North Korea and the Gamble of War

North Korea and the Gamble of War

North Korea arms Russia, the Houthis, Hezbollah and Hamas. She probably advised Hamas on the construction of its underground passages. But there are worse things. Kim Jong-un is showing increasingly clear signs of war madness. Kim's bellicose rhetoric and, above all, the extremely fragile state of international relations increase the possibility of a North Korean attack on South Korea. However, the Chinese government has warned that it will not support North Korea if it attacks first. But circumstances are changing and the Chinese government has lost a lot of credibility under Xi Jinping. The hypothesis that North Korea is attacking its southern neighbor now seems plausible.

• Also read: Is Kim Jong-un preparing for war? Five things you should know

• Also read: North Korea says it has tested “undersea nuclear weapons system.”

1) Why did Kim create a nuclear arsenal?

Kim developed his nuclear weapons program for three reasons. First, he needed the military's support to stay in power. The success of the nuclear program allowed him to establish his authority over the army. Second, nuclear weapons have protected North Korean territory. Now any enemy that attacks North Korea would risk serious harm itself. Third, the nuclear threat from North Korea is encouraging several countries in the region to develop their own nuclear weapons and stop relying on the American nuclear umbrella if necessary, which pleases China.

2) Why are North Korean weapons increasingly concerning?

North Korea is not content with developing a nuclear deterrent arsenal along the lines of India or Pakistan. It is also trying to create the most efficient rockets. In recent days it announced that it had succeeded in developing a nuclear torpedo. North Korean technology is probably less advanced than the country's leadership would like to admit. But this accelerated modernization of Korea's weapons, which goes far beyond defense needs, suggests that the country is rapidly developing its offensive capabilities.

  • Listen to international political expert Loïc Tassé on Benoit Dutrizac's show QUB :

3) How is the current situation similar to that of 1950?

The Korean War of 1950 was initiated by North Korea. Stalin saw it as a kind of test of Americans' willingness to defend their allies in the region and an excellent way to distance Beijing from Washington. In some respects, the current circumstances are similar to those of 1950. On the other hand, China, South Korea and Japan are much more militarily powerful than they were then, while Russia and the United States are relatively less powerful than before.

4) What would a peaceful ruler have done?

To confirm his intentions, Kim should have focused the bulk of his policy on improving the general welfare of his population once his key nuclear weapons goals were achieved. On the contrary, he announced an increase in military efforts and described South Korea as the main enemy. A South Korea that has absolutely no intention of invading its neighbor.

5) What is Kim's bet?

Kim obviously hopes that the international situation will soon become favorable for an attack on South Korea. The US, which has become isolationist with Donald Trump as president, a Europe busy defending itself against Putin's Russia, a Middle East destabilized by Iran, among others, and a Taiwan attacked by China, could all be the ones The opportunity that Kim offers is waiting for you.