As the series begins, it's time to face an exercise even more difficult and painful than the predictions. Nothing is more painful to the ego than going back to what my crystal ball revealed to you at the beginning of the season.
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At the risk of repeating ourselves, we must say it again and again. It is very easy to make predictions in the fall, then hide in a cave and hope that no one discovers the misdeeds committed.
I'd rather plead guilty, your honor! Isn't it said that a debt confessed is half forgiven?
Speaking of the half, I was actually correct on seven of the 14 teams in the playoffs. It gets even worse when you consider the unpredictable side of the NFL. The fact is that I didn't have a little sticker in my notebook at school when I came back with a grade of 50%.
I wasn't wrong about the Bills, Dolphins, Chiefs, Eagles, Cowboys, Lions and 49ers. The Ravens, Browns, Steelers, Texans, Packers, Buccaneers and Rams have sowed fog in my vision and prevent me from uncorking a great wine to celebrate.
Well, I have to say that I gave the Jets and the Bengals a chance to qualify. Unfortunately, with Aaron Rodgers and Joe Burrow out, two predictions were already lost.
Some good shots
Bill Belichick and the Patriots ended a 24-year relationship after one miserable season. Getty Images via AFP
However, not everything is dark! For example, look at the Conference USA East Division standings.
It's like having access to Biff Tannen's sports almanac in Back to the Future.
All four teams fell in exactly the right order, and I even predicted the Patriots' demise with a 6-11 record, which earned me a few tomatoes from Pats Nation. Their fans were right, they easily outsmarted me by doing even worse than expected with a record of 4-13.
In what has now become a prophetic letter, I even announced that this would likely mean the end of Bill Belichick. No, but still!
I also announced to you the Texans' great comeback with a second place finish in their division. Bravo, but I still lacked boldness because they exceeded even my expectations by finishing 10-7 instead of 7-10 and taking first place in the bag.
I also showed some foresight by announcing the regression of two seemingly ascendant teams, the Chargers and the Giants, who were in the playoffs last year. Bingo!
Several bad shots
Bryce Young and the Panthers were the worst team in the NFL. Getty Images via AFP
It was probably at that moment when I dropped my crystal ball on the floor of a 27th floor… It's time to reveal to you my most woeful prediction, backed up by a rupture of my ego.
I confess that I live in a parallel universe in which the Panthers won their division with a 9-8 record and had a young, flamboyant quarterback in Bryce Young. Watching the Panthers finish in the basement of the league with a record of 2-15 made me want to live in the fetal position permanently. Let me check this, there must have been an error while editing, I'll get back to you…
I also told you that the Packers would have a difficult adjustment season with their new quarterback, Jordan Love, who ended up being a revelation. This is a case of gross indecency on my part and there is no way I'm going to ask for 200 before I go to jail!
What can we say about the Ravens, who I wrote off with a standard 9-8 record in the playoffs and who now have the best record in the NFL? There may not be prison for this offense, but there is at least the penalty box. Or even more boring, the confessional.
Don't talk to me about the Rams! I never saw it coming, but don't act like it. You neither!
The Super Bowl champion will…
In September I bet on the Bengals winning Super Bowl 58 against the 49ers. We'll bounce back for the Bengals when their divine child gets healthy again.
Of course I'll stay with the 49ers. I won't turn down a team that helps me look good in such a cruel exercise in self-deprecation. Their opponents, not the Bengals, will be the Bills.
Also, I'd love to call the Bills a win, but after difficult predictions, I'll go with the safer choice, the Niners. No hard feelings, Bills Mafia and good shows!
SERIES 1um ROUND
SATURDAY
HOUR TEAMS MY DECISIONS
4:30 p.m. Cleveland to Houston TEXAN
8:00 p.m. from Miami to Kansas City Chiefs
SUNDAY
HOUR TEAMS MY DECISIONS
1:00 p.m. Pittsburgh to Buffalo BILLS *(postponed to Monday, 4:30 p.m. due to storms)
4:30 p.m. Green Bay to Dallas COWBOYS
8 p.m. LA Rams at Detroit RAMS
MONDAY
HOUR TEAMS MY DECISIONS
8 p.m. Philadelphia at Tampa Bay EAGLE
* On leave: Ravens, 49ers
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS: 10 out of 16 (62.5%)
OVERALL THIS SEASON: 174 out of 272 (64%)
THE CHOICES OF NEWSPAPER
Cleveland Browns (11-6) v. Houston Texans (10-7)
TWO BEAUTIFUL SURPRISES
CJ Stroud will make his first career playoff start. Getty Images via AFP
Who would have dared to predict a playoff appearance for the Browns and Texans? These two teams were in the basement of their respective divisions a year ago and now have the highest hopes.
The Browns come to Houston with an elite defense that has held opponents to a league-high 4.5 yards per play. Myles Garrett will certainly torment rookie quarterback CJ Stroud, as will the secondary. The Browns threw 18 interceptions, the third-highest total this season.
There's also good old Joe Flacco, who experiences a resurrection that gets more attention than that of Lazarus in the Bible. He has won his last four starts with gains of over 300 yards each and 11 touchdown passes. He's used to running on water in the playoffs, with a record of 10-5, including 8-5 on the road.
The Texans won't be left out with Stroud. The team is young and could suffer from a lack of experience, but Stroud is truly special. Typically, rookie quarterbacks struggle (1-5 in the playoffs in their first start in the last 10 years), but he can benefit from a defense that isn't the same on the road. The Browns have given up 13.9 points per game in Cleveland and 29.4 points per game on the road.
My prediction: Browns 20 Texans 24
Miami Dolphins (11-6) v. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)
EXPLOSIVE POTENTIAL
Tyreek Hill will look to make big plays and some antics against his former team. Getty Images via AFP
The most explosive offense in the league is no longer that of the Chiefs, but that of the Dolphins. However, some factors can slow down the machine.
The first of these factors is the freezing cold forecast in Kansas City. The temperature will be below zero and it is known that the dolphins do not have much success in such an environment. Additionally, whether it's cold or not, their record of 4-9 since last year in December and January doesn't inspire confidence.
There's a lot of talk about Tyreek Hill's expected return to Kansas City, but therein lies the other factor that could limit the Dolphins' offensive output. Hill is dealing with an ankle injury and another in his quadriceps. Jaylen Waddle has also been out of action for two weeks and his presence is uncertain.
The Dolphins' ground game with Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane is highly underrated, and the Chiefs rank 18th against the run. This could be key for the Dolphins in cold weather.
The Chiefs defend very well against the pass and with 57 sacks on the clock, there won't be much room for Tua Tagovailoa. Patrick Mahomes' offense hasn't gotten going in several weeks, but the Dolphins' defense has been so plagued by injuries, especially on the front line, that there's reason to believe an awakening is coming.
My prediction: Dolphins 20 Chiefs 24
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) vs. Buffalo Bills (11-6)
ON A RUN
Carrier James Cook will look to continue its momentum. Getty Images via AFP
Even though their games are sometimes closer than they should be, the Bills are one of the teams of the moment with five wins in a row. Their 5-1 record against playoff teams shows that they have been in playoff mode for some time.
It's been a pretty heartbreaking season for quarterback Josh Allen, who alternates between spectacularly impossible plays and hair-raising turnovers. When it comes to winning a match, he is often at his best. The offense must continue to strike a balance between Allen and running back James Cook, as the Steelers are giving up 115 yards on the ground per game.
The Bills are 7-1 at home, with an average margin of victory of 14.8 points. They are clearly in their element in Buffalo.
The Steelers' offense has experienced encouraging ups and downs since the arrival of Mason Rudolph at quarterback. As a starter, he is 3-0, completing 74.3% of his passes and the Steelers have averaged 27 points with him.
Defensively, however, the loss of head ripper TJ Watt is likely to have fatal consequences. In 11 games without him over the years, the Steelers' record is 1-10, with 26.3 points allowed per game, compared to 19.8 when he plays.
My prediction: Steelers 13 Bills 26
Green Bay Packers (9-8) v. Dallas Cowboys (12-5)
BIG ADVANTAGE OF THE COUNTRY
Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott are under a lot of pressure. Getty Images via AFP
There is currently no home advantage more significant in the NFL than the Cowboys' in Dallas. At Jerry Jones' palace, the locals have won their last 16 games, including eight this season, by an average margin of 21.5 points.
For the Packers, the most important thing will be to slow down receiver CeeDee Lamb. Since last year, he has collected 53 receptions of 20 yards or more, a league high. Green Bay's defense allows 10.3 yards per pass, which ranked them 18th. Lamb has had seven games with 11 or more receptions this season, showing his consistency.
Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy won't want to lose face against the team he led from 2006 to 2018. A premature exit could even cost him his job.
The Packers should be taken seriously, even though they are the seventh seed in the conference. We talk a lot about Jordan Love and his fantastic rise with 18 touchdown passes in his last seven games, but we shouldn't sleep on running back Aaron Jones. Since Week 15, he has led the league with 411 rushing yards.
Ultimately, the Cowboys are too complete to pass up, but the team that hurts the Cowboys the most is often…the Cowboys.
My prediction: Packers 23 Cowboys 30
Los Angeles Rams (10-7) v. Detroit Lions (12-5)
WAIT 30 YEARS
Detroit fans hope to celebrate with Jahmyr Gibbs and the Lions. Getty Images via AFP
On January 8, 1994, 30 years ago, the Lions played their last playoff game in Detroit. It's hard to imagine how loud and crazy the fans will be at Ford Field.
There are the 30 years of endless waiting, but also the magnificent return of quarterback Matthew Stafford, who now leads the Rams' offense. His counterpart, Jared Goff, has been mocked so much over the years that it would be hard not to be happy for him when he has a strong game. He will certainly be motivated to make the man who chased him out of Los Angeles, head coach Sean McVay, look bad, who no longer believed in him.
The fact is, the Rams are clearly not easy prey. Before the break granted to their starters in Week 18, their average points per game over the last six matchups was 31.8.
When the quartet of Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams are healthy, this offense is formidable. Not to mention, there is one element of concern in Detroit and that is the Lions' defense. Since Week 9, the Lions are giving up 25.6 points per game and have given up at least 28 points four times.
We sincerely wish the resilient Lions fans that they finally find happiness. Really! But as unlucky birds, they are predicted to make a misstep at the wrong time.
My prediction: Rams 34 Lions 31
Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8)
TIME TO WAKE UP
AJ Brown and Jalen Hurts need to regain their confidence from the start of the season. AFP
Who will win this matchup between the Eagles, who continue to stall, and the Buccaneers, who finished the season quite well but are not very feared division champions?
The Eagles' slide is epic. With ten wins and one loss at the beginning of December, they seemed to be the kings of the world. Then five defeats in six games and it becomes hard to believe. Especially given that quarterback Jalen Hurts and his favorite receiver AJ Brown are suffering from health issues.
However, there is more than just the injuries to worry about. Since Week 13, the Eagles have the worst turnover differential in the league at -11. Great! They also finish the 2023 season with the fifth-worst point differential (+5) for a team with at least 11 wins. In short, there is definitely something wrong.
Everything is unpredictable on the Bucs side. The core is experienced, but there are still 14 players who have never played in a playoff game. How well will Baker Mayfield be able to run the offense? He had a great run until the final two weeks of the season, but he only gained 146 yards against the Eagles in September.
It might be a mistake to think that the Eagles could get back on track, but on paper they clearly have the more talented roster.
My prediction: Eagles 23 Buccaneers 17