January 22, 2024, 5:03 am ET
January 22, 2024, 5:03 am ET
the projectionist
Some films are likely to receive double-digit nominations. Photo credit: Sinna Nasseri for The New York Times
The questions and answers and cocktail parties are done. The votes have been cast. And on Tuesday we'll find out which films and artists have a chance at the Oscars when the Oscar nominations are announced.
It's been an unusually strong year for films, which meant members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences had to make some tough decisions before voting ended last week. As I've written about this awards season, there are simply more good films and great performances than awards to recognize them this year. As I made predictions, I was busy trying to narrow down the list. But that also means I have some ideas about the names and titles Zazie Beetz and Jack Quaid will announce when they announce the nominees at 8:30 a.m. on ABC and Oscars.com. Here's what awaits you:
“Barbenheimer”: The juggernaut of “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” dominated the box office last summer and continues to be a force when it comes to awards. Both films performed strongly last week when the acting, directing and producing guilds announced their nominations, and spots for both on the best picture list are all but guaranteed. For the biopic Oppenheimer, Christopher Nolan is now the presumed front-runner for a directing nomination, and it's a good bet that Cillian Murphy and Robert Downey Jr. will be among the acting nominees. With “Barbie” the picture in the individual categories is a little less clear. Director Greta Gerwig and leading actress Margot Robbie are likely, but not certain, to land roles, while Ryan Gosling should be guaranteed a supporting role.
Double-digit nominations: I expect “Barbie,” “Oppenheimer” and the historical thriller “Killers of the Flower Moon” to each score double-digit nominations. Thanks to the shortlists the Academy released last month, we already know that these films have a good chance of competing in technical categories like film music and sound. Still, there's one race in which “Barbie” doesn't come out on top: Although three songs from the film — “I'm Just Ken,” “Dance the Night” and “What Was I Made For?” — all made it in the shortlist, in the final five only two songs are allowed per film.
“The Leftovers”: Alexander Payne's drama about a history teacher, a chef and a student who has to stay at a boarding school over the winter break has been well received throughout awards season. Paul Giamatti and Da'Vine Joy Randolph, who play the adults on campus, have already won major awards; Look for their names to appear on Tuesday. And in addition to a likely Best Picture nomination, there could also be one for directing and screenplay.
Acting categories: The two Golden Globe winners Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) and Emma Stone (“Poor Things”) are strong candidates for best actress; The question will be who fills the rest of the category. In addition to Giamatti and Murphy as best actor, you can expect Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”) and Jeffrey Wright (“American Fiction”), although only one position leaves a question mark. In the supporting categories, Robert De Niro (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) will likely join Downey and Gosling, while Jodie Foster (“Nyad”), Emily Blunt (“Oppenheimer”) and Danielle Brooks (“The Color Purple”) will join probably line up next to Randolph.
The best picture view: The safest bets are “Oppenheimer,” “Barbie” and “Killers of the Flower Moon.” “The Holdovers” and “Poor Things” are also safe. I predict that “Past Lives” and “American Fiction” will make it as Passion Picks and that there is room for the ambitious biopic “Maestro.”
Foreign language surprises: For best picture, I'm also betting that French courtroom drama “Anatomy of a Fall” and German-language Holocaust drama “The Zone of Interest” will catch the attention of the Academy's increasingly international voting body.
On the bladder: “The Color Purple,” “May December,” “Society of the Snow” and “Origin” are also hoping for the big prize, but were slow starters.
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