NUCLEAR WAR. After twice using the nuclear threat, Russia attacks the Zaporozhye power plant, is this another way to start a nuclear war? Could the conflict in Ukraine provoke World War III?
Summary
[Mis à jour le 4 mars à 16h52] If Vladimir Putin “alone and deliberately” “chose the war,” according to Emmanuel Macron’s declarations, on March 2, 2022, of course, the war risks spreading to Europe. Ukraine and Russia remain the only warring parties in this conflict, and neither the European Union nor the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) intends to intervene militarily, at least directly. These reports reduce the chances of a new world conflict, but not everything depends on these organizations, we can even say that the reversal of the war in Ukraine depends primarily on the decisions of the Kremlin master. He is the one who makes the nuclear threat loom over Ukraine – and therefore Europe – with the warning of “Russian deterrents” on February 27, 2022. In Moscow, however, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the opposite in a press conference on Thursday, March 3: “World War III can only be nuclear, but I draw attention to the fact that it is in the spirit of Western policy, not that of the Russians.”
Several arguments suggest that the hypothesis of a nuclear attack serves more as a deterrent than a real threat. But the nuclear risk is no longer just from the launch of an atomic bomb, it could also be caused by the attack on a nuclear power plant, and events this Friday, March 4, at the Zaporozhye nuclear complex in Ukraine are worrying. Russian rocket fire fell on the administrative part of the largest power plant in Europe, but fortunately did not hit the reactor, the fact remains that the nuclear explosion did not go far. Has Moscow voluntarily launched an attack so close to the nuclear reactors? Was it a deterrent, or does it reflect the Kremlin’s ability to strike hard with nuclear energy without firing a warhead? Until then, the Atlantic Alliance had minimized the risks of a nuclear offensive described as “useless and dangerous provocative rhetoric” by US President Joe Bidan, or a “useless and disproportionate” threat from French Army spokesman Hervé Granjean. Will these new elements change the situation and make the possibility of a generalized war serious?
Is the risk of a nuclear attack in Europe real?
The nuclear threat rose sharply on Sunday (February 27th) with the Kremlin master’s announcement that “deterrence forces” had been put on alert. However, this panel of military measures includes levers other than a nuclear attack, and after Vladimir Putin’s speech, the United States has ensured that it has not found any suspicious or “specific” movement in preparation for such an offensive. Physically, Russia is able to arm nuclear missiles with more than 6,000 warheads at its disposal and a significant arsenal of bombers, submarines and surface ships, but again satellite images do not show strategic movements. The war in Ukraine is concentrating most of Russia’s military operations, but Moscow has already sent several air strikes on the Eastern European country, and the Kremlin has missiles that can be loaded with nuclear warheads, so the risk is still there.
Russia’s ability to launch a nuclear offensive does not mean that it intends to cross the red line. Experts say the threat serves more as an argument to establish political blackmail, to impose a dominant position in the conflict against Ukraine, especially before the opening of talks on Monday (February 28th), and to dissuade the West from interfering in Russia’s politics. – Ukrainian relations. Therefore, Vladimir Putin would indirectly turn to Europe and the United States to warn them “that in the event of military intervention in the conflict with Ukraine, he retains the possibility of using nuclear weapons,” according to Rafael Los, a specialist in nuclear doctrine. at the European Council on Foreign Relations interviewed by France 24.
Is Russia interested in launching a nuclear attack?
If the material threat is real, from a strategic point of view, a nuclear offensive would do Russia a disservice in several ways. The massive military operation and the siege of Kyiv reflect the Kremlin’s goal of seizing power from the Ukrainian capital to bring the country under its palette, with the Russian government pushing home its desire to “keep the peace” and “liberate” Ukrainians from Nazi rule. Carrying out a nuclear offensive against Ukraine would mean destroying the country and would be an action contrary to Putin’s project, especially since the Russian leader is not highly respected in the opinion of the Ukrainian people. A country deprived of this strike force is not allowed by a document signed by the Kremlin in October 2020, which limits Moscow’s nuclear power to four cases requiring an effective nuclear weapon threat against Russia. from Ukraine, neither from Europe, nor from the United States, the latter two guaranteeing that they did not want to go to war with Vladimir Putin.
In addition to its military interests in Kyiv, Moscow must deal with other nuclear forces, which, if left in the background at the front, have taken a stand in Ukraine’s favor and provided financial and material support. If Vladimir Putin chooses to launch a nuclear offensive, he is posing as an aggressor and exposing himself to an economic, military response from the West, even a nuclear one if his attack is on Europe, and forcing Russia to isolate itself internationally.
Is Europe at war with Russia?
“We are not at war with Russia,” Emmanuel Macron said in a speech on March 2, 2022, on behalf of France and Europe in general. No Western power plans to take a direct part in the conflict in Ukraine, but all are in favor of Kyiv and are organizing to provide financial assistance to the country, as well as logistical and military support. The European Union has thus released 1.2 billion euros to support the Ukrainian economy, but also intends, and this is a historic decision, to finance the delivery of military artillery, including lethal weapons, to Ukraine up to 450 million euros. These reports of 28 February prove that the EU is not neutral and even plays an indirect role in this war. France, for its part, has sent troops to NATO bases neighboring Ukraine, such as Romania.
Europe justifies this assistance with the necessary support to be given to Ukraine, which has suffered in the face of Russia’s armada, and insists that these actions not be taken against the Kremlin. Otherwise, Moscow, accustomed to rewriting history to its advantage since the invasion of Ukraine, could use this argument to launch offensives against Europe.
Can an attack on a nuclear power plant signal the start of a nuclear war?
Until now, the hypothesis of nuclear war has only been foreseen by a nuclear bomb attack. But Russia’s offensive against Ukraine’s Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, Europe’s largest, on Friday, March 4, 2022, puts the prospects in perspective. If the nuclear complex is hit and detonated, it will be “ten times worse than Chernobyl,” according to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on Twitter. The consequences of an explosion at a nuclear power plant could spread far beyond Ukraine’s borders and lead to international sanctions against Russia or the country responsible for the attack. However, is it possible that Vladimir Putin will take the risk of exposing his own country, Ukraine’s neighbor, to radioactive risks? The strike against Zaporozhye could, like Moscow’s verbal threats, serve as a deterrent. The International Atomic Energy Alliance (IAEA) ruled shortly after the demolition of part of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant and called for “an end to the use of force and a warning of serious danger if the reactors are affected.”
Can the war in Ukraine provoke World War III?
After the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Russia and Ukraine were the only warring countries involved in the battle. The United States and Europe have repeatedly said they do not want to take part in the military escalation and do not want to fight the Kremlin. However, the origin of the conflict is the desire of Ukraine, a former Soviet country, to move closer to NATO and the European Union, two organizations representing the Western bloc. The war in Ukraine crystallized the Cold War rivalry, which returned to the front of the stage. Vladimir Putin believes that the rapprochement of NATO and the EU in Ukraine is aggression and a threat against Russia, a speech that confirms the return of this West / East confrontation.
However, NATO and the EU have never expressed a desire to join Ukraine’s demands and integrate the country into its membership. Kyiv itself is defending the idea and is taking advantage of Russia’s attack on it to urge Europe to reconsider its assessment. Vladimir Zelensky, President of Ukraine, signed Ukraine’s application for EU integration on Monday, 28 February 2022, and delivered a moving speech to the European Parliament the following day: “Europe will be much stronger with Ukraine in it (.. .) Without you, Ukraine will be alone. We have proved our strength, we have shown that we are equal to you (…) So, prove that you are with us and that you will not let us down ”. Although the EU regularly renews its support for Ukraine, it is still not fulfilling its request. The 27 know that accepting Ukraine’s integration will allow Vladimir Putin to launch an offensive against Europe and possibly provoke a world war.