The North Korean munitions, which Washington suspects Pyongyang intends to supply to Moscow, would help support the Russian army in its war effort in Ukraine, although there is no clear strategic connection between the two countries yet.
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Diplomatically isolated, Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted his North Korean counterpart Kim Jong Un with great fanfare on Tuesday and Wednesday, a meeting the U.S. believes is likely to lead to an arms sales deal.
Russia has been fighting since February 2022 and plans to produce 2.5 million artillery shells this year, compared to 1.7 million last year.
But “it is possible that the increase in Russian production capacities falls short of the actual needs on the battlefield,” where, according to Kiev, the Russian army uses between 40,000 and 60,000 artillery shells per day, points out Yohann Michel, an analyst at the International Institute for Castratrice Étudies (MISS ), to AFP.
“Moscow needs imports to maintain the current intensity of its war effort in the long term,” the German Council on Foreign Relations added in a study published on Friday.
In fact, having turned to Iran to provide it with hundreds of explosive (or suicide) drones, Russia could find useful resources in Pyongyang, which has significant stocks of Soviet equipment – of high quality but very unsafe – and mass-produces conventional weapons.
At the beginning of 2023, Washington had already accused Pyongyang of supplying artillery shells to Moscow in order to arm the Wagner paramilitary group then stationed in Bakhmout.
“The North Koreans have numerous artillery elements. “This is the backbone of the strategy against South Korea and against the American army,” Maciej Szopa, military analyst for Polish media Defense 24, told AFP.
“Balance of interests”
Ammunition in the North Korean arsenal that could be of interest to Russia includes 122 mm caliber rockets intended for the Soviet-era BM-21 “Grad” multiple rocket launchers used to equip Russian forces in Ukraine.
Pyongyang also has hand-towed 152mm D-20 artillery pieces, also made in the Soviet Union in the 1950s, and 122mm D-30 howitzers from the 1960s.
In return, Pyongyang could be supplied with Russian oil and food and even gain access to space technologies.
On Wednesday, Vladimir Putin raised the possibility of helping Kim build satellites, while Pyongyang recently failed twice to put a military spy satellite into orbit.
But for now, Vladimir Putin is avoiding a formal agreement with Pyongyang, saying only that he sees “perspectives” for bilateral military cooperation.
North Korea, which is very isolated due to its nuclear and ballistics programs, could benefit greatly from this.
But “we have to remain careful,” says Yohann Michel. “I think there might be interest in Russia. “It remains to be seen whether there is interest in North Korea and whether the return is acceptable to the Russians,” he adds, pointing to open questions about the “balancing of interests of both countries.”
According to the unanimous opinion of experts, North Korean weapons would allow Russia to supplement its stocks, but would not give it a decisive advantage in the Ukrainian theater of war. And military cooperation with this country under UN sanctions could cost Vladimir Putin dearly on the international diplomatic stage.
According to analysts, the appearance with Kim Jong Un could be more of a strategic signal for the attention of the Western camp.
“Moscow is interested in rapprochement with Pyongyang, not necessarily in buying weapons,” warns Antoine Bondaz, an expert at the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS), on the social network X – formerly Twitter.
“On the Russian side, this communication strategy aims to put pressure on Seoul,” which “indirectly supplies weapons to Ukraine through Poland” and is NATO’s third-largest arms supplier, he argues in the French daily Le Monde.