North Korea Is Testing World Resolve By Sending Missiles Over Japan

SEOUL — North Korea’s recent missile launch over Japan represents a major escalation, returning Pyongyang to a provocation pattern it has not used in years and testing how much international resolve can be mustered to thwart it.

A particularly strong response came from Japan, where citizens in two northern prefectures and islands stretching south of Tokyo began Tuesday morning with emergency warnings about Pyongyang’s medium-range missile flying over their country. The incident is likely to spur Japan’s plans to increase military spending – a policy shift aimed primarily at deterring North Korea.

President Biden was scheduled to speak with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Tuesday to discuss a joint response. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, speaking in separate talks with his Japanese and South Korean counterparts, reaffirmed US commitments to both countries.

South Korea, whose new conservative leader Yoon Suk-yeol has taken a more confrontational stance toward North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s regime than his predecessor, ordered jet fighters to fire precision bombs hours after the last test. For the first time since June, North Korea did not respond to calls over the inter-Korean connection line, which normally runs twice a day, according to the South Korean Unification Ministry.

A picture of Kim Jong Un appeared on a screen in Tokyo on Tuesday during a broadcast covering North Korea’s recent missile launch.

Photo: Richard A. Bäche/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

The Kim regime appears to be back on a provocation course similar to that of 2016 and 2017, when a series of major weapons tests – including the firing of missiles over Japan – eventually drew the wrath of its allies in Beijing and Moscow. Pyongyang has not met much opposition so far, despite unleashing nearly two dozen ballistic missile launches in 2022, the most it has staged in a single year.

Launching ballistic missiles violates United Nations Security Council resolutions. But US-led efforts to impose additional penalties on the rogue nation have been blocked by Russia and China, who advocate easing sanctions.

“There is no question that Kim Jong Un is trying to create the same tension as in 2017,” said Jean H. Lee, senior fellow of the Korea program at the Wilson Center, a nonpartisan think tank in Washington. “The tension gives him the excuse to keep testing.”

In the coming weeks, North Korea could conduct its first nuclear test in five years, South Korea’s intelligence agency said last week. Geopolitical dynamics have shifted since Pyongyang’s last test, with Moscow and Beijing locked in a deepening confrontation with the West. North Korea has made rapprochements with Russia this year, publicly backing the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine. While Beijing has called for a ceasefire and negotiations, China has provided economic support to Russia during the war. Separately, Chinese leader Xi Jinping exchanged letters with Mr Kim in September pledging to further strengthen ties.

In March, Pyongyang’s first ICBM test in more than four years – once seen as a step too far for Beijing and Moscow – ended without major warning.

Tuesday morning’s missile test was the first to fly over Japan in five years. It stopped trains, disrupted airports, and scared citizens on their way to offices and schools. Tokyo officials called the launch an imminent threat to the region.

The missile test halted trains in Japan as officials described the launch as a threat to the region.

Photo: KYODO/via Portal

The North Korean test could give a boost to proposals by Mr Kishida’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party to boost Japan’s defense budget, which has long stood at around 1% of GDP, to around 2% of GDP within five years. Mr. Kishida has promised to greatly increase Japan’s spending on missiles and other weapons to deter China and North Korea. On Friday, a Japanese government panel began discussions on how to fund a larger defense budget.

North Korea has not publicly signaled that it wants a speedy return to formal talks with the US after a three-year hiatus. The Kim regime has rejected numerous offers from the Biden administration to meet without preconditions, including not being contacted until July.

North Korea is likely waiting for the US to take a first step by expressing firmer commitments to lifting sanctions before deciding on renewed engagement, or even the prospect of a summit with Mr Biden, security experts say . But that moment has not yet come as the US focuses on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, rising Chinese aggression and a packed domestic political agenda ahead of November’s midterm elections.

“Given the Kim regime’s recent rhetoric, I don’t see a quick return to diplomacy,” said Lee Yong-joon, a former South Korean nuclear envoy who has participated in negotiations with North Korea.

By effectively putting the North Koreans on hold, the US may be attempting to convey to Mr Kim that the terms of the engagement are consistent with Washington, and not the other way around, said Soo Kim, a North Korea expert at Rand Corp., a political think tank. However, it’s unclear if that was tactical downplay, she added.

“The level of US involvement on this issue is a key element in changing the rhythm of policy responses to the North Korean threat,” Ms. Kim said.

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol ordered jet fighters to fire precision bombs after North Korea’s test.

Photo: Associated Press

The latest North Korean tests coincided with Vice President Kamala Harris’ visit to the region and trilateral maritime exercises between Washington, Seoul and Tokyo last week. On Saturday, the South Korean military displayed weapons designed to counter the nuclear threat posed by Pyongyang.

Early details of Tuesday’s launch suggest it may be the Hwasong-12 medium-range missile unveiled in 2017 as part of what North Korea has described as its plan to attack US military bases.

“Unlike short-range missiles, which mostly target South Korea, an intermediate-range missile immediately attracts international attention by directly threatening Japan and US military bases,” said Cheon Seong-whun, a former South Korean National Security Council official.

—Alastair Gale in Tokyo contributed to this article.

Write to Dasl Yoon at [email protected] and to Timothy W. Martin at [email protected]