This administration appears to want to increase the share of gas installations, which will result in higher bills for consumers and more pollution for Ontario, Green Party leader Mike Schreiner said.
Interim leader of the New Democratic Party, Peter Tabuns, has accused the Tories of creating shortages by shutting down green energy projects and environmental programs.
“Part of solving the problem Doug Ford created is to import even more green, renewable, and low-cost hydropower from Quebec. We should negotiate a much stronger deal with Quebec instead of abandoning it. »
– A quote from Peter Tabuns, interim leader of the NDP
Ontario Liberal Party energy critic Ted Hsu also accuses the government of ignoring climate change by favoring gas-fired power plants.
He believes Ontario would need stable prices to finance and build energy projects. It’s like needing a mortgage to buy a home and Premier Ford chose to risk an adjustable rate mortgage rather than set a fixed rate and reduce our risk.
Quebec Premier François Legault (left) with his Ontario counterpart, Doug Ford (right).
Photo: The Canadian Press/Chris Young
Focus on the competition
The long-term contract, which expires next year, aims to reduce Ontario’s GHG emissions by purchasing 2.3 TWh annually, or about 7% of Hydro-Québec’s average annual exports.
The deal also guarantees seasonal energy exchanges, as Quebec has an electricity surplus in the summer while its demand increases in the winter. As such, Ontario intends to exercise its sole and final option for a 500 MW block in the summer of 2026.
Ontario Secretary of Energy Todd Smith’s office believes it will save money by relying on a competitive procurement process instead. He adds that Quebec will run out of power by the middle or end of the decade anyway.
Exchanges between the two provinces continue in the electricity market and annual auctions. The decision is still a bit surprising because we’re still talking about a lot of energy, says researcher Éloïse Edom of the Trottier Institute of Polytechnique Montréal.
The deal was signed in 2015 under then-Quebec Premier Philippe Couillard and Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne.
Photo: The Canadian Press
Which disappoints François Legault, who has tried many times to persuade Doug Ford to buy more hydroelectric power from Quebec. However, his office and the Quebec Department of Energy did not respond to our request for comment.
For its part, Hydro-Québec will not comment on IESO’s intentions regarding the agreement, which expires next year, its spokeswoman Lynn St-Laurent said. The situation comes as the state-owned company continues its legal battle over its proposed export to Massachusetts.
No green choice
Still, Ontario is on the brink of going without electricity, due in part to the redevelopment of the Bruce and Darlington nuclear power plants.
Windsor has already lost a $2.5 billion plant due to a lack of supply in the region. And by 2025, Toronto will run out of power to electrify its transportation, according to the latest estimates from the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO), the Ontario equivalent of Hydro-Quebec.
The Ford government recently announced that it hopes to extend the life of the Pickering plant. It is also evaluating the possibility of increasing the hydroelectric power production capacity of its existing dams.
Pickering Generating Station, a suburb of Toronto
Photo: The Canadian Press/Frank Gunn
For now, the province is banking on its natural gas power plants, which won recent IESO tenders, with contracts running until 2026. Last Friday, the province announced plans to procure an additional 1,500 MW by 2027.
expectations of the minister [de l’Énergie de l’Ontario]The rise in natural gas prices may be temporary and ebbing, believes energy economist Jean-Thomas Bernard.
With that in mind, he probably doesn’t want to sign a long-term contract. [avec Hydro-Québec] and prefers to buy electricity by the day and by tender.
Ontario, which is already almost at the bottom of the country in this area, is therefore being asked to increase its GHG emissions for the sector, at least in the medium term. Last year, IESO (New Window) assessed that imposing a moratorium on natural gas before 2030 would be very difficult. It is due to produce a final report on the matter for Energy Secretary Todd Smith by the end of November 2020.
When you factor in Canada’s carbon-neutral goal, it doesn’t add up, says Edom, co-author of a strategic outlook report for Canada’s electricity sector published in August.
Ontario, she continues, could buy more hydropower by increasing its transmission capacity with Quebec. An expensive choice, but much less so than in export projects like the one between Quebec and Massachusetts, because it would suffice to use the routes of the existing lines.
Éloïse Edom is a Research Associate at the Trottier Energy Institute at Polytechnique Montréal.
Photo: Radio Canada / Jessica Rubinger
According to the researcher, studies show that the most cost-effective solution for decarbonizing electricity would be to connect all the grids of the provinces in central and eastern Canada and the northeastern states of the United States.
The brake, she says, is political. Provinces and states tend to strive for autonomy. We produce at home and we consume at home, even if this is far from the best scenario.
What impact on Hydro-Québec?
Last year, Hydro-Québec exported 35.6 TWh to neighboring markets, of which 20% (7.7 TWh) was bought by Ontario, a higher volume than usual.
In recent years, Ontario has procured an average of 5.1 TWh. Almost half of this volume (2.3 TWh) comes from the agreement. The remainder came mainly from the wholesale electricity market.
Jean-Thomas Bernard believes that the end of the Ontario agreement should not have a major impact on Hydro-Québec’s finances. 2.3 TWh falls within the fluctuations of recent annual export volumes.
In the end, he says, there’s nothing stopping Ontario from buying more or less Quebec hydropower in the future, but there won’t be a firm commitment anymore.