Editor’s note: (Marja Heinonen, a Finnish author of several books, has more than three decades of experience as a journalist, editor and academic, and holds a PhD in communications. The views expressed here are her own. Read more Opinion on CNN.)
Tampere, Finland (CNN) When it comes to friendships between peoples, Sweden and my native country, Finland, don’t do much.
We’re not just neighbors; We share a centuries-old history. Parts of Finland were ruled by the Kingdom of Sweden for (sometimes awkwardly, to be honest) 500 years. And alongside Finnish, Swedish is one of two official languages in Finland. Most Finns learn to speak the language reasonably well.
In recent decades, our two countries have also been close military allies. In fact, Sweden is Finland’s closest defense partner. The two countries have been working together on defense since the 1990s. This close military cooperation is one of the reasons Helsinki and Stockholm chose to stay out when many other countries in Northern and Eastern Europe were rushing to join NATO. We felt that we had met our mutual defense needs against Russia.
Finland also has a robust military defense, which we developed out of necessity, living in the shadow of a powerful Russian neighbor with whom we went to war once before when it was still part of the Soviet Union. Up until a year ago, we Finns actually had the idea that our eastern neighbor had become a peace-loving trading partner and was no longer a threat to our national security.
Moscow’s brutal invasion of Ukraine changed all that. It quickly became clear that if Finland and Sweden want real security from possible Russian aggression, we are more likely to find it within the larger NATO military alliance than alone. Of particular importance to us was the protection afforded by Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, the collective defense doctrine, which states that an attack on one member is an attack on the entire alliance. It has been a cornerstone of the 30-strong NATO alliance since its inception in 1949 as a counterweight to the Soviet Union.
US President Joe Biden underscored the importance of the article during his meetings in Poland this week with leaders from the so-called Bucharest Nine countries – Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia – on the front lines of possible hostilities with Moscow.
“Article 5 is a sacred commitment made by the United States. We will defend literally every inch of NATO,” Biden told the group.
Finland and Sweden submitted applications for NATO membership last June, assuming we were on the way to joining. Our applications were submitted simultaneously to signal our unanimity in our assessment of the Russian threat. And if everything goes according to plan, our two nations will be full members of NATO within the next few months.
But things haven’t gone according to plan – in fact, the accession process has made some bumps along the way almost from the start.
Twenty-eight NATO member states accepted the applications almost immediately, but two objectors – Turkey and Hungary – thwarted the application process, which requires unanimity among all 30 current NATO member states.
Political observers in Hungary say Budapest is likely to cave in as the bid process progresses this spring. Hungarian lawmakers have scheduled a vote on Finland and Sweden’s NATO bids for early March, and officials have signaled they expect to approve both bids.
However, Turkey is a different matter. Ankara wants Finland and Sweden to crack down on those it calls terrorists inside their respective borders. Turkey’s anger is directed at members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, known by the acronym PKK, as well as some other political groups.
The PKK, which has accused Ankara of creating an independent state in Turkey, is waging an armed struggle against the government and has been classified as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the United States and the European Union.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has accused Sweden and Finland of being “like guest houses for terrorist organizations,” but he is particularly unhappy with Sweden. Ankara’s central demand is that the two countries extradite wanted people living on their territory.
The burning of a Koran by protesters during a demonstration outside the Turkish embassy in Stockholm last month was the last straw for Erdogan. Ankara has now signaled that it may be ready to accept Finland as a future NATO member, but has so far blocked membership for Sweden.
All of this raises a thorny question for Finns: are we parting ways with Stockholm here? When it comes to securing a coveted spot in the NATO military alliance, is every man – every nation – for himself?
In recent months, this uncomfortable possibility has been openly discussed in political and security circles, as well as among the average citizen of my country, numbering about 5.5 million people. Officials from both countries are carrying on, amid growing uncertainty over whether the two Nordic allies can move forward together.
Finland’s Prime Minister Sanna Marin said at a press conference in Stockholm this month that Helsinki would join NATO “hand in hand” with Sweden. However, there are different interpretations of “hand in hand”.
This week, Finland’s President Sauli Niinistö met the prime ministers of Sweden and Norway in Sweden and said at a subsequent press conference: “As far as it is up to us, we will go hand in hand. But Turkey has ratification in its own hands and there is nothing we can do about it.”
This seems to indicate that Finland is preparing for a scenario in which Turkey plans to ratify Finland first and postpone the question of Sweden joining NATO until another day.
Some Finns actually think it makes sense that we go first, given the more than 800 miles of border we share with Russia, which poses a greater security risk. Others believe that if Finland joins first and Sweden in a few months, it won’t make much of a difference in the end. But in a troubled world, both nations are eager to close the deal as soon as possible.
If Helsinki is looking for guidance from the Finnish people on whether to go ahead with or without Stockholm, then the government is out of luck: according to a recent poll, Finns are almost split down the middle on this issue.
A survey conducted this month by polling group Taloustutkimus found that a slim majority (53%) of Finns say they would be willing to join the alliance ahead of Sweden.
In the past few days, under pressure from the US and other NATO members, Ankara has signaled that it might back down. Earlier this month, a bipartisan group of 27 US senators said in a letter to US President Joe Biden that Ankara’s continued blocking of Sweden and Finland from joining NATO is hurting the entire alliance. Lawmakers asked Biden to delay the planned sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey until Sweden and Finland agree to join NATO.
These threats may have caused the tone of the debate to be toned down in recent days. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told Portal on Thursday he had seen progress in talks with Turkey over Sweden’s bid and still aims for both Sweden and Finland to join the alliance by the July summit in Vilnius, Lithuania.
The NATO leader added that Turkey, Finland and Sweden will hold a meeting at the alliance’s headquarters next month “to address the challenges” that have hampered Sweden’s bid for membership.
The NATO summit in July could also seal Sweden’s fate – and finally decide whether Helsinki will drop its old friend and advance alone into the military alliance.