There has been fighting for months in Donetsk Oblast over the towns of Bakhmut and Soledar. Neither is considered decisive for the war, the strategic importance has already been questioned by the Russian side. However, Ukraine and Russia are fighting fiercely over the area, at a huge cost in blood.
On Wednesday, even Putin described the situation in the illegally annexed areas as “difficult”. “Fighting is ongoing in some areas,” Putin told a meeting with government officials. “But all this is not a reason to pause and postpone the most pressing issues.” Putin instructed the Russian cabinet to draw up a plan for the development of the Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the coming months – for example, with a view to infrastructure and social services.
Economist: Putin is running out of money
Russia still has enough resources to improve people’s lives in these regions, Putin said.
Additional income would allow Russia to complete all tasks. However, Sergej Gurijew, a Russian economist and political adviser, doubted this on Wednesday in an interview with Ö1.
Years of preparing for possible sanctions and deft policies by the Russian central bank prevented the economy from collapsing last year, according to Guriyev. But the sanctions are already taking effect. “When the West finally imposed the oil sanctions in December, we immediately saw a big effect on the national budget. In December alone, the deficit was four trillion rubles, equivalent to around 55 billion euros,” Guriev said.
Putin will slowly run out of money for his war, for his mercenary troops and Iranian drones. “My prognosis is that the war will continue, but with lower oil revenues, Putin can no longer maintain the intensity of the war.”
Conflicting information about Soledar
For now, however, the next Russian objective will likely be the capture of all eastern Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. In Donetsk, Wagner’s troupe mercenaries are highly active. Wagner’s boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin, recently reported the capture of the salt mining town of Soledar. A group of Ukrainian soldiers was still surrounded in the center of the village. The Kremlin did not officially confirm the entry, but spoke of “positive dynamics”.
Kyiv, for its part, has denied the loss of the city, saying it was a propaganda ploy, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his video address on Wednesday. “The front in the Donetsk region is holding,” he said. “The fight continues and we are doing everything we can to strengthen Ukraine’s defenses.” With claims of perceived successes, Russia tried to mislead its population and “support the mobilization”. In addition, “proponents of aggression” should be more hopeful.
AP/Libkos The city of Soledar is bitterly contested
Bachmut as the real goal
But the British Ministry of Defense had previously announced that the Russian army and Wagner Group mercenaries would likely have most of Soledar under control after the attacks of the last four days. The city with a population of 10,000 in the industrial region of Donbass is just a few kilometers from Bakhmut.
Russia’s attack on Soledar is likely an attempt to encircle Bakhmut from the north and cut off Ukrainian lines of communication, the UK MoD said at its daily intelligence briefing.
Huge tunnel system
The fighting in Soledar has focused on approaches to abandoned salt mines that run beneath the area and are said to total around 200 kilometers in length. “Both sides are probably concerned that they could be used to advance behind their lines,” he said.
It was precisely with this tunnel system that Wagner’s boss, Prigozhin, recently justified the offensive in the region that had been taking place since the beginning of August last year: “The icing on the cake is the mine system of Soledar and Bakhmut, which in truth is a network of underground cities,” wrote Prigozhin in Telegram.
Ukraine: Battle for Soledar
Russian mercenaries report taking the city of Soledar in eastern Ukraine. The infamous Wagner squad is currently on duty in Moscow in eastern Ukraine. However, Kyiv denies this and the Kremlin has yet to confirm the report.
“It can not only accommodate a large group of people at a depth of 80 to 100 meters, but tanks and armored vehicles can also move in it.” He also claimed that weapons had been stored in the tunnels since World War I. The view is rather dubious. The abandoned salt mine tunnels used to be a destination for excursions, and even concerts were held in an underground hall.
US officials said Prigozhin wanted to take control of the region’s salt and gypsum mines for commercial reasons. The Wagner group had already been accused of uniting military and economic interests in other regions, such as Africa.
Success is mostly symbolic
The Russian military leadership, in turn, could use a possible capture of Bakhmut as the first military success in a long time for propaganda. And it would be at least a small step towards bringing the entire Donetsk Oblast under Russian control. But there is still the conurbation between Slowjansk and Kramatorsk, which will certainly be defended even more stubbornly by the Ukrainian army.