Although economics is not an exact science, the verb “owl” is not commonly used among those who study it professionally, since it is known that every movement of resources has its rational explanation. In other words: behind a positive result there are always well-considered decisions with a clear political goal, which are made by women and men and are therefore responsible for them. This applies even if the results are negative: bad luck has little to do with it. So it makes no sense to invoke an adverse fate in the hope of undermining the path of your political opponent. However, given that there are many prophets of doom in the opposition forces, especially when there are no concrete arguments to counter, it is a good idea to say: Dear owls, apply your exorcisms elsewhere, because this is not the case your time. The thought comes immediately when one observes the flood of economic figures with the plus sign in front of them that accumulate at the end of the year and allow us to draw a first organic balance of the activities of the Meloni government. (…)
(…) To be clear: not everything went well and not all signs are more encouraging (think of the national debt, which is now dangerously close to 2,900 billion), but if we think like no other about the turmoil caused by inflation that has been observed for forty years, from the sharp rise in interest rates, from a geopolitical instability that does not seem to be abating, many dangers have been objectively avoided thanks to a government that has shown determination and foresight, especially among its most representative representatives has the hallmark of his actions. Prime Minister Meloni was therefore right when he highlighted “the exceptional result” on the PNRR front, where just yesterday the Italian request for payment of the balance of the fifth installment was transferred to Brussels. Of course, the question of blocking the numerous funded projects included in the 102 billion already collected remains open and on this front it is legitimate to complain of dissatisfaction, so it is good that in 2024 more than a mere invitation to the central and local bureaucracies are committed to the issue in order to become part of the project and not remain on the sidelines. This does not detract from the merit of transforming the plan from a dream book of the Conte government into a credible political ambition; Above all, capable, at least on paper, of seriously contributing to the digital and green emancipation of the country.
In addition, as the Brussels Commission testifies, some pockets of resistance on the front of state concessions and urban mobility, the reforms are taking shape, not least the fiscal reform that will be completed in 2024 and corresponds to a need that in the country thirty had matured for years.
The sharp increase in the cost of money has not helped, which has not only put a strain on the treasury's coffers due to the huge interest it will continue to pay for many months to come, but has also set in motion strong growth that has also been very well positioned and now has to cope with the sharp decline in private investment. Nevertheless, consumption has held up quite well: this is also thanks to the level of employment, which reached a record of 23.6 million active workers this year and reduced the unemployment rate to 7.6%. In addition, the 2.7% cyclical decline in industrial production was not reflected in exports, which ended the year at the highest level ever at 635 billion.
As for energy costs for families and businesses, although they are still high compared to the pre-war situation, there has been an overall halving, which is currently expected to continue. And not just thanks to the market.
In short, a general stability that would not have existed if the Minister of Economy had not put an end to the madness such as super bonuses and citizenship income, thanks to a work to rationalize resources that now really only rewards the latter and avoids new abysses in the national balance sheet. Finally, as regards the 2024 budget adopted yesterday by Parliament, it is certainly not the best means of promoting growth; However, it is the best that can be done, taking into account the needs of the country, by maintaining a balance sheet that has won the approval of the markets and the Brussels Commission. An applause that finds its summary in the figures presented yesterday by the Italian Stock Exchange, which has ever been the most sincere vote on the actions of governments. Well, in the 12 months, the BTP Bund spread collapsed from 219 to 168, the Piazza Affari stock index grew by 28% and returned to 2008 levels, the total value of the 429 listed companies jumped to 761 billion euros (+21 .6%) and 39 new additions to the list, the highest number within Euronext, which brings together seven of the most important European stock exchanges.