Apr 4 – Drastic cuts in fossil fuel use. Grow forests and eat less meat. These are just some of the actions needed this decade to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures, according to a key report by the UN climate science agency on Monday.
Despite warnings about climate change issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) since 1990, global emissions have continued to rise over the past decade, reaching their highest levels in history. Continue reading
The result: global emissions are on track to exceed the 1.5°C warming limit envisaged in the 2015 Paris Agreement and reach around 3.2°C by the end of the century.
“We left COP26 in Glasgow with a naïve optimism based on new promises and commitments,” said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres when the report was released. “But current climate pledges would (still) mean a 14% increase in emissions. And most major issuers are not taking the necessary steps to deliver on even these underwhelming promises.”
At this point, only drastic emissions cuts this decade in everything from agriculture and transport to energy and buildings can turn things around, the report says. Even then, governments would also need to step up efforts to plant more trees and develop technologies that could remove some of the carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere after more than a century of industrial activity. Continue reading
“It’s now or never,” said Jim Skea, co-chair of the IPCC report, in a statement accompanying the report — the latest in a three-part series by the IPCC, with the next review cycle expected for at least another five years.
drama and delay
While other more recent IPCC reports have looked at the latest science on climate change, as well as ways for the world to adapt to a warmer world, Monday’s report looked at ways to curb emissions – making it one of the pack’s more controversial reports power for governments.
Some scientists described the process as “agonizing” and the IPCC was forced to delay the release of the report by six hours on Monday.
The final approval of the report’s key summary for policymakers – which must be endorsed by all countries – followed a marathon weekend of overtime, with government officials squabbling over the wording.
“Different countries have different interests,” IPCC co-author and climate scientist Jan Minx. “Everyone wants to make sure their concerns are addressed… but the scientists have the final say.”
Following the release of the report, EU climate chief Frans Timmermans urged European leaders to redouble their efforts to end dependence on Russian coal, gas and oil.
“The war in Ukraine has only increased our sense of urgency because now I don’t think anyone can find an excuse not to speed up the end to the overuse of fossil fuels,” Timmermans told the European Parliament. “We cannot continue to import large quantities of fossil fuels.”
REDUCE DEMAND
While previous IPCC carbon mitigation reports have tended to focus on the promise of sustainable fuel alternatives such as solar and wind power, the new report uniquely underscores the need to curb consumer demand.
“Most people assumed that demand reduction could be achieved through efficiency gains,” said economic anthropologist Jason Hickel of the London School of Economics. “But the evidence we have now suggests that in and of itself will not be enough.”
Without shrinking energy demand, the report says, it is almost impossible to rapidly reduce emissions to keep warming below 1.5 degrees C by the end of this decade.
“Accepting a less consuming lifestyle is almost the only fast-acting policy step we have left to prevent the catastrophic effects of climate change,” said Daniel Quiggin, environmental researcher at Britain’s Chatham House policy institute.
This “demand-side mitigation,” as the report puts it, puts the onus on governments to adopt policies that incentivize sustainable choices. An example would be investing in bike lanes and public transport while blocking cars from inner cities to influence public voting.
Such measures could slow economic growth by a few percentage points in the short term, the report said, but these losses would be outweighed by the economic benefits of preventing extreme climate change.
A decade ago, reducing demand “wasn’t politically palatable,” Quiggin said. “But now, with the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine crisis, we are seeing … the beginning of political will. When people truly appreciate the magnitude of a crisis and the problems it can cause, they are willing to reduce consumption. “
Reporting by Gloria Dickie; Additional reporting by Kate Abnett; Edited by Katy Daigle and Lisa Shumaker