Negotiations at COP28 continue Tuesday evening in Dubai as they await a new draft deal from the Emirati presidency, which is eager to forge an unprecedented consensus on fossil fuels, including from Saudi Arabia and its oil export allies refuse to quit.
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For 24 hours, the Emirati President of COP28, Sultan Al Jaber, has been trying to save a COP that he announced as “historic” and that could save the Paris Climate Agreement and its goal of limiting climate change °C.
His first draft text on Monday was widely rejected because it did not call for a “phase-out” of oil, gas and coal, which are the main cause of global warming, which is currently +1.2°C compared to pre-industrial levels. Having consulted in all directions and been forced to extend debates to the 13th and final day of COP28, he must now present a text capable of reaching a consensus.
On Tuesday evening, representatives from several groups of countries recognized by the UN climate organization (least developed countries, Latin American and Caribbean countries, Westerners, etc.) followed each other in his offices.
These consultations will continue until 3:00 a.m. local time (Tuesday, 11:00 p.m. GMT), before the possible publication of a new draft to be submitted to countries for approval in plenary.
“He is committed to producing a version of the text with the support of all parties,” a spokesman told AFP.
These are 194 countries and the European Union that have signed the Paris Agreement, adopted exactly eight years ago, and of which this COP aims to take stock in order to take measures to correct the current trend in global emissions.
AFP
When can the result be predicted? “Maybe tonight, maybe early tomorrow morning,” replied John Kerry, the American climate envoy, upon his arrival. “But we are making progress.”
“super majority”
The European Union, island states, the Caribbean and several in Latin America want a strong signal to phase out oil, gas and coal. According to a European source, 130 countries, including Brazil and the United States, are currently standing together for a more ambitious agreement that actually slows global warming.
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and even Iraq have taken a hard line against them, rejecting any agreement that attacks the fossil fuels that make them rich.
In the first version of the deal proposed by the COP28 president on Monday, countries would have retained complete freedom to choose their path to “reducing” fossil fuels, without obligation.
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The text would no longer have set a common target for “phasing out” fossil fuels, although this was foreseen in previous versions.
“Not married to a word”
How can we overcome the Gulf states' objection that every decision at the COP is made by consensus?
Since a conference in Doha, Kuwaiti Oil Minister Saad al-Barrak denounced an “aggressive attack” by the West. His Iraqi counterpart Hayan Abdel-Ghani judges that “fossil fuels will remain the world’s most important energy source.”
For their part, some of the countries most in favor of “exiting” oil have signaled that they are willing to sacrifice that word in exchange for significant commitments.
“I am not bound by any word, but I insist that the meaning of this wording, whatever it ends up being, must be extremely ambitious,” Danish Climate Minister Dan Jørgensen said on Tuesday.
“We are not fighting against China”
One wording could be inspired by November's so-called Sunnylands Joint Declaration between China and the United States, the world's two largest greenhouse gas emitters, which spoke of gradually replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy.
China has made no official comment since the latest text was published on Monday evening, but is not seen as an obstacle to a compromise.
“I wouldn't say China is fighting with us, but we are not fighting against China,” summarizes a Western negotiator.