The trade
get jets: Nino Niederreiter
Get Predators: 2024 second round selection
Dom Luszczyszyn: It’s pretty amazing that a useful player like Nino Niederreiter – one who has cost control for another season – could only pick a second-round pick for the Nashville Predators. Cap space remains the big equalizer in a still flat-cap world, and while Niederreiter is worth his $4 million cap hit, that’s still not an easy sum to swallow.
In Niederreiter, the Jets get a very efficient second-line scorer who hits the net hard and creates chances. He’s not a good passer, but he can put the puck in the net. That season, his 1.16 goals per 60 in 5-on-5 ranked him second to Filip Forsberg in the Predators and 39th overall in the league.
That alone makes it a tidy deal for a second-round player, but Niederreiter’s game goes further. For most of his career, Niederreiter has been an analyst favorite for his ability to drive the game, and it has remained so for the past three seasons. In that span, his teams with Niederreiter on the ice have had an expected goal difference that is 0.45 per 60 higher and an actual goal difference that is half a goal per 60 higher. His inclination is offensive, but his numbers are also useful without the puck, where he has a positive impact on expected and actual goals conceded. His impact has also been consistent season after season – even after signing with Nashville – making him a safer bet to maintain his influence at a new club.
Niedereiter isn’t the missing element that makes the Jets the team to beat in the west, or the top student that some of his underlying numbers make him. But he’s a nice addition that really strengthens the team’s top 9 and adds more depth after the top 6. He’s also adding insurance for the next two months as Cole Perfetti is out through injury and the extra year on his contract means he’s not a rental either. It’s not the sexiest addition, but there’s really nothing to complain about on Winnipeg’s part.
This is especially true given the cost, which seems incredibly low for a true top 6 player. Maybe it’s a testament to the market and what types of players it values, but it still feels like Nashville should have gotten more of that — especially given the extra year on Niederreiter’s contract. This is a clear victory for the Jets and a clear disappointment for the Predators.
Predator class: C+
Jets class: A
Sean Gentille: For a trade with a second-round pick and a non-marquee name — Niederreiter is a good player and a valuable meme, but he’s not a big fish — this one is a serious consequence. It would have been a fallback plan for the losers in Patrick Kane and Timo Meier’s doubles sweepstakes. Now that Kane-to-the-Rangers is chugging along and Meier’s own trial is unfolding, Mr. Fuel/Fire/etc. is from the market.
Winnipeg had lingered on the fringes of the Meier discussions, and that’s where they made sense as an option; If they didn’t have a contract extension in hand, they could probably have accepted his one-season qualifying offer for 2024-25 and attempted to sell him as a centerpiece of the next phase of the franchise. Beyond that, though, they’re at the top of a crowded Western Conference, and they needed an extra forward or two to make their mark. The need was only made worse by Cole Perfetti’s injury.
They got one in Niederreiter. He has been a reliable goalscorer in recent years (86th overall since 2017-18) and he is on track to reach 30 for the first time. Mason Appleton is Winnipeg’s current top right winger alongside Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor. Niederreiter will fix this issue and make the jets’ depth map look a lot more like that of a top contender. They are still thin but the situation is much more workable now than it was on Saturday morning. If Meier wasn’t an option, this is a solid plan B. The West is winnable by multiple teams, and the Jets are one of them.
The Predators aren’t – and they too have to deal with that part of reality. The win-now roster created by David Poile was mostly theoretical; There’s no point going all-in on a group that woke up Saturday with an 18 percent chance of making it into the postseason. Due to his productivity and contract, Niederreiter was one of their most moving plays. Now Poile should focus on selling every player he can – because the mix doesn’t work the way he is.
It’s an interesting flare to fire off as we enter the final week. Could Matt Duchene replace Niederreiter as Kane-Meier contingency plan? He carries an AAV of $8 million through 2026. What would offers for Tanner Jeannot look like? He’s the kind of playoff wrecking ball that playoff GMs dream of. Michael Granlund? Matthew Ekholm? There are parts on this list, although the end product is not relevant. If we could give extra credit for bringing some storytelling fun into the deadline, Nashville would get some. Unfortunately, that’s not part of the job. The return is fine – Niederreiter wasn’t a first option for a reason – but not overwhelming; He got them the same return as Garnet Hathaway did for the Caps.
Predator class: B-
Jets class:A
(Photo: John Russell/NHLI via Getty Images)