He doesn't wear the typical costume of an elected official. No gray pleated trousers. No suit and no tie. Rather, a beige jacket and a green and black cap with the name of his city written on it: Conception Bay South.
Ken McDonald is a proud Newfoundlander. He was born on the island. He became mayor there and became a Liberal MP in 2015, a victory he largely credits to Justin Trudeau. He was the one who won the election. He convinced Canadians that it was time to elect a new governing party, Mr. McDonald recalls.
But today, the elected official from Avalon — a largely rural constituency — wonders whether the Liberal leader is doing more damage than anything else: Locally, he explains, we're almost seeing hatred toward Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
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Liberal Ken McDonald has represented the riding of Avalon, Newfoundland since 2015.
Photo: Radio-Canada / Benoit Roussel
He claims his voters told him his chances of re-election would be better if Mr. Trudeau wasn't party leader. Ken McDonald therefore believes a leadership review is necessary because it is not clear to him whether Justin Trudeau is still the right person to lead the Liberal troops.
He would like to see some sort of vote of confidence in the party, where members could speak out and other candidates interested in the leadership could step forward.
Let's get this straight. And if people still tend to keep the leader we have now, then that's fine. But at least the people have a say in the direction the party takes.
Against a flagship measure of his government
This is not the first time that the Atlantic MP has caused a stir. Last fall, he voted in favor of a Conservative motion to end carbon pricing, one of the Trudeau government's flagship policies.
At that moment, the phone calls multiplied so he could get his bearings. The Prime Minister's Office [m’a appelé]. Various ministers contacted me. “I had a meeting with the whip,” he says. The pressure was on, but I was determined because I knew the people around me wanted me to vote that way.
Ken McDonald argues that rural voters, of which there are many in his district, have no alternative to cars and should not be affected by carbon pricing. This is despite the government increasing the surcharge for those living outside urban areas last October. He argues that it is the densely populated places that are the problem and should therefore be targeted primarily by the tax.
The Newfoundland MP, like other elected officials in the region, pushed for Justin Trudeau's announcement last October of the temporary suspension of prices for oil heaters – an expensive heating method widely used in the Atlantic. In fact, around 30% of the population still relies on heating oil.
In making the announcement, Ottawa also promised more generous subsidies for heat pump purchases.
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Justin Trudeau surrounded by several of his Atlantic MPs in Parliament in Ottawa last October. (archive photo)
Photo: The Canadian Press / Sean Kilpatrick
For Ken McDonald, this exemption is a step in the right direction, but not enough to truly improve the Prime Minister's image in his region. The Liberal government is seen as a worn-out government. People are saying maybe it's time for a change, he believes.
Every leader, every party has an expiration date. Our expiration date has been reached.
The latest Abacus* poll (new window), conducted in early January, showed the Conservatives with a 12-point lead in the Atlantic. Pierre Poilievre's troops received 43% of voting intentions versus 31% for Justin Trudeau's team.
However, the region's four provinces – New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador – have often been fertile ground for the Liberals, who currently hold 24 of 32 seats. When Justin Trudeau was first elected in 2015, all Atlantic cruises were painted red.
In Newfoundland and Labrador alone, where the Liberals hold six of the province's seven seats, Ken McDonald believes the Conservatives could win a majority after the next election. “My biggest fear is that we will lose the government and someone else will take power,” says Mr McDonald.
Justin Trudeau annoys me
A visit to Ken McDonald's constituency allows us to understand where his concerns come from. Locally, it's easy to find voters expressing weariness with Justin Trudeau.
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Voters met at Tiny's Bar and Grill in Paradise, Newfoundland.
Photo: Radio-Canada / Benoit Roussel
At Tiny's Bar and Grill we meet three retired office workers, all of whom have already supported the Liberals. But one of them, Jeanette Dyke, is considering voting for the Conservatives this time. “I can’t smell Justin Trudeau anymore,” she said before enjoying some good fish and chips.
Jeanette Dyke has trouble defining what she doesn't like about the Liberal leader – perhaps the impression that he doesn't listen to people – but her resentment seems almost instinctive.
Okay, Justin Trudeau has charisma, but he annoys me. He's too annoying.
To her, Trudy Quinlan describes herself as a die-hard liberal – she can't change that, she was born that way, she says with a laugh. She intends to vote for Mr. Trudeau's candidate in the next election, but continues to criticize it. In their opinion, the chef has served his time. Justin did a good job […] But it's time for him to go because people are getting tired of him, she decides.
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Chef Trevor Whelan-King attended a Pierre Poilievre meeting in St. John's, Newfoundland, last fall.
Photo: Radio-Canada / Benoit Roussel
In the kitchen, the words about Justin Trudeau are hardly more positive. He is very arrogant, says chef Trevor Whelan-King. I don't get the impression that he has people's well-being at heart. Like so many voters, he wants politicians to find a brake on inflation that reduces the cost of living. Everything costs more and more. We are on an island, we have to transport everything [par bateau]he explains.
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Amanda Bittner believes inflation is making things particularly difficult for governments currently in power.
Photo: Radio-Canada / Benoit Roussel
Memorial University political science professor Amanda Bittner is used to hearing speeches like this. “Everyone is frustrated,” she told us in an interview, and in many situations it’s easy to place all the blame on Justin Trudeau.
Like many governments around the world, the federal Liberal Party is becoming the catalyst for everyone's fatigue. We want simple solutions, that's what we find with these people [au pouvoir] have caused many of our problems, explains Professor Bittner.
Whether the blame is justified or not, Ken McDonald senses that Pierre Poilievre sauce is catching on in certain parts of the Atlantic. He talks about affordability. That's what people want to hear, he emphasizes.
The rebel MP doesn't go so far as to completely reject Justin Trudeau – he even describes his leader as someone who is intelligent and does well in the election campaign – but also explains that sometimes a leader or party tries to stay in power long. For him, liberals need to find a way to change things so that people see the political party as a new force.
Ken McDonald has not yet decided whether he will run again in the next election. However, he leaves a pessimistic forecast: the next election will undoubtedly be one of the most difficult we have had in this country for a long time.
In collaboration with Marie Chabot-Johnson
*The survey was conducted by the Abacus Data Panel of 1,500 Canadians and was conducted January 4-9 using an online questionnaire.
For reference, a probability sample of this size would have had a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points, 19 out of 20.