In this article I will share my favorite NHL sports bet for Wednesday, December 20th. But before I reveal my choice, I would like to answer a frequently asked question: What is the best sport to bet on?
Which is the most lucrative?
For me, the answer is not about a specific sport or league. By far the most profitable bets are player suggestion bets (prop bets).
The numbers speak for themselves. Take a look at the incredible profits we've had on these types of bets so far this season (when I include both my columns in Le Journal and those on my website).
NHL: 22-12 record, +7.60 units
NBA: 25-19 record, +2.66 units
NFL: 60-40 record, +13.49 units
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TOTAL: 107-71, +23.75 units
If you had placed a one unit bet on each bet, you would have had a total profit of 23.75 units. More specifically, if your average bet is $1, your profit is $1 x 23.75 = $23.75. That's a big win, right?
If you do the math, the corresponding return on investment, commonly called ROI, for these betting proposals involving 178 players is +13.3%.
Okay, speaking of this type of bet, I'm going to make an exception and name one of these as my Wednesday pick.
For December 20th, I recommend Gabriel Vilardi of the Winnipeg Jets for over 2.5 shots on goal.
Photo Getty Images via AFP
The best available odds as of Wednesday morning were 2.10 in decimal notation. Based on my statistical model, this is a solid bet.
He is burning!
Vilardi had a slow start to the season with his new team. In his first seven games, he completed just two passes and took more than 2.5 shots just twice.
But he's been on fire ever since. He seems to have gotten used to his new club.
Let's take a look at his last five games. During this time he had 2.5 shots on goal and also scored four goals and three assists. It is wonderful!
That alone was enough to tempt me to make this bet. But there is more!
Vilardi faces the Detroit Red Wings, who have allowed the 11th-most shots on goal per game this season. In other words, they are below average when it comes to stopping the opponent from putting the puck into the net.