After the failure of the lightning offensive to overthrow the Ukrainian government, Russian forces have scaled back their ambitions and focused on conquering the Donbass region, where they are waging a war of attrition 100 days into the conflict.
Moscow’s steamroller tactic of gradually taking control of the Donbass seems to be paying off. Despite Ukrainian resistance, Russian forces now control part of the important city of Severodonetsk.
“The situation in Donbass remains very difficult,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy admitted on Monday.
Despite everything, “the steamroller is certainly moving forward, but in an arduous way it’s not military submission,” explains Mathieu Boulègue, an expert at the Chatham House think tank.
2 of 6 photomontage of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin — Photo: Sputnik/Kremlin/Reuters and Viacheslav Ratynsky/Reuters
Photomontage of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin — Photo: Sputnik/Kremlin/Reuters and Viacheslav Ratynsky/Reuters
“In the coming weeks Moscow will have to change militarily from a war of movement to a war of position. His material does not regenerate, his powers are exhausted,” predicts the analyst.
After taking over the strategic port of Mariupol in the southeast, which connects Russia to the Crimean peninsula, a military victory in Donbass would be great news for Vladimir Putin.
On February 24, the Russian President ordered the largest military offensive in Europe since the end of World War II. But the failed launch left Western countries stunned.
3 of 6 Russian soldiers in Mariupol, Ukraine on April 12, 2022 — Photo: Alexander NEMENOV / AFP
Russian soldiers in Mariupol, Ukraine, on April 12, 2022 — Photo: Alexander NEMENOV / AFP
Russian forces simultaneously opened three fronts: to the north towards the capital, Kyiv; in the east and south. The offensive in the neighboring country mobilized 160,000 soldiers.
This represents a balance of power slightly higher than one to one in relation to the Ukrainians. However, military doctrine preaches a three to one ratio for launching an attack.
Moscow began the “military special operation” without first gaining air supremacy and quickly showed its limitations against an agile Ukrainian defense trained by NATO instructors for years.
4 of 6 An elderly woman is evacuated from Irpin, a Russianbombed town on the outskirts of Kyiv Photo: Vadim Ghirda/AP
An elderly woman is evacuated from Irpin, a Russianbombed town on the outskirts of Kyiv (Photo: Vadim Ghirda/AP)
Ukrainian troops, underestimated by Russia and receiving antitank and antiaircraft weapons from the West, inflicted significant casualties on the Russians, who were forced to change their targets a month after the conflict began.
Russia then decided to turn its attention to the Donbass mine basin in eastern Ukraine. This represents a lower level of ambition, accompanied by efforts to address military shortcomings early in the conflict.
Kiev defenders train with newly delivered antitank weapons
“We saw how the Russians fixed some difficulties, especially logistically. Donbass is in the far east of the country, closer to Russia and its biosupply lines,” said Pentagon spokesman John Kirby.
At the tactical level, they are “deploying smaller units, making small movements” and “trying to establish better coordination between air and ground operations.”
Russian artillery began relentlessly bombarding Ukrainian positions in an attempt to weaken them and advance. “But the Ukrainians held on to the ground in the trenches,” emphasizes Mathieu Boulègue.
“After several surprising Ukrainian successes that actually exploited Russian failures, the Russians have regained the initiative. The battle for Donbass is far from over,” comments French military historian Michel Goya.
5 out of 6 regions of Donetsk and Luhansk recognized by Russia as independent — Photo: Arte/g1
Donetsk and Luhansk regions recognized as independent by Russia — Photo: Arte/g1
For the analyst, the Eastern Front is “turning into a decisive battle that will absorb the efforts of the coming weeks.”
For the Kremlin, “the goal is to reach the administrative borders of Donbass,” said General Cristophe Gomart, a former French special forces commander.
“From this moment, I think they will have an operational pause because there are two armies that have been fighting each other for three months and are exhausted. This is undoubtedly developing into a war of attrition,” he explained.
In almost 100 days, the conflict caused human and material losses.
6 of 6 A rocket is launched by Ukrainian troops near Luhansk in the Donbass region in April — Photo: Anatolii Stepanov/AFP
A rocket is launched by Ukrainian troops near Luhansk in the Donbass region in April (Photo: Anatolii Stepanov/AFP)
Western sources estimate that almost 15,000 Russian soldiers died, arguably fewer than on the Ukrainian side, for which there are no reliable estimates.
According to a tally by the blog Oryxspioenkop, based on images from the battlefields, the Russians lost 739 tanks, 428 armored vehicles, 813 infantry fighting vehicles, nearly 30 fighter jets, 43 helicopters, 75 drones and nine ships.
According to reports, the Ukrainians lost 185 tanks, 93 armored vehicles, 22 fighter jets, 11 helicopters and 18 ships.
In the Donbass, “Ukraine may lose ground in the short term, but Russia will have serious problems sustaining its military effort in the long term and preserving its territorial gains,” says military analyst Michael Kofman of the American think tank CNA, before considering that “the war is dragging on could”.
“This conflict will be a long war of attrition,” emphasizes Mark Cancian from the American research institute CSIS. “Neither party seems willing to compromise or reach an agreement. Until one side decides, we could see some kind of frozen lowintensity conflict.”