Two years after the start of a formal dialogue between the Venezuelan government and the opposition, many are wondering how long it will be before the process is declared a failure. But there is perhaps a more pressing question: How can this dialogue succeed if there is no clear plan to support the partial agreements that have already been reached?
Hopes for a negotiated solution in Venezuela were high when representatives of Nicolás Maduro’s government and the Venezuelan opposition met in Mexico City in August 2021. There they signed a comprehensive agreement to start negotiations which, according to the signatories, “can establish clear rules for political and social coexistence with absolute respect for the national constitution”. The process was designed to help the parties reach a series of “partial deals” that would kickstart a comprehensive deal to restore democracy in Venezuela.
After more than a year of behind-the-scenes dialogue, the parties achieved significant success on November 26, 2022. They arrived in Mexico City again and signed a partial agreement that would divert some resources frozen abroad by US sanctions to a fund that would be administered by the United Nations (UN). Those funds would go toward prioritizing health care, nutrition and restoring basic infrastructure, all urgent needs that are contributing to a migration crisis that has forced more than seven million Venezuelans to flee their country.
This deal was hailed as a “historic” milestone and attracted a lot of media attention at the time. And for a good reason. If implemented, this fund would provide a major boost to the humanitarian response to the crisis in Venezuela. The United Nations is calling for $720 million in aid in 2023, but only 18% (or $130 million) has been received so far, meaning millions of Venezuelans still need help.
But more than eight months later, this fund still does not exist. The humanitarian deal, originally envisioned as a “shorthand” in a series of growing deals that could culminate in a comprehensive deal before the 2024 presidential election, has stalled due to a combination of factors.
After signing the deal, it took the US government six months to reassure the United Nations that the fund could exist within the US financial system, thereby minimizing the risk that creditors could seize it with legal claims against US debt . The Venezuelan government. This was a major blow to the implementation of the agreement and raised doubts about its future. But in May 2023, US diplomats finally assured the United Nations that implementation of the agreement could move forward, eventually giving it the green light.
Since then, the main obstacle to implementation has been the internal UN bureaucracy. The organization is understandably concerned about the reputational risk of implementing an initiative that has drawn comparisons to Iraq’s controversial Oil-for-Food program, a program that has been plagued by mismanagement and corruption. However, the UN transparency standards have improved significantly in recent years.
Given these rigorous standards, and given the mutual interest in moving the UN framework forward, there is no excuse for delay. The postponement of the implementation of the humanitarian agreement only serves the interests of the Maduro government, which has used this delay to reinforce its narrative that sanctions, not years of mismanagement and corruption, are the sole cause of Venezuela’s economic collapse.
This is the key finding of our new report, published by the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Center for Latin America (AALAC). In it, we make five key recommendations to the US government and UN diplomats to advance the implementation of the humanitarian accord.
First, it is important to recognize that the fund does not have to exist for sanctioned funds to flow to United Nations humanitarian assistance. Financial institutions around the world hold large amounts of money in frozen assets that could be efficiently and safely transferred to United Nations agencies even before the fund is established. The United States can and must show they are ready by putting the ball in Maduro’s court.
There is also a need for clearer coordination with the multiple stakeholders involved, including Venezuelan political actors, countries where sanctioned funds are frozen, and associated financial institutions, so that there are clear expectations about how to proceed. Support for the agreement and details of its implementation must be clearly communicated.
In parallel, the United Nations should be encouraged to build on its successes in managing multi-donor trust funds (MDTFs) over the past thirty years. While the humanitarian agreement with Venezuela is not without risk, the United Nations has built the necessary systems to manage these funding mechanisms in a transparent and accountable manner.
The UN Multi-Partner Trust Fund Office currently manages nearly 100 pooled funding mechanisms, accounting for more than 95% of all funds channeled through UN-managed programs. This experience must be used to ensure that this historic opportunity is not missed.
In addition, the United States must ensure that legitimate legal claims by creditors do not impede aid to the Venezuelan people. Some creditors have already stated that they will not use the social fund, a positive gesture that should be welcomed. Ultimately, legitimate creditor claims must be considered, but separated from efforts to resolve the humanitarian crisis.
Finally, the US and its international allies must commit to a coordinated communications strategy. the meeting of July The meeting of EU and Latin American diplomats with Venezuelan negotiators in Brussels and the conference on Venezuela in Bogotá in April show that when the international community is on one side, it can send a strong signal in support of the negotiations.
The truth is that the dialog box can’t stay open forever. Maduro must understand that he faces significant costs if he leaves the table, and both the US and its allies must be ready to step up the pressure if necessary. But the ongoing negotiation efforts must be given every chance of success. Failure to implement this humanitarian agreement would not only mean less aid to the suffering people of Venezuela, but would also jeopardize the future of the dialogue process in Mexico City. In the interest of all those working for a peaceful and democratic solution in Venezuela, the fate of the humanitarian agreement must not be left up in the air.
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