our bet.
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Both clubs rank in the bottom half when it comes to passing offense. Both are now in the top 10 in rushing yards per game. To me, that's a sign that there may be a lot of play on the field, causing the clock to keep ticking.
Chicago is also called the “Windy City” for good reason. This could make throwing the ball more difficult, which is also an advantage for weaker players.
My NHL choice
Last Saturday, we found the Montreal Canadiens to be good underdogs to bet on against the Islanders due to the “fatigue factor.” In fact, Lane Lambert's troupe had to travel at night to get to Montreal. CH responded with a nice 5:3 win.
Today there are four clubs who will benefit from a rest advantage, meaning these teams had Friday off while their opponents worked. However, one of them in particular caught my attention: the New Jersey Devils.
The latter will not only have benefited from a break on Friday, but will also be at home for the fourth time in a row. In other words, no travel for a while.
Their opponent on Saturday evening will be the Detroit Red Wings. Since December 12th they have had to travel a lot: to St. Louis, back home, to Philadelphia, back home, to Winnipeg, yesterday home and today to New Jersey. What a strange and tiring schedule!
Even though the Devils have performed better on the road than at home so far this season, I have full confidence that New Jersey will defeat the Red Wings on Saturday night at the Prudential Center.
Merry Christmas to everyone!