Memphis vs. Houston
The American Athletic Conference tournament stayed the same and gave us a match between two top teams that really don’t like each other.
Houston has dominated everyone in the AAC this season except for his rival in Memphis. The Cougars hold a 15-3 record in conference play but have lost two to the Tigers. They now have the opportunity to avenge those losses, but it won’t be an easy feat as Memphis has been one of the hottest teams in the country over the past two months.
Penny Hardaway’s team has won 12 of their last 13 games and covered 10 of those games. Memphis lived up to preseason expectations as the group finally recovered.
Will Houston get revenge or will Memphis end the season in the final game of the 2022 regular season?
Penny Hardaway has a dynamic frontcourt duo in DeAndre Williams and Jalen Duren. In total, they scored 23 points and 14 rebounds per game. Williams has shot 56% from the field this season while Düren leads the conference with 62% of shots. Duren also leads the AAC in rebounding and blocks per game.
Both Williams and Duren missed a long time at the beginning of the season, and it was not until mid-January that they finally ended up on the floor together.
The Tigers play up and down at lightning speed, dominating the paint. The group ranks fifth in the nation in offensive rebounding and is ranked 12th in charities. This is important against the Houston defense, whose tenacity results in one of the highest foul rates in the country.
Scoring from close range against a Memphis defense is no easy task. The Tigers hold opponents at 45% on two-point attempts (19th) and block 17% of shot attempts, the fourth highest in the nation.
Houston has also cooked recently, winning eight of their last 10 games. The only problem is that both of these losses came at the expense of Memphis.
According to KenPom, Cougars are in the top 12 in terms of attacking and defensive effectiveness. Kelvin Sampson’s group plays with high intensity and holds opponents up to 44% of the field, which is the third highest in the country.
Sampson deserves to be named Coach of the Year after his season with Houston. Especially since the program lost All-American quarterback Marcus Sasser in the first month of the season.
Cougars are ruthless in attacking glass, finding extended holdings at the highest price in the country. Offense is dependent on paint scoring, with the group scoring 55% on two-point attempts and scoring 53% of the total. Houston was able to expose some of the smaller teams in the conference with his size, but not the Memphis Tigers.
Memphis vs. Houston
Houston plays bullyball against the rest of the American Conference, dominating them on glass and causing many losses. Memphis beat Houston in their game, winning the rebounding and losing battle in the first two games.
Good ball movement has been proven to bother Houston’s defense. The Cougars are only 2-4 with 14 or more assists this season. Memphis has assisted nearly 60% of field goals this season and has topped the mark in every game since November.
The defense plays in favor of Memphis, who have kept eight of their last 13 opponents under 40% from the field. The Tigers are hot as a gun and have covered the spread in 10 of those 13 matches.
I expect this trend to continue for Penny Hardaway, who finally has a good program in time for the deep tournament.
Choice: Memphis +4 (Play to +3)
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