Carlo Correa and Dansby Swanson are the last of this offseason’s “big four” shortstops, and while many Braves fans may be hoping for a Swanson reunion, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reports that Swanson and the Braves “have not engaged in legitimate negotiations since the offseason ended.” Atlanta’s most recent offer for Swanson was a six-year contract in the range of $16 million to $17 million a year, per Bowman, consistent with reports last month that the Braves had offered Swanson a deal near $100 million.
A deal of this magnitude always felt easy, even before the recent explosion of mega deals at the top end of the free agent market. Trevor story and Javier Baez Both signed six-year, $140 million deals last winter, and MLBTR predicted a $154 million guarantee for Swanson back on our top 50 free agent rankings. With Trea Turner Landing of 300 million dollars, Xander Bogaerts With $280 million and most of the top free agents getting more-than-expected warranties this winter, Swanson could top that number, too. Certainly, the reported $96 million to $102 million range that the Braves were last sitting in feels even less plausible now than it did a month ago.
While it’s obvious that the 11-year terms of both the Turner and Bogaerts deals were rooted in the Phillies and Padres’ desire to address some luxury tax concerns, there’s also little denying that the overall guarantee of each deal exceeded most expectations Has. Turner was credited with at least a shot at $300 million, but Bogaerts completely shattered even the most optimistic predictions by raking in that $280 million sum. Since Bogaerts ended up with a team that wasn’t even thought to be involved in the shortstop market, he reduced the supply of available shortstops without necessarily quelling demand (at least not in the same way he would have done). , if he had signed with the Giants, Twins or any other club active in that market).
As such, Swanson is now one of two remaining high-end shortstops in a market where at least three teams — not counting the incumbent Braves — are aggressively attempting to add a shortstop. Each of the Giants, Twins and Cubs are known to be active in the shortstop market and it stands to reason that others might be on the periphery.
For example, the Red Sox, who have just been spurned by Bogaerts, might not want to pay the price of Correa, but might see Swanson as someone they could lure in for a contract closer to what they reportedly offered Bogaerts (six years , $162 million). The Orioles have since at least estimated the asking price for the available shortstops, although it would still be a shock if Baltimore got serious about the Swanson bid. The Cardinals were interested in Swanson but are likely out after making their free-agent splash at the catcher position and signing instead Willson Contreras to a five-year contract.
Perhaps as notable as the lack of off-season communication is Bowman’s further account that Swanson was “disturbed by the lack of communication” and recently reached out directly to Braves baseball operations president Alex Anthopoulos. It’s hard to hear that and not think about the agency of Freddie Freeman final offseason, which apparently culminated in Freeman’s somewhat surprise departure from Atlanta and a six-year contract with the Dodgers.
Up to this point, there’s no indication that the Braves’ ongoing offer is their best and last offer. It’s possible Atlanta will correspondingly increase its offer to Swanson and his agents at Excel Sports Management (the same agency that represents Freeman) if Swanson comes to the Braves with serious offers from other suitors.
However, even before the offseason began, there were indications that Swanson’s retention was hardly a foregone conclusion. I broke down the Braves’ payroll and its proximity to the luxury tax months ago, and while both Braves CEO Terry McGuirk and Liberty Media CEO Greg Maffei have made optimistic comments that they’re ready to come up with a top-five payroll, has Neither indicated that the Braves are already pretty close to that level — especially considering their ongoing luxury tax book, which is currently the fifth-biggest in baseball. Since then, there have been indications that the Braves won’t be chasing the non-Swanson shortstops and that they may not have a huge appetite for paying a salary that “represents too high a percentage of their payroll” (as put by The Athletic reports in November).
As of today, the Braves are a little over $3 million short of Roster Resource’s predicted luxury threshold of $233 million. Signing Swanson would likely put her in the region of $20 million over tax and any additional acquisitions (or a potential Max Fried expansion) could push them well into the second stage and possibly to the abyss of the third stage. Moving to that third tier would see their pick drop 10 places in next year’s draft. Braves Brass has expressed its willingness to at least get into that first luxury class, but the fact that Atlanta has acquired cash to help cover Joe Jimenez‘s salary in their recent trade with the Tigers doesn’t necessarily indicate a team that will safely cross that threshold.
Until he signs elsewhere, Swanson still has a chance to stay with his hometown Braves. However, a months-long lack of negotiations, a standing bid likely well below his final price, and a market of at least two other motivated suitors cast great doubt as to whether Atlanta is the most likely landing spot for Swanson.