Kevin Seifert, ESPN Staff Writer December 14, 2023, 7:00 a.m. ET
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- Kevin Seifert is a staff writer who covers the Minnesota Vikings and the NFL for ESPN. Kevin has been covering the NFL for over 20 years and joined ESPN in 2008. He was previously a beat reporter for the Minneapolis Star Tribune and The Washington Times. He is a graduate of the University of Virginia. You can follow him on Twitter @SeifertESPN.
EAGAN, Minn. – When quarterback Nick Mullens steps behind center Saturday in Cincinnati, he will give the Minnesota Vikings a chance to make history.
Stay with us here for a minute.
Mullens will be the Vikings' fourth starting quarterback in the last seven games, joining Kirk Cousins, Jaren Hall and Joshua Dobbs. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the Vikings will be the 29th NFL team since 1950 to experience this level of turnover at the position.
However, that's not the wild part. Such a turn of events usually resulted in disaster. In fact, only four of the previous 28 teams have made the playoffs, and all of them – most recently the 2013 Green Bay Packers – got their original starter back for at least part of the remainder of the season. And even in the turbulent interim, none of them managed to get all four starters in this seven-game stretch.
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The 2023 Vikings would be first if Mullens — who was named the team's starting quarterback this week by coach Kevin O'Connell — could lead them to a win over the Bengals. If he can do that, the Vikings would have an excellent chance (78.5%) of becoming the first team in NFL history to make the playoffs after losing their starting quarterback for the season and three other starters, according to ESPN's Football Power Index changed their lineup so quickly after the injury.
Even if they lose on Saturday, FPI would still give them a 51.5% chance of reaching the postseason, albeit in a larger 14-team field than some of their predecessors. Put more simply, the Vikings are well on their way to one of the objectively least likely playoff runs in NFL history.
“With the quarterback situation, that’s obviously the leader of our offense,” tight end TJ Hockenson said. “We have confidence in all these guys. When they came into the group, every single one of them had the confidence to throw the ball and do their job, which was incredible.” [The history is] I haven’t really looked at it, but it’s something we’ve been able to get through and will continue to do.”
The Vikings use what O'Connell calls a “week-to-week offense” to accommodate the frequent changes. But in an alternate universe, none of this would have been necessary. Mullens opened the season as the Vikings' No. 2 quarterback, and had he not been sidelined by a back injury in mid-October, he – and not Hall – would have replaced Cousins after the latter ruptured his right Achilles tendon Oct. 29 at Lambeau Field.
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“There are a lot of emotions,” Mullens said. “Obviously Kirk played at an All-Pro level. So it's great to just see and experience that. That's the standard it looks like. And then this happens. These were obviously uncertain times for everyone. Just take it step by step. … You have to keep your head down as a group, and that's what this team did. We’ve been through a lot this year and the year isn’t over yet.”
Mullens previously made a career out of taking jobs left vacant by injuries, starting eight games for the San Francisco 49ers in both 2018 and 2020 and one for the Cleveland Browns in 2021. The Vikings acquired him at the end of training camp in 2022 and then re-signed him as a free agent in the spring.
His 16 months on offense puts him well ahead of Hall – a fifth-round draft pick earlier this year – and Dobbs, who the Vikings famously acquired at the Oct. 31 trade deadline. NFL teams often look to fill their secondary spot with a player who can mirror the starter's skill set and mentality, and Mullens grew close with Cousins during his time in Minnesota.
The pair even took a trip last offseason to visit retired quarterbacks and brainstorm what approaches worked and didn't as they looked back on their careers, Cousins said in August. And it was remarkable to watch Mullens approach his relief appearance Sunday in Las Vegas, firing his first pass 26 yards downfield to Hockenson and throwing for more yards (83) on 13 attempts than Dobbs (63) on 23 throws.
“Nick knows this offense well,” Vikings offensive coordinator Wes Phillips said. “He’s been with us for a while. … As grateful as I am for Josh, Nick probably feels more comfortable in our system just because he's here longer and gets the reps during an offseason and training camp.”
Dobbs had the NFL's fourth-highest interception rate (3.4%) during his five-game stay, and on several occasions his passes came too early or too late – a trend that became more apparent after watching Mullens on Sunday receiver hit in phase. Mullens doesn't have nearly the agility that Dobbs showed, rushing for 163 yards and three touchdowns in his stint. But in the end, O'Connell said, NFL teams “still have to back off and throw the football.”
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Receiver Justin Jefferson made it clear that his connection to Cousins was “different,” but added, “Nick was right behind him.”
Regardless, it's now Mullens' turn to take the reins of an offense built around Cousins' precision passing game – and perhaps enter the history books.
“When you come in midseason,” Phillips said, “no matter what position, it’s like learning the alphabet. Everyone else learned it from A to Z.” [Dobbs] I kind of jumped in at Z. Really, you learn the game plan. And some of the words we use have a certain meaning that you don't necessarily understand. You just learn a lot of things and plays by heart.
“I know Nick is a great competitor and I know there aren't many guys who were hurting so much not being out there when he was injured. That's why I know he's really hungry for this opportunity, and I think he'll get the most out of it.”