Let's make another choice for our NHL sports bet on Friday, shall we?
And this time I'm picking a player, a bet guy, who has a 25-12 record this season. If you had risked $10 on each of these, you would have made a total profit of $109, an incredible return on investment of 29.5%.
Without further ado, one of my favorite National Hockey League bets for Friday, December 29th is that Sean Durzi of the Arizona Coyotes will score at least one point on Friday night in Anaheim.
Photo Getty Images via AFP
At the time of writing, the best odds were 2.30 in decimal format. Other betting providers had odds between 2.10 and 2.25.
Let me explain why I think this is a smart bet. Durzi has played 28 games this season. In those games, he scored at least one point 13 times, meaning he did so in 46.4% of his games.
A high probability
Now, betting at odds of 2.30 is a smart decision as long as your probability of winning is greater than 1 divided by 2.30, which is 43.5%.
This is clearly the case as not only did Durzi do it quicker, but he also faces a subpar defensive unit on Friday. In fact, the Ducks rank 22nd in the league in goals allowed per game.
He is burning!
It's also interesting to see how productive Durzi has been lately. He scored eight points in his last five games.
To top it off, my mathematical model agrees with this choice. After analyzing the numbers, the probability of Durzi collecting at least one point in this game is estimated at 47.9%.
In terms of odds, this means that as long as you get odds of at least +109 in American format or 2.09 in decimal format, it is a smart bet.
Nice holidays!