The text mentions that Israeli forces must “create the appropriate conditions for the population of Gaza to emigrate to Egypt.”
Benjamin Netanyahu and the Gaza Strip after the Israeli attack
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247 An official Israeli government document reveals its intention to occupy all land in the Gaza Strip, a Palestinian stronghold that has been under intense attacks since October 7. The text states that “the IDF (Israeli Defense Forces) must create the appropriate conditions for the population of Gaza to emigrate to Egypt.” It is already known that Israel’s plan is to halt the immigration of 2.2 million Palestinians to force the Sinai Peninsula in Egypt. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah ElSisi has already rejected any attempt by Israel to “resolve the Palestinian cause at the expense of its neighbors.”
Read the full document translated from Hebrew into Portuguese by Stefano Dumontet:
October 13, 2023 A PLAN FOR THE PERMANENT RESETTLEMENT OF THE ENTIRE GAZA POPULATION IN EGYPT: ECONOMIC ASPECTS
There is currently a unique and rare opportunity to evacuate the entire Gaza Strip in coordination with the Egyptian government. This document presents a sustainable plan with high economic viability that is well aligned with the economic and geopolitical interests of the State of Israel, Egypt, the United States and Saudi Arabia. This is a summary of an immediate, realistic and sustainable plan for the humanitarian resettlement and rehabilitation of the Arab population of the Gaza Strip.
In 2017, it was reported that there are about 10 million empty housing units in Egypt, with about half built and half under construction. In Cairo’s two largest satellite cities, the “6. October” and “10. Ramadan, for example, there are a large number of builtup apartments that are vacant and owned by the government and private individuals, as well as enough building space for around 6 million residents. Most of the local population is unable to buy housing despite the very low price (only between $150 and $300 per square meter). Although the number of vacant homes will change over time, it must remain sufficient to be habitable by Gaza’s entire population.
The average cost of a 3bedroom apartment of 95 square meters for an average Gaza family of 5.14 people in one of the two cities mentioned above is around $19,000. Taking into account the currently known total population living in the Gaza Strip, which is approximately 1.4 to 2.2 million people, it can be estimated that the total amount that needs to be transferred to Egypt to finance these projects is in the order of 58 billion Dollar. The amount corresponds to a value between just 1% and 1.5% of the State of Israel’s GDP and can easily be financed by the State of Israel even without international aid.
CONTINUED AFTER RECOMMENDATIONS
As explained in the next paragraph, introducing an immediate stimulus of this magnitude to the Egyptian economy would represent an enormous and immediate benefit to the alSisi regime. These sums of money are minimal relative to the Israeli economy. If this helps to shift the problem to Egypt, it is also possible to double, triple and even quadruple it to solve the issue of the Gaza Strip, which for years has been an obstacle to peace, security and not only in the Gaza Strip Stability represents, but also around the world: investing a few million dollars (even if it is 20 or 30 million dollars) to solve this difficult problem is an innovative, economical and sustainable solution.
In this context, it is worth noting that the State of Israel has spent around 200 million shekels to combat the coronavirus epidemic in less than a year. There is no reason to believe that we would not be able to make an immediate payment of 20 to 30 million shekels, which is basically a kind of payment for the purchase of the Gaza Strip, to which we can still add a lot of value over time , although this is actually a very useful investment for the State of Israel.
Conditions in the Gaza area, similar to those in the Gush Dan area, will allow the construction of highquality housing for many Israeli citizens in the future, effectively extending the Gush Dan area to the border with Egypt. All of this will also give a huge boost to settlements in the Negev.
ECONOMIC CONTEXT EGYPT: On December 16, 2022, in view of the worsening of the current economic crisis (on January 1, 2023, inflation in Egypt rose to 26.5%), the International Monetary Fund approved a rescue loan of $3 billion for Egypt. Loan linked to draconian conditions and reforms in the Egyptian economy. Although the IMF has recommended adopting a floating exchange rate, this approach is expected to exacerbate inflation and even worsen cost of living problems.
Since 03/2022, the Egyptian pound has lost about half of its value (the official dollar exchange rate has increased by 95%, that is, from 15.7 to 30.7 pounds per dollar, much less than the parallel market rate), and this devaluation in The value of the currency has already hurt the Egyptian economy and significantly increased the cost of importing food into the country (around 70% of Egypt’s population lives on an income of a few dollars a day and survives by buying bread and staple foods subsidized by the Egyptian government). Government). Egypt’s private sector is struggling to recover, considering that its production has declined continuously for 26 consecutive months.
Given these data, the IMF’s recommendations are strongly contradicted and at the same time their implementation seems highly unlikely given the risk they pose to the stability of the alSisi regime. It appears that the Egyptian government intends to sell its shares in 35 stateowned companies to strategic investors by the end of 06/2024, with an amount of around $5 billion having been raised at the time of writing, plus another $5 billion additional be applied.
“If the Egyptian government manages to promote the issuance plan and secure additional financing from Gulf states or other partners, the Egyptian central bank will adopt a more flexible exchange rate policy,” economist Hani AbdulFathuh said on the Ahram Online program.
Egypt’s debt is equivalent to 6% of GDP for the fiscal year 20222023, with the debt ratio in these years estimated at 95.6%, with a GDP of 9.8 or about $318.23 billion. The value of Egypt’s net external deficit reached $26.34 billion in July 2023. (The value of the net deficit of foreign assets reflects the net value of foreign assets held by state banks minus their foreign liabilities.)
The alSisi regime is under intense pressure to pay off its debts amid low investor confidence. In addition, on May 10, 2023, the rating agency Moody’s downgraded Egypt’s credit rating from B3 to CAA1, meaning that the Egyptian government’s debt poses a “significant risk.” This is the lowest score ever awarded to Egypt.
China is the Egyptian government’s fourth largest creditor with a loan of $7.8 billion (as of June 2023). To meet its obligations, Egypt expects to receive a loan in the form of bonds worth around half a billion dollars, mostly made up of Chinese yuan. Most of the funding for the New Capital of Egypt project, which involves moving all government offices to a new city with advanced construction processes in the desert east of Cairo, which is vital to alSisi, comes from loans and commissions. An estimated $4 million, with high returns and huge reimbursements that Egypt is struggling to afford anyway. Therefore, China is also cautious about investing in Egypt given the financial challenges Egypt is facing. However, even if China decides to reduce its investments, it still wants the New Capital of Egypt project and other projects to be completed.
China is currently focusing on relations with the Gulf states, while for Egypt, Egypt’s economic survival is an important issue. In a scenario where Egypt is heavily indebted to China, it will have significant and farreaching geopolitical consequences for the region. All of this worries the United States because if Egypt fails to fulfill its obligations to China and as a result China acquires strategic assets in Egypt, it would become a strategic disaster for the United States.
Egypt’s other creditors, such as Germany, France and Saudi Arabia, also do not want to see a total failure of the Egyptian economy and therefore also have an incentive to keep the Egyptian economy afloat, including through Israeli investments by rehabilitating the entire population of Gaza in existing housing in Egypt .
For European countries, and especially for the countries of Western Europe, the relocation of the entire population of Gaza to Egypt and their rehabilitation, thereby significantly reducing the risk of illegal immigration into their territory, represents a huge benefit. Saudi Arabia is also expected to benefit significantly benefit from this measure, since the evacuation of the Gaza Strip means the elimination of an important ally of Iran and a huge contribution to the stability of the region, thus providing the opportunity to promote peace with Israel without constant interference from local public opinion due to persistent and repeated clashes , which stir up hatred against Israel.
In addition, there are countries such as Saudi Arabia that, like the residents of Gaza, need qualified construction workers. Saudi Arabia is implementing major projects such as the city of the future “Naum”, and there could also be a clash of interests at this level. One can assume that some Gazans would jump at the chance to live in a rich, progressive country rather than continue to live in poverty under Hamas rule.
This agreement between Egypt and Israel comes just days after the flow of migrants from Gaza to Egypt began through the Rafah border crossing. Hundreds of thousands of Gazans already want to leave the Gaza Strip.
The IDF, in cooperation with Egypt, must create the right conditions across the border for the population of Gaza to migrate into Egypt. In addition, the solution to the Gaza issue will ensure a stable and increased supply of Israeli gas to Egypt and its liquefaction, as well as greater control by Egyptian companies over the existing gas reserves off the coast of Gaza in connection with the relocation of Gaza, depleted of its residents, to the state of Israel. The total population of Gaza, around 2 million inhabitants, represents less than 2% of the total Egyptian population, which already includes 9 million refugees. A drop in the ocean.