Let me first look back at yesterday's result. We picked the Calgary Flames as underdogs to collect the points in the standings. They certainly did that with a convincing 6-3 win over the Winnipeg Jets. This selection was supported by the “porous defence”, my take on betting which is helping us destroy the bookies this season!
As far as the National League (NHL) pick of the day goes, I won't be picking an underdog this time. Instead, I prefer a solid grab-and-go favorite. This has nothing to do with any of my top 10 betting systems, but I really like the New York Rangers' chances of defeating the Dallas Stars at Madison Square Garden tonight.
Most oddsmakers currently favor the Rangers with decimal odds between 1.69 and 1.74. I believe these provide added value.
Here are some reasons that explain my choice. Although they looked a little sluggish against the Islanders on Sunday, the Rangers came from behind to win. Not only have they proven that their franchise has great class, but they have also shown that they can dig deep into their resources to turn a seemingly inevitable defeat into a victory. The best teams always seem to play with this confidence, no matter how big the gap is between them. That was a clear win at the expense of their big rivals from New York!
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On the other hand, there are a few reasons why I'm not excited about stars.
Yesterday they seemed up to the task, but they found a way to suffer a shootout loss to the Boston Bruins even though victory was within reach. Dallas dominated shots 46-30 against a top team. However, they ended the day in failure.
It must have been demoralizing. Now the Stars only have 24 hours to regroup and prepare for the decisive game against the Rangers. I believe this will be an extremely difficult task for their players.
I can only imagine that facing the Bruins and Rangers within 24 hours is a very complicated task. It's up to Peter DeBoer to motivate his men for this game and that's a job I don't want to do!
The Stars will likely be missing certain key pieces of their lineup. Matt Duchene presents a questionable case as he is still dealing with a lower body injury. A line can also be drawn under the name Miro Heiskanen, who receives parental leave after the birth of his child. In addition, the stars already have to make do without Jani Hakanpaa and Nils Lundkvist.
Rangers will go into the game with increased confidence having won their last seven meetings. In this sequence they had the upper hand over their opponents with 31 goals to 16. They are looking more and more like the team that will win the Stanley Cup in June or at least make the playoffs.
One area that concerns me heading into this game is how well the Stars offense has performed this season. They lead the league in total goals scored per game. They have an average of 3.76, which is impressive!
The Rangers aren't bad offensively either. New York is averaging 3.36 per game while they are about the same level as the Stars in total shots: They have shot 30.9 compared to 31.3 for the Blueshirts.
Without a doubt, the Stars are relying on a huge offensive. So the Rangers will need a strong performance from their goalkeeper. Jonathan Quick is identified as the likely starter. So far he has done well when given the opportunity to start between the posts. He played in 20 games, posting a 13-4-2 record, a 2.36 goals-against average and a sparkling .917 save percentage.
The Stars, for their part, will basically count on Scott Wedgewood, whose statistics are not exactly outstanding. He has maintained a GAA of 3.03 and his save percentage is just under .900.
On paper, this duel seems very close. However, I think fatigue will be a big factor in the stars' performance. Coming back 24 hours after a tough game and shootout loss to the Bruins will impact their players both physically and mentally. I expect the Rangers to completely dominate the Stars in this match. They will take it to the garden tonight!