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Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan enjoys his country’s role as a swing state in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, swinging not between one faction to another within the Western alliance, but between the alliance itself and its main opponent, Russia. Hence his bartering and gambling skills, aimed at strengthening his role as a power broker – and extracting concessions – even as he undermines his own NATO allies.
He has dashed analysts’ confident predictions that he would lift Ankara’s block on Sweden joining the alliance after Turkey’s presidential election, which he won in May, or certainly after the annual NATO summit in July at the latest. At this meeting he promised that Turkey would allow Sweden to join this year. Two days later he changed his mind and said that the Turkish parliament, where he holds power, would have to agree.
Mr. Erdogan’s obstructionism is contagious. It appears to have emboldened another NATO problem child, Hungary. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban had previously promised to support Sweden’s entry but threatened to obstruct it, angered by Stockholm’s criticism of his authoritarian approach.
As is often the case, given Mr. Erdogan’s transactional approach to international politics, a concession will have to be won before he agrees to open NATO’s doors to Sweden. He wants to complete a deal to acquire US-made F-16 fighter jets worth $20 billion, along with modernization kits for the country’s aging fleet.
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President Biden has supported the F-16 sale but made it clear to Mr. Erdogan that Congress must approve. And Mr. Biden’s influence in Congress is more limited than Mr. Erdogan’s in the Turkish parliament. Members of Congress, aware of Mr. Erdogan’s approach, want Turkey’s influence over Sweden’s NATO membership to be permanently removed before they agree to the full F-16 deal. Many of them are hesitant for good reason, as Turkey’s backsliding on democratic norms has accelerated. After meeting with Mr. Biden this month at the Group of 20 summit with major industrialized nations, Mr. Erdogan expressed, apparently without irony, his dismay that Mr. Biden tied the F-16 package to Sweden.
The standoff is a bouquet of flowers for Russian President Vladimir Putin, with whom Mr. Erdogan has said he has a “special relationship.” The Turkish leader would be well advised to reassess his interests – with his NATO allies, whose combined economic output is about ten times larger than Russia’s, or with the warmongers in the Kremlin, who are struggling to keep their economy going against the burden of the West to keep sanctions.
The Western alliance would be significantly strengthened by Sweden’s accession, and Stockholm is understandably frustrated by the delay. Shortly after Russian troops invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the country abandoned decades of formal neutrality and applied for NATO membership. Stockholm is aware of Mr. Erdogan’s stated objections to joining the alliance and has addressed Ankara’s concerns that the country has failed to act aggressively against Kurds living in Sweden, whom Turkey viewed as terrorists. To this end, it has extradited several Kurds at Turkey’s request and also changed its laws and constitution to allow for tougher treatment of suspected terrorists. Last year, Stockholm also lifted its arms embargo against Turkey.
Meanwhile, Sweden and NATO have tightened long-standing ties even without formal membership. And in preparation for accession, Sweden has significantly increased its military spending to meet NATO’s goal of spending 2 percent of annual gross domestic product on defense.
Mr. Erdogan runs the risk of overplaying his hand. In return for Sweden agreeing to NATO, he demanded progress toward Turkey’s accession to the European Union and pushed Stockholm to enact a formal ban on the burning of the Koran – an act of protest that has become increasingly common lately. The former is a non-starter; The latter is an affront to the Stockholm tradition of freedom of expression.
His and NATO’s best option is to move forward with the deal that Mr. Biden and key members of Congress have signaled they are willing to offer – the F-16 package once Turkey formalizes Sweden’s NATO membership ratified.
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Editorials represent the views of the Post as an institution, as determined through debates among editorial board members located in the Opinions section and separate from the newsroom.
Members of the Editorial Board and focus areas: Opinion Editor David Shipley; Deputy Opinions Editor Karen Tumulty; Associate Opinion Editor Stephen Stromberg (national policy and politics); Lee Hockstader (European Affairs, based in Paris); David E. Hoffman (Global Public Health); James Hohmann (domestic and electoral politics, including the White House, Congress and governors); Charles Lane (foreign policy, national security, international economics); Heather Long (economics); co-editor Ruth Marcus; Mili Mitra (Public Policy Solutions and Audience Development); Keith B. Richburg (Foreign Affairs); and Molly Roberts (Technology and Society).
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