On Tuesday, Oregon and Washington states won an injunction confirming their claim as sole governing members of the Pac-12. The schools are now hoping to be able to finalize their future appointment arrangements, possibly in the next few days.
There are several options on the table, but numerous questions about their feasibility still need to be answered. A meeting of Mountain West presidents is scheduled for Thursday.
According to three sources involved in the discussions, the most immediate possibility is for the two schools to remain Pac-12 members but form a football scheduling alliance with the Mountain West. The Beavers and Cougars would not be eligible for that conference’s championship, but would play most of their games against each other and various MWC schools for a year or two. While the schools would operate under the Pac-12 “umbrella,” they would not attempt to host a conference championship for themselves.
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A source involved in the talks said that “dialogue” between Pac-2 and the Mountain West has increased recently. The NCAA is giving FBS conferences a two-year grace period to return to the eight-school requirement.
Under the model being discussed, the schools’ other sports teams would compete as “affiliate members” in the MWC and other Division I conferences such as the Big West or the WCC. In those sports, they could participate in a full conference schedule and qualify for those leagues’ championships as well as receive automatic NCAA Tournament berths.
“Our desire is to play for championships,” a school source said. “Of course our focus is on the West, but some sports may have to play in a different conference.”
If the Mountain West alliance falls through, the schools would also have identified enough opponents to make their own football schedules for next year while placing their other sports in different conferences, two of the sources said.
But to compete across multiple conferences, the two schools would need other leagues willing to take over their non-football sports, and those other conferences would need an incentive to do so. Schools may also need an NCAA exemption for this.
An announcement could come by the end of this week, although a second source involved in the discussions said it could take until after Thanksgiving for details to be finalized. Oregon State AD Scott Barnes told Portland-based sportswriter John Canzano on Tuesday: “We’ll have all the information for them when (coach) Jonathan (Smith) has his 1-on-1 sessions with the players after regulation play.” has.” season. The football transfer portal opens on December 4th, but the women’s football portal has already opened and the men’s football portal opens on November 20th.
Oregon State and Washington State would “keep the Pac-12 open” as a unit to protect the league’s intellectual property and, most importantly, its assets. In addition to media rights and other revenue from last year as a 12-school league, the two expect future revenue streams such as the league’s already earned NCAA Tournament units (an estimated $60 million) and the remaining two years of their Rose Bowl contract (approximately $80 million) and two more years of CFP distributions (each Power 5 league received $79 million last year, although it has not yet been decided whether a two-team Pac-12 would receive the same amount).
“The (Pac-12) grades on our field wouldn’t change at all,” a second school source said.
But these discussions are a two-way street. The Mountain West and/or other conferences would have to get something out of the partnership. A few additional football games and a little more inventory in other sports probably won’t be enough to meaningfully increase television revenue. The league doesn’t want to simply give Oregon State and Washington State a part-time home just so they can invade the MWC in a few years. Some kind of longer-term commitment would be desirable. Yahoo Sports reported earlier this week that the Sun Belt had accepted the Pac-2 planning alliance proposal because it saw no benefit in it.
According to a league source, the MWC has no rights granting policy and expects its exit fee statute to be in effect in perpetuity. That means it would cost at least $17 million for a member to leave with more than one year’s notice, or at least $35 million to leave with less than one year’s notice, regardless of status of the TV contract, which runs until 2025-2026.
The possibility of Oregon State and Washington State using their Pac-12 funds to pay these exit fees has been discussed informally, but it is not clear how desirable that option is nor exactly when the schools will have full control of that money would have. The Pac-2 schools have said they plan to keep their budgets at a Power 5 level and that they would need a good portion of that money to do so.
It’s also not clear whether MWC schools want to rebuild the Pac-12. Some members were frustrated by the lack of proactivity within the MWC, such as allowing the American Athletic Conference to admit several Texas schools in 2021. However, joining the Pac-2 would come with all sorts of unknowns. Aside from leftover money and a much-diminished brand, it’s not clear what benefits that would bring, especially with next year’s College Football Playoff poised to move to a 5+7, 12-team model. (Noteworthy: WSU President Kirk Schulz, as representative of the Pac-12 CFP, must agree to this change in order for it to be implemented. He has signaled his willingness to negotiate.)
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The Pac-2 also does not have a media rights deal for next year, and the conference is named in several lawsuits and an ongoing case with the National Labor Relations Board. What would make the league so attractive to MWC schools that they would pay an exit fee or try to disband the MWC to leave a few laggards behind?
Oregon State and Washington State could simply join the Mountain West and enjoy a significant financial advantage, but the fact that that hasn’t happened yet shows how undesirable that option is for them. At least for now.
The main question right now is: Can Oregon State and Washington State float in purgatory for a year or two and hope something better comes along? Whether it’s finding a way to rebuild the conference or hoping for a Power 4 conference? They may have a short-term court victory, but they are running out of time to plan for the future.
“These are very unique circumstances that really haven’t been tried before,” the first school source said. “There’s a lot to figure out.”
(Photo: James Snook / USA Today)