Even if that were avoided in 2022, a recession in Quebec and Canada remains likely in 2023, an economist estimates.
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In fact, Quebec’s real GDP — after changing course last quarter — experienced an unexpected surge on “an impressive recovery in household consumption spending and an acceleration in public sector investment,” said Hélène Bégin, senior economist at Desjardins.
However, she specified that Quebec will have a hard time “breaking out of recession this year” due to high interest rates that continue to weigh on households and businesses.
“Not surprisingly, the housing sector continues to fall as high interest rates continue to cool all segments of the market. The expected decline in business investment is well underway. The financial situation of indebted companies is deteriorating, which encourages them to be cautious,” said Ms. Bégin.
“Exports are beginning to feel the effects of the difficulties in the global economy,” she added.