Our staff’s best bets for Bulls vs. Bucks, Pelicans vs. Suns & More (April 17)

The NBA playoffs resume Sunday with a quad header on TNT and ABC beginning at 1:00 p.m. ET. Our NBA analysts have four best bets worth tracking, including one for each game. Check out tips and analysis from Brandon Anderson, Matt Moore and Raheem Palmer below.

NBA Odds & Tips

Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat

Brandon Anderson: The Hawks won twice to get out of the play-in tournament, but the way Atlanta is playing it sure looks like the Hawks expect to win at least a few more. Keep in mind this is a team that played in the Eastern Conference Finals last year and brought back almost the same roster. And right now it feels like this.

The Hawks dominated the Hornets and then withstood a barrage of early 3s to win on the road in Cleveland to get this matchup with Miami and it’s a matchup that suits the Hawks pretty well. The Hawks are in the top five in free-throw rate while Miami fouls in fifth, so an aggressive defense will help Atlanta score a lot of easy points. The Heat defense also gives up the fourth-most 3-point attempts in the league, and that, too, plays right into Atlanta’s hands.

Miami’s offense isn’t nearly as good as Atlanta’s, and the Heat could be surpassed head-on if the Hawks’ shots come up. The Heat almost always have a bad defender like Duncan Robinson or Tyler Herro on the court, and Trae Young will be chasing them. Miami also has turnover problems, so some of the problems with Atlanta’s defense could be offset.

Clint Capela won’t play here, but to be honest, I like Atlanta more. Onyeka Okongwu is a great space defender and a great team defender, and he’s a better match for Bam Adebayo and Miami. I was expecting the Hawks to have to start the transition from Capela to Okongwu to get a run anyway, so maybe the injury just forced them.

This is a 1v8 series, but it feels more like 3v6 or 4v5 to me. There is no talent gap between these teams, and we saw last year that the teams that won the play-in did well in Game 1 as well. We also know how much Trae Young loves taking his show to the streets against a hostile playoff crowd. I’ll take the Hawks here and also play a bit on the money line at +230.

I think Atlanta is winning at least two games of this series and is in the process of progressing live. You can also play Atlanta +1.5 at +135 at BetMGM. If you want Atlanta to win here and join the series, you can play a game 1 win plus a series win at +550.

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Brooklyn Nets vs. Boston Celtics

Raheem Palmer: My model makes this game closer to Celtics -7, even with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving in the lineup. I know that’s a pretty big difference, but this Nets team hasn’t been very good this season.

Many people might be tempted to back the Nets as they score 124.8 points per 100 possessions in lineups featuring Durant and Irving, but this is a team that can’t consistently stop, meaning they constantly find themselves in coin tosses and its stars needs to score 60-80 points to win.

The Durant-Irving-Curry-Drummond-Brown starting lineup scores 118.9 points per 100 possessions, but gives up 117.9 at the opposite end of the floor for a net rating of just +1.1.

My power ratings have the Celtics as the best team in the league (even better than the Suns) based primarily on their defense, which ranks first in the NBA and only 106.9 points per 100 possessions in their non-garbage time minutes allowed. The Celtics are the more complete team, and if they’re able to take the efficiency of Durant and Irving just a little bit, they should win this game and this series.

The Celtics offense can be inconsistent at times, but they are still 10th in offensive rating in their non-garbage time minutes (114.3). The Nets are unlikely to slow this team down as they only have 21st in defensive rating (113.6), 22nd in turnover rate (13.2%) and last in defensive rebound rate (28.1%) report an inability to end possessions even when stopped.

When you’re betting on the Nets, you’re essentially betting that Durant and Irving’s shotmaking can overcome any of their other problems that might happen, but they have to endure extremely heavy workloads. In the play-in tournament against the Cavaliers, the Nets just barely got past the non-durant minutes.

That being said, I think Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Marcus Smart are ready to take the leap to becoming the crème de la crème of the Eastern Conference. Tatum’s 54-point game against the Nets in March showed he can be the best player of the series.

This is a team that made it to the Eastern Conference Finals in three of four seasons before having a poor year with a first-round elimination that ended in 2021 against the Brooklyn Nets.

To quote James Brown… for the Celtics, this is The Big Payback.

I will support the Celtics in Game 1 and for the series.

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Chicago Bulls vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Matt Moore: Division games by Mike Budenholzer.

This is one of my favorite trends in all of basketball and I will keep riding it until the horse gives up. Or deer. However. The Bucks under Budenholzer are 54-8 straight up and 44-18 ATS against division opponents. If favored by more than nine points in these games, the Bucks are 31-1 straight up and 23-9 ATS.

I understand the division was weak, and these are regular season games, not playoff games. But I think part of it has to do with familiarity. The Bucks know these teams, and their style works better the more they get used to defending and attacking a team.

Add to that the fact that you only want to shoot 3s against the Bucks and the Bulls have a low 3-point ratio. This is just a nightmare for a worn-out Bulls squad with an inexperienced bench.

Finally, Mike Budenholzer is a double-digit favorite in the playoffs with 7-2-1 ATS.

Trust the dollars; Fear the deer.

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New Orleans Pelicans vs. Phoenix Suns

Brandon Anderson: The suns are really good. Maybe you noticed. Phoenix went 33-5 this season against under-.500 teams. Two of those losses came in the last week of the season when Phoenix was already resting for the important games, and another against Portland earlier in the season when the Blazers were still in the playoffs. The Suns don’t mess with underperforming teams.

Kudos to the Pelicans for beating a 34-win Spurs roster and a Clippers team that is short on its two biggest superstars, and well to New Orleans for rebounding all the way from 1-12 to the playoffs to reach. It’s a really fantastic achievement. But that doesn’t mean the pelicans are any good, or that they’re even in the same universe as the mighty suns.

New Orleans has the sixth-worst record for a playoff team in NBA history. The Pelicans rank just above the top 10 teams in the league on both offense and defense. New Orleans is the worst team left in the playoffs, and until proven otherwise, Phoenix is ​​the best.

The Pelicans are doing two things particularly well: They’ve led the league in forced turnovers since early February, and they’re one of the best offensive rebound teams in the league. That helps a weak offensive team get extra chances to keep things close. But the Suns are a great rebound team, and they almost never turn the ball over with Chris Paul and Devin Booker. As long as only two Pels benefits.

The Suns are double-digit favourites. They will be back in Game 2. At this point, we’re basically one game 3 win away from a win, and the Suns will be big favorites there as well. This is technically a Game 1 game as the Suns can’t sweep without winning the first game, but I’m treating it more like a juiced Game 3 moneyline. Maybe CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram will just get super hot and eventually steal a game, but I’ll take my chances.

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