It only took a single tweet over the weekend to create discord and disorder within the Israeli political establishment.
Shortly after midnight on Sunday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wrote that he had never been informed of warnings about Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel. Instead, Netanyahu appeared to shift blame for the attack, which killed at least 1,400 people, onto his army and intelligence chiefs. Before the attack, they had determined that Hamas was “deterred and ready to reach an agreement,” he noted.
The statement caused an uproar. Political leaders criticized Netanyahu for pursuing politics while the country was in the midst of a difficult military operation in the Gaza Strip. The outrage was so great that the Prime Minister deleted the tweet and apologized for his words in an unusually matter-of-fact tone. “I was wrong,” he said.
Experts say the incident confirmed a growing rift within the political and military establishment that has questioned Netanyahu’s leadership and his ability to steer the country through war without putting his own interests above national security.
“To say he was out of commission would be the understatement of the year,” said Yossi Mekelberg, associate fellow of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House.
“This is a very difficult military campaign. So they want a responsible prime minister, and there is not a single person [in the government] “Trusting Netanyahu – that is the main concern of this cabinet,” said Mekelberg.
Shortly after October 7, Netanyahu formed an emergency war cabinet by expanding Israel’s ruling coalition to include a number of former senior military officers from opposition ranks.
One of them was Benny Gantz, a former defense minister who quickly called on Netanyahu to resign from his controversial position while also showing full support for the army and the Shin Bet, Israel’s domestic intelligence agency.
A barrage of criticism from other leaders followed. “[Netanyahu] is not interested in security, he is not interested in hostages, only in politics,” said opposition lawmaker Avigdor Lieberman, once Netanyahu’s defense minister. Israeli army chief spokesman Daniel Hagari declined to comment. “We are at war,” he said.
Israeli soldiers prepare for ground maneuvers at an undisclosed location near the Gaza border [Hannibal Hanschke/EPA]The heated exchanges were the latest signs of tensions within Israel’s political establishment – including within the War Cabinet – as it grapples with the fallout from one of the country’s biggest intelligence failures.
Many in the country’s security apparatus have acknowledged shortcomings, but not Netanyahu. Before the stormy tweet, the Israeli leader held a news conference on Saturday where he dodged questions about whether he was responsible, saying everyone “must provide answers to difficult questions, including me” once the war is over.
“This is just the tip of the iceberg of what the Israeli establishment will be when the conflict is over,” said Alon Lien, former director of the Israeli Foreign Ministry. “He’s preparing the ground for his argument,” Lien said.
The ties between the prime minister and much of Israel’s public opinion have already been tested. The war followed a political crisis as an ultra-nationalist far-right government led by Netanyahu pushed for controversial reforms that limited the powers of the judiciary and were criticized by opponents as a threat to democracy. Tens of thousands of demonstrators have been taking to the streets for months and are resisting the judicial reform.
The opponents of the reform also included Wehrmacht reservists who threatened to refuse voluntary service. Some critics argue that the scale of the protests has affected the military’s readiness and effectiveness.
Since October 7, thousands of reservists have taken up arms to join the fight against Hamas – the country’s biggest military challenge since the war against Egypt and Syria in October 1973.
On Monday, the Israeli army said troops and armored vehicles would advance deeper into the Gaza Strip as part of the “second phase of the war.” It comes after more than three weeks of relentless bombardment of the besieged enclave that has killed more than 8,000 Palestinians and sparked a humanitarian disaster.
Mass graves in Deir el-Balah at Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital [Ashraf Amra/Al Jazeera]But analysts say unity within Israel against Hamas does not necessarily extend to support for the Netanyahu government itself.
“This government had already lost the trust of a significant part of society before October 7 and has not particularly expanded its public support base since then,” said Mouin Rabbani, co-editor of Jadaliyya and non-resident fellow of the journal Center for Conflict and Humanitarian Studies.
Trust in the government has fallen to its lowest level in 20 years, according to a survey by the Israeli Democracy Institute released last week. 20 percent of Israelis said they trust Netanyahu’s cabinet – eight percentage points less than in June.
Nevertheless, Netanyahu is known for his political survival skills. Israel’s longest-serving prime minister first took office in 1996 and has been in power for 13 of the last 14 years.
“There is widespread opposition to him and his government’s behavior, but that should not blind us to the fact that he also has a large reservoir of public support,” Rabbani said.
Even if the war cabinet is divided, expanding the government to include senior military officials – as Netanyahu did – could still serve his political interests, he added.
This is a move that may not only be aimed at broadening his political base, Rabbani said, but could also help him more effectively shift responsibility for possible military failures after the war to security authorities.