The United Arab Emirates will host the annual climate summit COP28 from November 30th to December 12th (in principle, as the end of these conferences is always delayed). These are the keys to an event taking place in the city of Dubai, organized under the auspices of the United Nations, which will focus on fossil fuels. Because it is organized by one of the largest oil and gas producers and because it is expected that there will be a call to abandon this type of energy production.
1. What is a COP? The acronym COP in English refers to the Conference of the Parties. Namely the – usually annual – meeting of the almost 200 countries that are part of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The convention was adopted in 1992 and states that the greenhouse gases that humans emit in their daily activities are responsible for climate change. The convention also stipulated that signatories must reduce these gases. To develop this treaty, COPs will be held, attended by delegates and ministers from almost 200 countries around the world. The first COP took place in Berlin in 1995 and the one now starting in Dubai is number 28.
2. Why is the COP taking place in an oil country? All countries in the world are participating in the climate negotiations, from the largest to the smallest, even those whose economies depend on fossil fuels, as in the case of the Emirates (29% of their income is linked to oil and gas). Every year the summit takes place in one region of the world and in 2023 it will be Asia’s turn. The United Arab Emirates submitted a request and the countries in the region accepted it. Then the other nations involved in the climate negotiations also accepted it. Many environmental groups have also criticized the fact that the president of this summit – whose designation corresponds to the host country and is expected to be supported by nations at the opening of the summit – is Sultan al Jaber, who is not only Minister of Energy, but also an advisory delegate from ADNOC (Abu Dhabi National Oil Company), the eighth largest oil company in the world.
3. What is the Paris Agreement? The Framework Convention was used to adopt the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. In 2015, the Paris Agreement was adopted, which requires all countries that join the pact to reduce greenhouse gases. The sum of all these reductions must be sufficient to achieve the main goal: that the increase in the average temperature of the planet at the end of the century does not exceed two degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels and, as far as possible, does not exceed 1.5. This is the limit that science sets to avoid the most catastrophic effects of a situation that cannot currently be reversed. The planet is already warming by around 1.2 degrees.
4. Is the world on track to comply with the Paris Agreement? No. Scientific studies – led by the IPCC, the group of experts that advises the United Nations – and the various organizations affiliated with the United Nations warn that countries are not on track to achieve these Paris goals. Although progress has been made since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015, current plans result in a temperature increase of between 2.1 and 2.8 degrees as greenhouse gas savings are insufficient. The concentration of these gases in the atmosphere is increasing inexorably and will set another record in 2022. This has already caused damage that will be “irreversible” for “centuries or millennia,” leading to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, the IPCC found in its latest major report on climate science. This study warns that climate change poses “a threat to human well-being and the health of the planet” and that the “window of opportunity” humanity has to ensure “a habitable and sustainable future for all” is expanding. “quickly closes”. This means that with every year that passes without emissions falling rapidly, it becomes significantly more difficult to achieve the 1.5 degree target.
Information is the first remedy against climate change. Subscribe to it.
Subscribe to
5. What are NDCs? The Nationally Determined Contribution, better known in climate negotiations jargon under the abbreviation NDC, are the emission reduction plans to which the signatory states of the Paris Agreement have committed themselves. The current NDC proposes cuts by 2030 and these are inadequate (resulting in warming of between 2.1 and 2.8 degrees). The first official assessment of efforts since the entry into force of the Paris Agreement must take place at COP28. Knowing where the climate plans stand is intended, among other things, to prepare the next round of national plans. The new NDCs will be presented in 2025 and will extend to 2035. And what the most ambitious countries are seeking in the fight against climate change is that the balance sheet already sets out the measures that must be taken to keep warming in check. Security limits.
6. Why are fossil fuels in the spotlight? Coal, oil and gas are primarily responsible for climate change as they are the largest sources of greenhouse gases. For this reason, science concludes that the world must abandon these fuels. The most important alternative is renewable energy. And COP28 is expected to result in a mandate to triple the share of renewable energy globally, meaning rising from 3,400 gigawatts (GW) in 2022 to around 11,000 in 2030. But it is not enough to triple renewable energies. Efficiency rates need to be doubled (use less energy) and, above all, a clear path to phasing out all fossil fuels needs to be shown. A strong demand for this waiver, which could be included in the balance sheet, would be a signal to nations to later include this in their climate plans.
7. What is carbon capture and offset? For most experts, it is a residual solution that should only be used in processes (e.g. industrial) where there is almost no alternative to eliminating their emissions, mainly carbon dioxide. For the fossil fuel industry it is a back door through which it can continue to extract and sell coal, oil and gas. Capture and storage, an expensive and rarely used technology, captures and holds back a facility’s emissions so they don’t enter the atmosphere. In addition, there are emissions offsets, for example with forests. In both cases, the problem is not addressed at its root. When we talk about “unabated” fossil fuel elimination in climate jargon, we leave open the uncertain door to extraction and storage.
8. Who are the main emitters of greenhouse gases? According to official UN data, China was the top emitter in 2021, accounting for 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions. The USA (11%), India (7%), the EU (7%) and Russia (5%) follow far behind. However, when we consider historical responsibilities, things change somewhat. Taking all emissions accumulated between 1850 and 2021 as a reference, the USA ranks first with 17%. They are followed in this ranking by China (12%), the EU (10%), Russia (6%) and India (5%).
9. What else can you expect from the Dubai Summit? It is clear that responsibility for the climate crisis must lie with the G-20. Paradoxically, others are most affected. Many of the most vulnerable countries are precisely those least responsible for this crisis and least able to deal with its effects. At the last summit, held in the Egyptian city of Sharm, it was decided to set up a loss and damage fund to compensate the most vulnerable countries. And this fund should emerge from the Dubai summit, to which not only industrialized countries should contribute.
You can follow CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENT on Facebook and Xor sign up here to receive our weekly newsletter